Hawkish Fed Tone, “Risk Off” Theme Intact

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments

• Further hawkish messages from Federal Reserve officials last week have reinforced the tone evident since the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell’s 26^th August Jackson Hole speech.
• Friday’s US Employment report saw 315K jobs added, down from the revised 526K number for July, but still a solid report.

Global financial market developments

• The major US stock averages were notably lower last week.
• European and Asian equity indices were also decidedly negative.
• US 10yr yields moved even higher given the hawkish Fed tone and solid US Employment report.
• The US Dollar Index has extended strong 2022 gains, buoyed by the higher Treasury yields.
• EURUSD remains negative, consolidating latte August losses and now comfortable below parity.
• Gold declined (with the US Dollar gains) and remains vulnerable near to multi-month lows.
• Oil pushed lower again towards multi-month lows, with bigger risks still skewed lower.
• Copper saw notable losses last week with the short- and intermediate-term bias to the downside.

Key this week

• Geopolitical focus:
  • Still monitoring the war in Ukraine.
  • Monday 5^th September is the US Labor Day holiday, cash markets are closed.

Central Bank Watch: A busy week for Central Banks, Tuesday sees the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision and statement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks on Wednesday along with the Bank of Canada (BOC) interest rate decision and statement, then we get the same from the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday.

• Macroeconomic data: Standout data for the week are the global S&P Global Services and Composite PMI on Monday and ISM Services PMI on Tuesday.

Steve Miley (The Market Chartist)

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued