Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- Fed slightly upbeat and reduced hawkishness, maintaining their funds target range at 5.25-5.50% for the second consecutive meeting.
- The US Treasury announced future bond sales, at the lower end of market expectations, conducting a $112 billion debt auction this week to refund $102.2 billion of notes maturing on November 15.
- The BoE left rates unchanged at 5.25%, but with a still a hawkish tone and highlighting recession fears.
- Apple earnings report slumps, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of declining revenue.
- US PMI data slightly disappoints, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI contracting.
- The US employment report indicated employers added 150,000 jobs in the month, falling short of the expected 180,000.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity index futures rebounded, technically securing at least short-term bull reversals.
- US and global yields moved significantly lower, with USTs reversing down from multi-year high yields.
- The US Dollar Index sold off from near multi-month highs, accelerating lower Friday.
- Gold futures consolidated last week near multi-month highs.
- Oil futures sold off through notable support last week, setting more bearish forces.
Key this week
General: US Daylight Saving Time ended at the weekend, so the time difference between the US and the rest of the planet is back to normal in most cases
Central Bank Watch: A relatively quiet week for CBs, we get Bank of Japan (BoJ) Meeting Minutes Monday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision and statement on Tuesday, with the standout being the Fed’s Powell is speaking on Wednesday.
Macro Data Watch: Also, a quiet week for data with European Services and Composite PMI Monday, China trade data Tuesday, German CPI Wednesday, and UK GDP plus Industrial and Manufacturing Production Friday, but no standout data from the US.
|Date||Major Macro Data|
|11/06/2023||BoJ Meeting Minutes; European Services and Composite PMI|
|11/07/2023||RBA interest rate decision and statement, China trade data, UK Retail Sales|
|11/08/2023||German CPI, Fed Powell speaks, EU Retail Sales|
|11/10/2023||RBA Monetary Policy Statement, UK GDP (MoM, QoQ, YoY), UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production|