Equities plunge after US Jobs report, but rebound sets risk higher

  • A fairly aggressive selloff for US (and also global) equity averages on Friday after a very weak US Employment report, reinforcing a very negative week for US stock markets and also global indices.
  • However, a firm intraday rebound into the close on Friday has avoided a more bearish signal and from a technical analysis perspective, sets risks back to the topside into the start of this week.
  • Here we focus in on the S&P 500, the US benchmark average.

S&P 500 E-Mini risks flip back to the upside

A notable selloff on Friday through key supports at 2729/26 (sustaining the Thursday move lower), but then a very robust intraday rebound rally from the trend line from mid-January and establishing NEW KEY support at 2722.0, producing a bullish Hammer candlestick pattern on the daily chart, to flip risks back higher for Monday.

The late January push above 2690.5 shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bullish BUT risk remains to test NEW KEY 2722.5 support for an intermediate-term shift to neutral and maybe to bearish below 2680.75.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 2761.25; break here aims for 2776.25 and possibly towards 2783/84.
  • But below 2735/34 opens risk down to new key support at 2722.5, maybe 2702.75

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 2819.0/31.25.

  • Higher targets would be 2953.25 and 2600.0
  • What Changes This? Below 5 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 2680.75 is needed for a bear theme.


4 Hour Chart


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US Dollar Index holds support and rebounds EURUSD seeds multiple negative signals, downside risks GBPUSD sends buy signal GBPCAD sets up more bullish AUDUSD negative and USDCAD buy signal USDTRY and USDBRL surge

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