Daily Digest:
1 December: Global bonds and USTs backed up to higher yields Thursday, as US stock index futures were mixed, despite US PCE data showing inflationary pressures cooling. Friday's focus is on US and global PMI data, plus Powell speaks as the Fed go into its blackout period

Nasdaq Leads Higher As Debt Celling Worries Cap Inflation Cheer


Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments

  • US debt ceiling concerns are rising, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen commented last week that a US default would be an “economic and financial catastrophe”.
  • US CPI headline inflation fell more than expected to 4.9% on Wednesday, whilst core inflation dipped slightly but was in line with expectations at 5.5%.
US inflation
  • Inflation continues to plunge in China, the PPI (factory-gate inflation) accelerated down to -3.6%, with headline CPI at +0.1%, the lowest since early 2021.
  • The Bank of England (BoE) joined the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) hiking by 0.25% on Thursday as widely expected.
  • UK interest rate swaps markets are pricing possibly two more 25bps hikes to bring the rate 5.00%, then pausing later in the summer.

Global financial market developments

  • The major US stock averages were mixed, with a plunge through last week, then a firm rebound Friday, retaining intermediate-term the DJIA lower, the S&P little changed on the week, whilst the Nasdaq hit a multi-month high.
  • European indices consolidated, near to recently set multi-month highs.
  • US and European Bond yields were in consolidation mode but retain a lower yield bias.
  • The US Dollar Index rebounded from near a multi-month low, switching to a more positive tone.
  • Gold consolidated below a recently set multi-month high.
  • The early may Oil rebound from a multi-week low faltered back lower last week.

Key this week

  • Central Bank Watch: Fed speakers in focus, with no significant central back activity in the coming week.
  • Macroeconomic data: A quiet data week, UK Unemployment, German ZEW and US Retail Sales are probably the standouts, all released on Tuesday.
DateKey Macroeconomic Events
15/05/2023Eurozone Industrial Production
16/05/2023Chinese Industrial Production & Retail Sales; UK Unemployment; Eurozone Trade Balance; Eurozone GDP (2nd); German ZEW Economic Sentiment; Canadian Inflation; US Retail Sales & Industrial Production
17/05/2023Japanese GDP (Q1 prelim) & Industrial Production; Eurozone HICP Inflation (final); US Building Permits & Housing Starts
18/05/2023Australian Unemployment, US Weekly Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing; US Existing Home Sales
19/05/2023Japanese inflation

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued

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