US and global stick averages hit record levels after dolling US CPI

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments

• Global stock indices hit record levels last week, with better than expected US CPI data the main driving force.

• Recent economic data, including April’s US CPI report showing a slight easing in inflation and retail sales indicating flat performance, suggest a cooling economy, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to maybe consider interest rate cuts in the near future.

• Traders’ confidence in an early rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve has surged following cooler April inflation data, with the CPI rising slightly below expectations, pushing stocks to record highs and increasing the likelihood of a September rate cut to approximately 70%, although analysts caution that core inflation indicators remain resilient and mixed economic data suggests challenges persist.
• This week, attention centres on the Federal Reserve’s Minutes, expected to provide insight into potential rate cuts, and Nvidia’s fiscal earnings, anticipated to show significant growth driven by AI demand.

Global financial market developments

• US and global equity averages extended to new record highs in many places.
• US and to a lesser extent European bonds pushed to higher prices/ lower yields on the week.
• The US Dollar Index sold off with the lower US yields to a multi-week low.
• Gold futures rallied with the weakening US Dollar, back close to the record high.
• Oil futures stayed in consolidation mode, with a modest positive bias.

Key this week

Central Bank Watch: Central bank focus will be on the PBoC interest rate decision Monday, the RBA Meeting Minutes Tuesday and the RBNZ interest rate decision Tuesday. But the main spotlight will be on the FOMC Meeting Minutes Wednesday, as well as Fed speakers through the week.

Macro Data Watch: The main macro data releases this week are inflation data from Canada and the UK, but with a critical global focus on the flash PMI data on Thursday.

Steve Miley (The Market Chartist)

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued