Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- US stocks finished the week higher, led by the Nasdaq, which gained 2.1%, while the S&P 500 rose 1.2% and the Dow added 0.3%. Technology and growth stocks led the gains as investors continued to favour areas linked to the AI theme.
- US business activity accelerated sharply in September, with the Flash Composite PMI reaching its highest level in more than five years. Stronger growth was accompanied by rising input costs, increasing concerns for elevated inflation.
- US Treasury yields climbed as stronger economic data and renewed inflation concerns led investors to reassess the interest rate outlook. Weak demand at five year and seven year Treasury auctions added to selling pressure and pushed borrowing costs higher.
- Strong early demand for Meta’s Muse AI agent boosted investor enthusiasm and helped drive Meta shares higher. The launch has renewed interest in the potential commercial opportunities from consumer AI agents and the wider AI ecosystem.
- Markets will focus on the August PCE inflation report and September Employment report for clues about the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. JOLTS, ADP employment, ISM manufacturing and Micron’s earnings will provide further insight into economic and AI investment trends.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages were higher.
- US and European bond yields were higher on the week
- The US Dollar Index moved to a multi-week high.
- Gold futures were little changed for the week.
- Oil futures prices were choppy but ended the week lower.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: The main central bank activity this week is Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Statement, Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference on.
Macro Data Watch: The main macro data releases this week are the US PCE inflation data on Wednesday and US Employment report on Friday. Some other releases of note are UK GDP on Wednesday, Global Manufacturing PMI on Thursday and EU HICP on Friday.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 09/28/2026 | BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
| 09/29/2026 | RBA Monetary Policy Statement, Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference; EU Business Climate, Consumer Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator; Canadian GDP; US Housing Price Index, Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings |
| 09/30/2026 | Chinese PMI; German Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate and CPI; UK GDP; US PCE and ADP Employment Change, GDP, Personal Income and Personal Spending |
| 10/01/2026 | Global Manufacturing PMI; US Initial Jobless Claims and Challenger Job Cuts |
| 10/02/2026 | Japanese CPI and Unemployment Rate; EU HICP and Unemployment Rate; US Employment Report |
