Volatility Reigns With Heightened Geopolitical Tensions

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments

• Israel-Hamas war sparks flight to quality.

• Fed speakers pivot slightly dovish as higher yields “doing the fed’s dirty work”.
• Fed Minutes echo higher for longer mantra.
• US CPI warmer than expected, reflecting “sticky” inflation.

Global financial market developments

• US and global equity index futures rallied, then dipped last week, reinforcing a hesitant base. 
• US and global yields moved significantly back lower, after USTs hit multi-year high yields in early October.
• The US Dollar Index setback further from new multi-month highs, though rebounded into the end of the week.
• Gold futures rallied, then surged Friday with a +5-sigma rally (largest one-day move since Covid).
• Oil futures gapped up, dipped and then surged again Friday, keeping alive bullish forces.

Key this week

Central Bank Watch: A quiet week for central banks, though we do get Fed speakers through the week, which is the last week before the Fed speaker blackout period ahead of the early November FOMC Meeting. We get Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes on Monday and then the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) interest rate decision is on Friday. 

Macroeconomic Data Watch: US data is relatively light, with US Retail Sales the standout on Tuesday. We also get US Retail Sales data from China and the UK, but with the spotlight on Canadian, UK and EU CPI across Tuesday and Wednesday. The UK Employment report is also out Tuesday. 

Earnings Watch: US earnings season starts in earnest this coming week, with standouts the continuation of the releases from the financial sector, and with Tesla and Netflix both out Wednesday after the closing bell. 

Steve Miley (The Market Chartist)

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued