Shares surge, looking for more – S&P 500 and FTSE 100 forecast

Intermediate
  • Only last week we headlined our report “Shares plunge, more to come”. What a difference a week can make in trading!
  • Despite stock markets plunging lower at the end of October, a strong recovery rally at the start of this week was extended on Wednesday as the partial results came in from the US presidential election.
  • This “risk on” theme was driven on Wednesday by:
    • An expectation now of a Biden victory
    • A likely split Congress, with the Republicans probably holding the Senate.
    • This means potential tax increases and regulatory changes from the Democrats are going to be less easy to implement than if there was a Blue Sweep.
  • However, we must remember that we still have the spectre of:
    • European COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations surging and rising numbers of deaths
    • Aggressive new lockdowns across Europe
    • Significantly rising COVID-19 cases in the USA.
  • In this report we will spotlight the US and UK benchmark stock averages, with our S&P 500 and FTSE 100 forecasts.

S&P 500 future day trade outlook: Upside threats 

A Monday-Wednesday rally above resistances as high as 3446.25 and 3469.75 to 3480.0, rejecting bear forces from the latter October sell-off to 3226.0 and the breakdown through key 3291.25 (to shift the intermediate-term outlook to a range we see as 3198.0 to 3541.0), to keep the bias higher Thursday.

Day trade setup

  • We see an upside bias for 3480.0 and 3508.5; a break here aims for 3521/24, maybe key 3541.0.
  • But below 3430/28 opens risk down to 3395.75 and possibly 3357.0, even 3319.0.

S&P 500 future intermediate-term outlook

The latter October sell-off through 3291.25 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a broader range seen as 3198.0 to 3541.0

  • Upside risks: Above 3541.0 sets an intermediate-term bull trend to target 3587.0, the 3626/30 extension target area and 3709.75.
  • Downside risks: Below 3198.0 sets an intermediate-term bear trend to target 3105.25, 30000.0/2983.25 and 2923.75.

8 Hour S&P 500 Chart

sp 500 chart

FTSE 100 day trade outlook: Upside risks 

A Monday-Tuesday rally and erratic Wednesday surge for a bullish outside daily pattern, above resistances as high as the notable 5823.5 and 5842/61 barriers to fully reject bear forces from the latter October bearish extension to a new multi-month cycle low after the plunge through key May and April supports (at 5651/45, 5614/12 and 5525.5 ), to keep the threat higher Thursday.

Day trade setup

·      We see an upside bias through 5879 for 5890.5; a break here quickly aims for 5936 and 5983, maybe key 6012.5.

·      But below 5839.5 opens risk down to 5780.5 and 5753.5, then possibly towards 5673.5.

FTSE 100 intermediate-term outlook

The early September push below key 5815.5 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bear trend.

  • Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 5325/16.5 and maybe towards 5000.
  • What changes this? Above 6012.5 shifts the intermediate-term bear trend straight to an intermediate-term bull trend.

Daily FTSE 100 Chart

ftse 100 chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

Comment on this video

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


Latest Related News

Stocks stay very bullish into Thanksgiving – S&P 500 and FTSE 100 forecast

A firm tone seen for the main global stock indices this week, throughout November and also over the past 24 hours.The solid “risk on” theme is still been driven by:The ongoing Biden bounce, reinforced by the start of the transition of powerThe appointment of Janet Yellen as US Treasury SecretaryThe announcement of THREE very positive COVID-19 vaccine trial resultsLockdowns in Europe starting to work, with… Continued

Stocks dip but bull themes intact (S&P 500 and FTSE 100 forecast)

A dip across major global equity averages over the past 24 hours, but the underlying theme stays bullish from the very strong November rallies.The ongoing “risk on” theme has been driven by:The announcement from Moderna and Pfizer of very positive COVID-19 vaccine trial resultsLockdown measures taking hold in Europe, with falling/ plateauing in the numbers of new COVID-19 casesThe ongoing Biden bounceBut the market is… Continued

Shares surge again as COVID vaccine cheer builds on Biden bounce

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The announcement last Monday from Pfizer that their COVID-19 vaccine had produced extremely positive trial results and is at a late stage of development saw the “risk on” theme reinforced. Value and “old economy” stocks surged higher on anticipation of a broad economic recovery, whilst “new era” tech stocks underperformed.This was on the back of the announcement last weekend that Joe Biden… Continued

Stocks strong, bull threats – S&P 500 and FTSE 100 forecast

Last week we headlined our report “Shares surge, looking for more” and the markets have certainly delivered more, lots more!The ongoing “risk on” theme has been driven by:The announcement from Pfizer of a very impressive 90% success rate for their CIOVID-19 vaccineConfirmation of a Joe Biden victoryA probable split Congress, with the Republicans likely holding the SenatePlateauing numbers of cases COVID-19 cases in Europe, as… Continued

Correction curtailed by Election – Market Turning Points

Cycles:  Looking ahead!  90-yr cycle – last low: 1932. Next low: 2022 7-yr cycle – last low: 2016.  Next low: 2023 New minor low about mid-November. Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QCharts SPX-IWM weekly charts The forte of IWM as a leading indicator is to show relative weakness to SPX at the top of an intermediate or long term market move. Comparing the two indexes in… Continued

Forex Brokers in your location


SIGN UP

72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.


SIGN UP

74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.


SIGN UP

75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.


SIGN UP

76.4% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.