- In last week’s spotlight on the German benchmark share index, the DAX we highlighted a more resilient tone for global equity indices (after the aggressive selloffs at the start of August).
- However, an inability to build on basing efforts, a lack of any positive news on the trade war, the protests in Hong Kong and the plunge in the Argentine Peso have seen the global “risk off” theme resurfacing in the very short-term.
- This leaves the short- intermediate-term outlook negative and here we focus on the broad US yardstick average, the S&P 500.
S&P 500 downside threats
A plunge lower Monday through multiple supports at 2899.0, 2893.75 and 2883.25 to reject upside forces from last Thursday’s surge higher, to shift the bias back lower for Tuesday.
We see an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT with risks now for a shift back to neutral above 2961.0.
- We see a downside bias for 2870.5; break here aims for 2858/57, then for 2844.5.
- But above 2900.75 opens risk up to 2914/15, maybe 2931.0.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 2732.25/31.75.
- Lower targets would be 2637.0 and 2579.75.
- What Changes This? Above 2961.0 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; above 3014.25 is needed for an intermediate-term bull theme.
4 Hour S&P 500 E-Mini Future Chart