- A slight dip lower for global stock averages over the past 24-48 hours, as the “risk on” theme has wobbled.
- This has been due to fading hopes of a US economic relief package ahead of the US election.
- Here we look at the technical analysis for the US and UK benchmark averages, the S&P 500 and FTSE 100
S&P 500 future day trade outlook: Still bullish, despite setback
A negative consolidation Wednesday and a dip lower overnight down through supports at 3491.5/91.25 and 3477.5/73.0, but whilst above the 3447/45 foundations we see a positive tone from Monday’s strong rally to 3541.0 (through 3480.0, 3507/0 and 3531.0 resistances), plus from the robust, earlier October push through our key peaks at 3419.5/21.75/24.25 (for an intermediate-term bull shift), to keep the risk to the upside Thursday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for 3493.75 and 3521/24; a break here aims at 3541.0 and 3555/56
- But below 3447/45 opens risk down to 3430.0 and possibly 3403.5.
S&P 500 future intermediate-term outlook
The early October push above 3421.75/24.25 saw an intermediate-term shift to bullish.
- Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to target 3587.0, the 3626/30 extension target area and 3709.75.
- What changes this? Below 3291.25 shifts the intermediate-term outlook to neutral and through 3198.0 to bearish.
FTSE 100 day trade outlook: Deeper setback, but still looking for a bounce
A further Wednesday setback below support at 5922 and again overnight just below our 5872 support to 5866 but now whilst above here (5866) we still hang onto upside pressures from the earlier October advance through 5985 and 6000/05 resistances to 6012.5, plus from whole erratic rally from the latter September bear move low at 5739.5, to keep the risk to the upside Thursday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for 5940/50; a break here aims for 6012.5 and maybe towards 6040.
- But below 5866 aims for 5830/25 and maybe targets 5766.5/65.
FTSE 100 intermediate-term outlook
The early September push below key 5815.5 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bear trend.
- Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 5651/45, 5325/16.5 and maybe towards 5000.
- What changes this? Above 6267.5 shifts the intermediate-term bear trend to neutral; through 6512.5 to an intermediate-term bull trend.