Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- US stocks ended the week mixed, with the Nasdaq rising 0.40% and the S&P 500 gaining 0.09%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.27% as markets weighed stronger employment data against renewed Middle East tensions. Higher oil prices and elevated Treasury yields added to inflation concerns, while energy and technology helped support equities.
- Oil prices rose 9.42% to $91.30 a barrel as renewed US Iran hostilities increased concerns over supply disruptions and inflation. Higher energy prices contributed to rising bond yields, with the 10 year US Treasury yield reaching 4.77%, increasing borrowing costs and adding pressure to equity valuations as investors await further inflation data and central bank decisions.
- US employment rebounded strongly in August, with payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, while slower wage growth pointed to easing inflation pressure. Business activity also remained robust, with both manufacturing and services PMI expanding and the Composite PMI reaching its strongest level in more than four years.
- US inflation data will be closely watched this week, with the August CPI and PPI reports likely to influence expectations for the Fed’s September rate decision. A cooler CPI reading could support a pause in rates, while stronger inflation may increase rate hike expectations and pressure equities, with Oracle earnings also in focus for signs of AI data center demand.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages were mixed.
- US and European bond were higher on the week
- The US Dollar Index moved lower towards a multi-week low.
- Gold futures sold off and bounced to end little changed on the week.
- Oil futures prices rallied through the week to a multi-month peak.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: The main central bank activity this week is the European Central Bank Monetary Policy Statement, Press Conference and Interest Rate Decision on Thursday.
Macro Data Watch: The main macro data release this week is the US CPI data on Friday. Some other releases of note are Japanese GDP on Tuesday, Chinese CPI on Wednesday and US PPI on Thursday.
US Labor Day Holiday is on Monday 7th September. US cash markets are closed, whilst futures markets observe a partial day.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 09/07/2026 | US Labor Day Holiday; German Industrial Production; EU GDP, Employment Change and Sentix Investor Confidence |
| 09/08/2026 | UK Retail Sales; Japanese GDP; Chinese Trade Reports |
| 09/09/2026 | Chinese CPI and PPI |
| 09/10/2026 | German HICP; ECB Monetary Policy Statement, Press Conference and Interest Rate Decision; US Initial Jobless Claims; PPI, Existing Home Sales Change and Monthly Budget Statement |
| 09/11/2026 | US CPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Inflation Expectations; UK GDP, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production and Consumer Inflation Expectations |
