Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- Middle East war sustains market hesitancy, as Biden and Sunak visit Israel
- US yields hit multi year highs, as the yield on the 10-year Treasury just broke the 5% barrier for the first time since 2007, whilst the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has hit 8%, its highest since 2000.
- US earnings coming in solid, with the financials/ banking sector overall positive, and Netflix saw a substantial growth in subscribers, though Tesla disappointed.
- US Retail Sales data outpaced the consensus, climbing 0.7% in September, with August’s data revised up to 0.8% from reported 0.6%
- Fed Chair Powell spoke at the Economic Club of New York on Thursday saying “inflation is still too high”.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity index futures sold off, surrendering the early October rebound, damaging basing efforts, and are technically vulnerable.
- US and global yields moved significantly back higher, with USTs again hitting multi-year high yields in mid-October.
- The US Dollar Index consolidated last week having previously dipped back from multi-month highs.
- Gold futures accelerated still higher last week after the prior Friday’s +5-sigma surging rally (the largest one-day move since Covid).
- Oil futures posted a positive consolidation last week, keeping alive bullish forces.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: The Fed is in its blackout period ahead of the November 1st interest rate decision. We get the Bank of Canada (BoC) and European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions, statements and press conferences on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
Macroeconomic data Watch: Key to watch this week will be Global Flash PMI from S&P Global on Tuesday, US Durable Goods and GDP Thursday and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, US PCE (Mom, YoY) on Friday.
Earnings Watch: US earnings season enters a very busy phase, with the Big Tech behemoths the standouts releasing their numbers this week, with Microsoft plus Alphabet (Google) on Tuesday, Meta Platforms on Wednesday, and Amazon Thursday.
| Date | Key Macroeconomic Events |
| 10/23/2023 | EU Consumer Confidence |
| 10/24/2023 | Global Flash PMI from S&P Global, UK Employment report |
| 10/25/2023 | Australian CPI, German IFO survey, BoC interest rate decision, statement and press conference |
| 10/26/2023 | ECB interest rate decision, statement and press conference, US Durable Goods, US GDP, US PCE (QoQ) |
| 10/27/2023 | US PCE (Mom, YoY), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index |
| Date | Key Macroeconomic Events |
| 10/23/2023 | Nothing of note |
| 10/24/2023 | Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Texas Instruments, Verizon, General Electric |
| 10/25/2023 | Meta Platforms, IBM, Boeing |
| 10/26/2023 | Amazon, Intel, Caterpillar |
| 10/27/2023 | Exxon Mobil, Chevron |
