Daily Digest:
w/c 15 July - Financials earnings reports kick off the week, then we get Netflix results Thursday. US Retail Sales is the standout macro data this week on Tuesday. We also get the latest ECB interest rate decision on Thursday.

US indices rally to records again but European averages suffer from political woes

Intermediate

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments

  • The S&P 500 and NASDAQ continue their positive momentum with record highs, while U.S. Treasury yields declined with softer-than-expected economic and inflation data.
  • May’s consumer price index data showed a greater-than-expected cooling of inflation, with annual CPI dipping to 3.3%, core CPI rising by only 0.2%.
US consumer price index
  • US Federal Reserve officials expect one rate cut this year, maintaining a hawkish stance despite economic moderation, while market analysts anticipate two cuts following softer-than-expected CPI data.
  • French and European markets tumbled amid political uncertainty following President Macron’s snap election announcement, with French bank stocks plummeting and borrowing costs soaring, driven by fears of a far-right victory and interventionist economic policies.
French President Macron

Global financial market developments

  • US equity averages extended to new record levels, whilst European averages significantly underperformed, with the French CAC plunging lower.
  • US and European bond were notably lower in yields on the week
  • The US Dollar Index broke up out of consolidation to a new multi-week high.
  • Gold futures were in negative consolidation mode after the prior week’s push lower.
  • Oil futures consolidated the prior week’s bullish move.

Key this week

Central Bank Watch: Central bank focus will be on the RBA Interest Rate Decision on Tuesday, BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Wednesday and PBoC and SNB Interest Rate Decisions on Thursday. But the main spotlight is on the BoE Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report on Thursday.

Macro Data Watch: The main macro data releases this week are inflation data from Germany, EU, and the UK and Retail Sales from China, Canada, US and UK, but with a critical global focus on the flash PMI data on Friday.

DateMajor Macro Data
06/17/2024Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales
06/18/2024RBA Interest Rate Decision and Statement; US Retail Sales; EU CPI
06/19/2024BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; UK CPI
06/20/2024PBoC Interest Rate Decision; German PPI; SNB Interest Rate Decision; BoE Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report
06/21/2024Global Flash PMI Data; Japanese CPI; UK Retail Sales

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued

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