Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- Global stock averages rally again, led by the US. This came after a surge in bond yields and Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s unexpectedly hawkish stance, halting the impressive 8 day winning streaks of both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, rarely seen in the last two decades.
- US Treasury auctions in focus and were generally well received. Treasury yields were on a general trend of decline through the middle of the week, seeing an upward shift on Thursday following the lacklustre 30-year Treasury auction.
- A slightly hawkish Powell, stressing that the Federal Reserve officials are not confident that interest rates are high enough to lower inflation to the target 2%. Highlighting this is a pause in rate rises, not an end.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity index futures rallied further, technically reinforcing reversals.
- US and global yields moved significantly lower again, with USTs reversing further down from multi-year high yields, despite a higher yield blip Thursday.
- The US Dollar Index posted a modest rebound after selling off from near multi-month highs.
- Gold futures plunge lower after previously consolidating near multi-month highs.
- Oil futures sold off even further through notable support last week, setting even more bearish forces.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: A very quiet week for CB with nothing of note apart from the US Fed speakers to stay in focus.
Macro Data Watch: An important week for data with CPI data releases from the US (Tuesday), UK (Wednesday) and the EU (Friday), plus Employment reports from the UK and EU (Tuesday), and Australia (Thursday), and US Retail Sales (Wednesday).
Earnings Watch: As we move to the end of the Q3 US earnings season, retail giants are reporting through the week; Home Depot (Tuesday), Target (Wednesday) and Walmart (Thursday).
|Date||Major Macro Data|
|11/13/2023||Nothing of note|
|11/14/2023||UK Employment report; EU Employment report and GDP; German ZEW Survey; US CPI|
|11/15/2023||Japan GDP; China Industrial Production and Retail Sales; UK inflation report (including CPI); US PPI and Retail Sales|
|11/16/2023||Australian Employment report; US Industrial Production|
|11/17/2023||UK Retail Sales; EU CPI|