Daily Digest:
w/c 17 June 2024: The US data highlight this week is Retail Sales on Tuesday, with global Flash PMI data on Wednesday. Plus on the central bank side we get the RBA, PBoC, SNB and BoE all in play

Q1/Q2 Elliott Wave views for the Forex Majors – Exclusive interview with Jim Martens!

Beginner

Here is an in-depth interview with Jim Martens, Elliott Wave International’s (EWI) Senior Currency Strategist and editor of the trader-focused Currency Pro Service.

In this interview, we will discuss the Major currency pairs, including EURUSD, the US Dollar Index (DXY), GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD and USDCAD.

Here is a link to a free report on trading FX with EWI. It’s normally $79 and not available on their site: https://www.elliottwave.com/Miley-EWIFX

Analysis summary

EURUSD – The daily chart shows the basic Elliott Wave pattern, an impulsive rally (counted 1 – 5).  This count suggests a downturn is due. 

The US Dollar Index Chart (DXY) – The daily chart shows an impulsive decline from March at or near an end.

GBPUSD – The Daily chart reveals an impulsive rally from March, which signals a reversal is due. 

GBPUSD – The 4-hour chart reveals an ending diagonal pattern.  It is a terminal pattern that bolsters the idea the rally at larger degree is mature.

GBPUSD – The other Daily chart shows a divergence between price and momentum.  Even an EW purest will look for a momentum divergence during a fifth wave. 

USDCHF – Not thrilled with the daily chart structure, though the potential wave iv triangle and subsequent thrust suggests the decline is near an end.

USDCHF – The 90-minute chart shows an impulsive rally at a lower degree of trend, that hints a turn is underway.

USDJPY – The daily chart reveals a corrective decline from March 2020 that contrasts with the impulsive Euro advance over the same time.  Different counts but the same message. 

USDJPY – The weekly chart shows the EW pattern at a larger degree of trend (EW is fractal in nature). A triangle suggested the decline from March would end above 101.25.

USDJPY – The 6-hour chart reveals an impulsive rally from 102.59, and a corrective setback.  Together these bolster the idea USDJPY has bottomed. 

AUDUSD – The daily chart shows a possible impulse rally at an end.  We sometimes have an alternative count.  In this case, the alternate counts the rise as a 3-wave movement.  The outlook is the same.

USDCAD – The daily chart shows an impulsive decline nearing an end.

USDCAD – The weekly chart shows back-to-back 3-wave movements with a double top.  It limits the EW patterns available to us and is helpful to our analysis.

Editor

Jim Martens is Elliott Wave International's Senior Currency Strategist and editor of the trader-focused Currency Pro Service. He got his start working with metals traders on the Commodity Exchange Cen... Continued

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