- An extremely aggressive selloff by global stock averages to start the week, reacting to the lockdown in Italy, the state of emergency on New York and the oil price war.
- This saw the major global share indices gap lower on Sunday night/ Monday morning, with circuit breakers kicking in on the S&P 00 future and the New York stock Exchange.
- Markets have wiped out longer term supports going back to early 2019/ late 2018, which leave a more vulnerable theme deeper into March.
- A rebound overnight on stimulus hopes from the US.
- Here we focus on future on the US benchmark equity index, the S&P 500.
S&P 500 E-mini future day trade outlook: Downside risks intensifying, despite bounce
A Monday plunge through numerous supports including a key 2728.75 level, down to 2695.25, to reinforce the short- and intermediate-term bear trends and despite a rebound overnight, whilst below 2916.0 to keep risks lower into Tuesday.
· We see a downside bias for 2797.75 and 2767.0; a break below aims for 2728.0 and 2695.25, maybe even 2612.5.
· But above 2916.0 targets 2963/65, which we would look to try to cap; above opens risk up towards 2984.25 and even 3000.0 and 3037.0.
S&P 500 E-mini future intermediate-term outlook
The latter February plunge below 3303.5 signalled an intermediate-term bearish shift.
· Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 2560.5, 2500, maybe 2438.5.
· What Changes This? Above 3137.0 sees an intermediate-term neutral range and above 3260.0 a bull trend.
Daily S&P 500 E-mini future Chart