US averages lead global stock indices back higher

Intermediate
  • The major US equity averages have seen an aggressive surge back higher this week, with US macroeconomic data continuing to stay strong, plus global relief as we move away from a No Deal Brexit.
  • Stock markets have shrugged off the earlier March selloffs last week, that wiped out notable supports and likely reflected short- and intermediate-term bullish fatigue from the very strong 2019 rallies.
  • The robust rallies this week have seen both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 hit new 2019 highs, rejecting the recent selloffs as corrections.
  • Here we focus on the US broad benchmark average, the S&P 500 and the upside risks to prices.

S&P 500 E-Mini bullish extension threat with new 2019 high

A surge Wednesday to wipe out resistance and hot a new 2019 high above 2819.75, to build on Monday’s strong advance (above multiple resistances), plus Friday’s bullish daily Hammer candlestick pattern from the trend line from mid-January and new key support at 2722.0, to keep risks higher for Thursday.

The late January push above 2690.5 shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bullish.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 2821.25; break here aims for key Q4 2018 targets at 2824.5 and 2831.25, then even maybe closer to 28409.5 and even 2850.0.
  • But below 2798.25 opens risk down to 2780.5, which we would look to try to hold.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 2819.0/31.25.

  • Higher targets would be 2953.25 and 2600.0
  • What Changes This? Below 2722.5 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 2680.75 is needed for a bear theme.

4 Hour Chart

SP500 Chart

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