Daily Digest:
w/c 4 March 2024: US stock averages higher again to end the week, prodding at record levels; upcoming week's focus on the Fed's Powell testimony before Congress and the US Employment report

Hawkish Fed Tone, “Risk Off” Theme Intact

Intermediate

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments

  • Further hawkish messages from Federal Reserve officials last week have reinforced the tone evident since the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell’s 26th August Jackson Hole speech.
  • Friday’s US Employment report saw 315K jobs added, down from the revised 526K number for July, but still a solid report.
NFP

Global financial market developments

  • The major US stock averages were notably lower last week.
  • European and Asian equity indices were also decidedly negative.
  • US 10yr yields moved even higher given the hawkish Fed tone and solid US Employment report.
  • The US Dollar Index has extended strong 2022 gains, buoyed by the higher Treasury yields.
  • EURUSD remains negative, consolidating latte August losses and now comfortable below parity.
  • Gold declined (with the US Dollar gains) and remains vulnerable near to multi-month lows.
  • Oil pushed lower again towards multi-month lows, with bigger risks still skewed lower.
  • Copper saw notable losses last week with the short- and intermediate-term bias to the downside.

Key this week

  • Geopolitical focus:
    • Still monitoring the war in Ukraine.
    • Monday 5th September is the US Labor Day holiday, cash markets are closed.

Central Bank Watch: A busy week for Central Banks, Tuesday sees the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision and statement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks on Wednesday along with the Bank of Canada (BOC) interest rate decision and statement, then we get the same from the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday.

ECB
  • Macroeconomic data: Standout data for the week are the global S&P Global Services and Composite PMI on Monday and ISM Services PMI on Tuesday.
ISM
DateKey Macroeconomic Events
05/09/22US Labor Day holiday, cash markets closed; global S&P Global Services and Composite PMI; EU Retail Sales
06/09/22RBA interest rate decision and statement; US S&P Global Services and Composite PMI and ISM Services PMI
07/09/22EU GDP; Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks; BOC interest rate decision, statement and press conference
08/09/22Japan GDP; ECB interest rate decision and statement
09/09/22China CPI; Canada Employment report  

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued

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