Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- US equities ended the week mixed as technology and AI related stocks came under pressure, with the S&P 500 falling 1.95% and the Nasdaq declining 4.60%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.60%. Concerns over AI valuations and technology sector pricing weighed on sentiment, although gains in defensive sectors and lower Treasury yields helped cushion broader market weakness.
- US PCE inflation accelerated to its highest annual rate since 2023, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates this year, while stronger than expected Flash PMI data indicated the US economy remains resilient.
- Oil prices fell back towards pre conflict levels, with Brent crude dropping to around $72 per barrel and WTI slipping below $70 per barrel, as improving shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz eased concerns over global supply disruptions. Despite ongoing US and Iran tensions and isolated security incidents, investors focused on diplomatic progress, helping reduce inflation fears.
- Global PMI surveys and Thursday’s US Employment report will be the key economic data events this week, with traders looking for fresh insight into global growth and the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates following signs of labour market resilience.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages were lower.
- US and European bond yields were slightly lower on the week.
- The US Dollar Index moved to a multi-month high.
- Gold futures moved to a multi-month low.
- Oil futures prices moved to a multi-month low.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: The main central bank activity this week is the RBA Meeting Minutes on Tuesday plus the ECB’s annual central banking forum runs from Monday to Wednesday.
Macro Data Watch: The main macro data release this week is Global PMI data on Wednesday and Friday, plus the US Employment report on Thursday. Some other releases of note are the US JOLTS job openings and ADP payrolls on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, German Retail Sales and UK GDP on Tuesday plus EU HICP on Wednesday.
Friday is the US Independence Day holiday, US cash markets will be closed and futures equity average markets will observe a half day, closing at 12.00 CT.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 06/29/2026 | Japanese Retail Trade; EU Business Climate, Consumer Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator |
| 06/30/2026 | Japanese Unemployment Rate; RBA Meeting Minutes; Chinese PMI; German Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate and HICP; UK GDP; Canadian GDP; US Housing Price Index, Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings |
| 07/01/2026 | Global Manufacturing PMI; EU HICP, US ADP Employment change |
| 07/02/2026 | EU Unemployment Rate; US Employment reports and Factory Orders |
| 07/03/2026 | US Independence Day holiday; global (except US) Service and Composite PMI |
