- The major European equity markets went into the Easter holiday season positing new cycle and 2019 highs.
- This price action reinforces both short- and intermediate-term bull trends, as markets enter a very busy week for earning reports.
- With the second quarter earnings season thus far proving broadly positive for global companies and therefore the wider markets, we see the skewed risk for further upside progress into late April and likely on into May.
- Below, we focus on the outlooks for major European benchmarks, the pan-European EURO STOXX 50, the UK flagship index the FTSE 100 and the German yardstick, the DAX.
EURO STOXX 50 bull trend extends further
Once more, a strong push higher Thursday after an initial small dip to another new cycle and 2019 high at 3439 through various resistances as high as 3439, to build on the earlier April firm advance through the 3377 peak, to sustain the intermediate-term bull trend and to keep risks higher for Tuesday.
We see an intermediate-term bull theme whilst above the bull gap at 3288-83.
- We see an upside bias for 3439; break here aims for 3449/50, maybe towards 3464.
- But below 3424 aims for 3392 and maybe opens risk down towards 3371.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 3500.
- What Changes This? Below the bull gap at 3288-83 shifts the intermediate-term outlook to neutral and below 3201 to a bear trend.
4 Hour Euro Stoxx 50 Chart
FTSE 100 bull theme stays intact
A Thursday prod higher to a new cycle and 2019 high, but with an indecisive outside pattern, but higher again this morning to reinforce the intermediate-term bull trend, to keep the bias higher Tuesday.
The early February push above 6998.5 sets an intermediate-term bull trend.
- We see an upside bias for 7437.5; break here aims for a key peak at 7453, maybe towards 7477.
- But below 7381/80 opens risk down to 7357.5, maybe towards 7325.5.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 7453 and 7570.
- What Changes This? Below 7068 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 6943 is needed for a bear theme.
Daily FTSE 100 Chart
DAX posts yet another bull extension
Again, a solid rally Thursday to yet another new cycle and 2019 peak above 12250 resistance, reinforcing the earlier April push through the psychological/ option target at 12000 and then 12053, to keep risks to the upside for Tuesday.
The early April push through a key resistance at 11640 shifted the intermediate-term outlook back to bullish.
- We see an upside bias for 12292/297; break here quickly aims for 12333, then 12377.
- But below 12210 targets 12124 and then maybe 12045.5.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 12455 and 12873.
- What Changes This? Below 11285 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bear theme.
4 Hour DAX Chart