Daily Digest:
1 December: Global bonds and USTs backed up to higher yields Thursday, as US stock index futures were mixed, despite US PCE data showing inflationary pressures cooling. Friday's focus is on US and global PMI data, plus Powell speaks as the Fed go into its blackout period

Big Tech Leads Stocks Higher, Despite First Republic Bank Induced Wobble


Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments

  • The season’s busiest week of quarterly earnings reports from the US, saw positives from Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Meta lift the major US indices.
  • After four weeks without any notable contagion, fears resurfaced last week as First Republic Bank related news weighed on the banking industry and reintroduced concerns about the health of regional banks.
  • The Japanese Yen (JPY) was sent spiralling lower on Friday as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) seemed to outdo itself on the dovish scale.

Global financial market developments

  • The major US stock averages dipped and rebounded last week, reinforcing the underlying positive theme from the March rally.
  • European indices probed higher, building on the March recovery.
  • US and European Bonds pushed to lower yield territory.
  • The US Dollar Index was sideways again but remains vulnerable after hitting a multi-month low in mid-April.
  • Gold marked time after the April sell off from a new 2023 and multi-month high in mid-month, still rejecting an immediate challenge to record levels.
  • Oil prices sold off further from a multi-month high in mid-April, closing the bull gap from the early April surge (after the OPEC+ supply cuts were announced).

Key this week

  • Holidays: A shortened week in China, the UK and Europe with markets closed Monday 1st for the May Day holidays.
  • Central Bank Watch: Tuesday we get the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), who are expected to keep rates on hold at 3.60%, Wednesday brings the US Federal Reserve, expected to hike by 25bps to a Fed Funds range of 5.00%5.25% and Thursday we get the European Central Bank (ECB), who are expected to hike the deposit rate by 25bps to 3.25%.
  • Macroeconomic data: US data focus is on the ISM Manufacturing Monday and Services on Wednesday with global S&P Global PMI data Monday-Friday.
  • Earnings Season: US earnings season continues to unfold with Apple the standouts on Thursday.
DateKey Macroeconomic Events
01/05/2023China, UK and Europe markets closed for the May Day holidays; ISM Manufacturing
02/05/2023RBA monetary policy, Eurozone final Manufacturing PMI, UK final Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone HICP inflation, US JOLTS, US Factory Orders
03/05/2023ADP Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, FOMC monetary policy
04/05/2023China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone final Composite PMI, UK final Composite PMI, ECB monetary policy
05/05/2023China Caixin Composite PMI, US Non-farm Payrolls

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued

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