- The Pound versus US Dollar forex rate, GBPUSD retains a positive tone.
- This has been assisted by the somewhat successful (for now) unlocking of the UK economy and a weakening US Dollar, as markets have shifted to more of a “risk on” theme.
- The “risk on” theme has been driven this week by positive trial results from Oxford University and Moderna with respect to a COVID-19 vaccine.
- This leaves the threat for further GBPUSD gains into today and latter July.
GBPUSD day trade outlook: Dip and bounce leaves positive tone
A Thursday setback below 1.2550/41 supports but to hold at 12520 above the better 1.2480/62 support lows, to hold onto the positive theme from Wednesday’s advance just to fall short of the 1.2669 recent peak, from 1.2650, plus from the strong, earlier July rally through key 1.2542 resistance (for an intermediate-term shift from neutral to bullish), to keep the risk to the upside into Friday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for 1.2624 and 1.2650/69; a break here quickly aims for 1.2687, even 1.2719.
- But below 1.2520 aims for 1.2480/62 and possibly opens risk down to 1.2411.
GBPUSD intermediate-term outlook
The early July push above 1.2542 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.
- Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for 1.2813, 1.3000 and maybe 1.3200.
- What changes this? Below 1.2251 shifts the intermediate-term bull trend straight to an intermediate-term bear trend.