Daily Digest:
w/c 17 June 2024: The US data highlight this week is Retail Sales on Tuesday, with global Flash PMI data on Wednesday. Plus on the central bank side we get the RBA, PBoC, SNB and BoE all in play

Yields Surge Again, But Stock Indices Bounce With Strong US Jobs Report

Intermediate

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments

  • US and global bond markets went further into free fall last week, as yields surge to yet further multi-year highs, as stagflation fears and the “higher for longer” mantra persists.
  • US and global PMI data from S&P Global and the ISM in the US was broadly better than expected for both Manufacturing and Services
  • The US employment data was released on Friday and notably beat consensus data, with 336K jobs added and significant positive revisions for July and August, to 236K and 227K, respectively.
US employment report september

Global financial market developments

  • US and global equity index futures dipped last week, but then bounced on Friday after the US Employment report, hinting at a base. 
  • US and global yields surged even higher, with USTs hitting even higher multi-year highs.
US yields
  • The US Dollar Index pushed higher, to then set back from new multi-month highs.
  • Gold futures plunged still lower, with only a modest rebound Friday.
  • Oil futures plunge, reversing September bullish forces, with the risks now lower.

Key this week

A quiet start to the week, with the US Columbus Day holiday on Monday, US cash bond markets are closed, plus it is Thanksgiving Day in Canada.

Central Bank Watch: A quiet week for central banks, with the main focus on the release of the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday.

Macroeconomic Data: Key data for the week will be German and EU Industrial Production, plus UK GDP, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, plus German CPI. But critical data will be Thursday’s US CPI release

DateKey Macroeconomic Events
10/09/2023US Columbus Day holiday, US cash bond markets are closed; Thanksgiving Day Canada; German Industrial Production
10/10/2023Little of note
10/11/2023German CPI; US PPI, FOMC Minutes released 
10/12/2023UK GDP, Industrial and Manufacturing Production; US CPI; 
10/13/2023China CPI and trade data; EU Industrial Production; Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued

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