Global equity indices firm, but cautious

Intermediate
  • The major global equity averages have taken a breath to start this week, after an extremely strong first quarter of gains and a firm start to April last week.
  • European and UK equity indices have seen slight dips lower since last Friday, partially due to rebounds in the Euro and Pound, which have weighed on the stock averages.
  • The US equity averages have also seen upside caution this week, with Boeing (NYSE: BA) still under downward pressure from downgrades.
  • Nevertheless, the S&P 500 still managed to nudge to a new cycle high on Monday, whilst the pan-European benchmark, the EUROSTOXX 50, has managed to hold above modest support.

EURO STOXX 50 bull tone intact, despite a dip

A minor setback Monday but holding above initial 3356 support, to sustain upside forces from Friday’s prod to another new cycle and 2019 high at 3377, plus from the early April bull gap at 3288-83, and from the entire recovery effort from latter March, to keep risks higher for Tuesday.

We see an intermediate-term bull theme whilst above the bull gap at 3288-83.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 3377; break here aims for 3386, maybe towards 3399/3400.
  • But below 3356 aims for 3341 and maybe opens risk down towards 3326.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 3412 and 3500.

  • What Changes This? Below the bull gap at 3288-83 shifts the intermediate-term outlook to neutral and below 3201 to a bear trend.

4 Hour Chart

EUROSTOXX Chart

S&P 500 E-Mini upside risks

A Monday probe to the upside to another new cycle high then stopping exactly at the psychological/ option barrier at 2900.0 in overnight trading this morning, with a minor dip holding above initial, minor support at 2880.5, thereby sustaining positive pressures from the start of April bull gap (2844.5-40.75) that produced a push above the March cycle peak (at 2866.0), to keep risks higher for Tuesday.

The late January push above 2690.5 shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bullish.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for the new cycle high at 2900.0; break here aims for 2911.75, maybe towards 2924/25.
  • But below 2880.5 aims for 2862.25, maybe 2853.75.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 2955.5/61.25 and 3000.0

  • What Changes This? Below 2726.5 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 2686.0 is needed for a bear theme.

4 Hour Chart

SP500 Chart

Comments on this analysis


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