Topping threat for the FTSE 100 (FTSE forecast)

Intermediate
  • A fading rebound for many global stock averages over the past 24 hours, after the late June-early July strong moves higher, for a deeper corrective setback threat into today.
  • The more negative tone has been driven by an absence of economic data, switching the focus back to threats from the global increase in new COVID-19 cases (in Melbourne, Australia, but particularly in some southern and western US states).
  • Here we look at the UK benchmark share index future, for our FTSE 100 forecast for today and into July. The FTSE 100 did NOT benefit from the more positive tone seen across other global share indices in late June-early July.

FTSE day trade outlook: Negative tone and downside risk to key support at 5930.5

A plunge lower Thursday through 6085 and 6040.5 supports, to reinforce the Tuesday-Wednesday selloff and reject Monday’s firm rally, and although still oscillating in a broader range, to switch the threat to the downside for Friday.

  • We see a downside bias for 5996/86.5 and 5952/50; a break here aims for key 5930.5 and maybe 5885.
  • But above 6100/01 opens risk up to 6172.5/75 and possibly 6224.5.

FTSE intermediate-term outlook

The early June rally to close the runaway bear gap from early March at 6282-6397 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a broader range seen as 6512.5 to 5930.5.

Upside risks: Above 6512.5 sets an intermediate-term bull trend to target 6871.5, 7000, 7439.5 and maybe 7629.5

Downside risks: Below 5930.5 sets an intermediate-term bear trend to target 5651, 5325/16.5 and 4733.

Daily FTSE Chart
Daily FTSE Chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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