Global equity index vulnerabilities

  • Global financial markets continue to react negatively to global trade war concerns.
  • Asian, European and US equity averages have all rolled back lower this week into late May, damaging rebound effort made from mid-May.
  • This sets the immediate risks lower and starts to resume the negative tone set during the significant selloff in the first half of May.
  • The threat into month-end is now for more bearish intermediate-term signals back through the current May lows.
  • Today we focus on the Japanese benchmark average, the Nikkei 225.

Nikkei bear threats increasing

A setback from midweek and again Friday, damaging the rebound theme from last week and threatening a more negative development into late May, leaving risks lower for next week.

On an intermediate-term basis, the selloff in the first half of May neutralised the intermediate-term bull trend for 2019 with the surrender of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 21058.

This leaves an intermediate-term range as 22362 to 20751, BUT with risks skewed for an intermediate-term bearish shift below 20751.

For Today:    

  • We see a downside bias for 20922; break here aims for 20850, maybe key 20751.
  • But above 21175 opens risk up to 21267, maybe towards 21430.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 22362 to 20751.

  • Upside Risks: Above 22362 sets a bull trend to aim for 22699 and 24448.
  • Downside Risks: Below 20751sees a bear trend to target 20315, 20000 and 18948.

Daily Nikkei 225 Chart

Nikkei 225

Comments on this analysis

Latest News

gbpusd chart
Pound recovery aims GBPUSD for key resistance at 1.2814

A rebound for the GBPUSD Forex rate this week, but the midweek surge has primarily been driven by broad US Dollar weakness. US$ losses have been a reaction to the Fed Meeting on Wednesday (19th June 2019), where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opened the door to a rate cut, expected in July, with … Continued

Nasdaq Points Up; USDTRY Getting Ready For More Weakness

NASDAQ should remain in uptrend, because we don’t see a completed five-wave cycle yet, so current three-wave decline can be only part of a corrective wave iv that can find support ideally around previous wave iii) swing high and 7600 – 7595 levels and from where may see a continuation higher for wave v of … Continued

AUDUSD and NZDUSD rebounds question bear trends

Positive comments from US President Trump regarding a likely meeting with the Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 Meeting in Osaka, Japan. This sparked hopes of a resumption of trade negotiations, increasing investor risk appetite and sent riskier assets higher, with global stock indices posting firm gains on Tuesday. Furthermore, the “risk currencies”, the … Continued

ftse 100
UK benchmark index, the FTSE 100, aiming higher

Global equity averages have retained their short-term positive outlooks from the strong rallies at the start of June, consolidating these recovery efforts over the past week. The UK benchmark stock average, the FTSE 100 is in similarly positive mode, but also bolstered by Sterling weakness against the US Dollar and Euro (GBOUSD low and EURGBP … Continued

Forex Brokers in your location