Daily Digest:
w/c 24th June - a relatively light data week, with spotlight on US GDP and Durable Goods Wednesday, then the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the MoM and YoY PCE data on Friday

February 13th 2024 US CPI Release Preview

Intermediate

US CPI Expectations

As anticipation builds for the upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on February 13th, market participants are bracing for critical insights into the state of inflation. This data arrives amidst a backdrop of heightened attention following a robust January jobs report and the Federal Reserve‘s cautious stance on inflation.

Federal Reserve

Investors are closely eyeing the report, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. EST on Tuesday, to gauge progress in the Fed’s ongoing battle against inflation. Dubbed the “last mile” in the inflation fight, this CPI data will play a pivotal role in shaping market expectations.

Expectations for the January CPI (MoM) stand at 0.2%, mirroring the previous month’s figure. Meanwhile, the consensus for the CPI (YoY) in January is 2.9%, a notable decrease from the previous month’s 3.4%. In the realm of core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, the anticipated CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) for January is 0.3%, consistent with the prior month. Year-on-year, the expected CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) for January is 3.7%, down from the previous month’s 3.9%.

cpi

These figures underscore the market’s anticipation and provide a snapshot of investor sentiment. While expectations for a rate cut in March have diminished, with futures prices indicating a more than 50% chance of a cut in May, Tuesday’s CPI data will be instrumental in shaping future monetary policy decisions and market dynamics. As investors await the release, all eyes are on the numbers, poised to decipher the implications for the economy and financial markets alike.

The Importance of the February 13th Release

In recent years, inflation has been a roller-coaster ride, with prices skyrocketing and every dollar feeling like it’s shrinking. However, the economy is now cooling down from its inflationary highs, making the upcoming CPI report particularly crucial. As inflation shows signs of simmering down, the CPI becomes a guide for what may come next.

Whether you’re an investor, a budget-conscious shopper, or simply curious about the economic landscape, the CPI will reveal insights into the economic script for the next act. So, as we approach the February 13h release, stay tuned, as the CPI holds the key to understanding the economic landscape ahead.

Understanding the US CPI

As we await the upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on February 13th, it’s essential to grasp the significance of this economic indicator. The CPI tracks the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for various goods and services, offering a comprehensive snapshot of the cost of living. From your morning coffee to the rent for your urban sanctuary, the CPI captures the subtle shifts in prices that impact your daily expenses.

The CPI’s Impact on Your Finances

The CPI isn’t just a bunch of statistics; it’s your financial crystal ball. When it rises, it signals increasing costs, prompting adjustments to your budget and influencing decisions on everything from weekend brunches to major purchases. Rising CPI can lead to pricier flights, affect interest rates, and ultimately impact your day-to-day life and long-term plans.

Editor

Luke is currently a student in his final year studying A levels in Economics, Maths and Physics at The Bishop’s Stortford High School. He has a strong interest in economics and financial markets,... Continued

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