Daily Digest:
w/c 17 June 2024: The US data highlight this week is Retail Sales on Tuesday, with global Flash PMI data on Wednesday. Plus on the central bank side we get the RBA, PBoC, SNB and BoE all in play

US Retail Sales and US Industrial Production Releases – 17th January 2024 Preview


What are US Retail Sales 

US Retail Sales data releases are economic indicators that measure the total receipts of retail stores, providing a comprehensive snapshot of consumer spending on goods. These releases encompass a wide range of retail categories, including clothing, electronics, groceries, and other consumer products. The data is collected and reported by the U.S. Census Bureau on a monthly basis, offering a timely and detailed overview of consumer activity. 

Why are US Retail Sales Releases Important? 

The importance of US Retail Sales lies in their role as a key economic indicator. Consumer spending is a significant driver of economic activity, accounting for a substantial portion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). As such, changes in retail sales figures can reflect shifts in consumer sentiment, disposable income, and broader economic conditions. Strong retail sales often signal a robust economy, suggesting increased consumer confidence and economic growth. On the other hand, declines in retail sales may indicate economic challenges, potentially impacting overall economic health. Financial markets closely monitor these releases as they can influence investor sentiment and provide insights into the broader economic outlook. Analysts use Retail Sales data to assess the strength of consumer spending trends, helping to shape expectations for future economic performance. Retail sales figures are especially crucial in December for assessing consumer activity. They offer insights into the resilience of the US consumer during this pivotal month for retailers. An easy way to keep up to date with important data releases is by checking economic calendars.

What is Expected from the January 17th US Retail Sales Data Release?

The upcoming January 17th US Retail Sales data release by the US Census Bureau is garnering attention from economists and researchers. Set to be unveiled at 13:30 GMT on Wednesday, January 17th, the forecasts indicate expectations of an accelerated growth in Retail Sales, projecting a 0.4% increase compared to the previous month’s 0.3%. Consumer spending, excluding automobiles, is anticipated to hold steady at a 0.2% month-on-month rate. Additionally, the control group, a significant metric for GDP calculations, is predicted to register a 0.2% month-on-month figure, reflecting a moderation from the 0.4% reported in November. As market participants await this crucial economic data, these forecasts provide insights into expectations for key aspects of consumer spending and economic activity.

Retail Sales
US Retail sales

What are US Industrial Production Releases?

Much like Retail Sales, US Industrial Production data releases are economic indicators, but measure the output of the manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors in the United States. Published by the Federal Reserve, these releases provide a comprehensive overview of the nation’s industrial activity. The data encompasses various industries, including manufacturing of goods, mining of natural resources, and utilities like electricity and gas production. Industrial production is reported as an index, allowing analysts and policymakers to assess changes in output over time. The components of the index are weighted based on their relative contribution to the overall industrial sector.

Why are US Industrial Production Releases Important?

US Industrial Production releases hold significance as a key economic indicator, offering insights into the health and performance of the industrial sector. Industrial production is a crucial component of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and reflects the overall capacity and output of the economy. By monitoring these releases, analysts and policymakers gain valuable information about trends in manufacturing and production activities. Changes in industrial production can signal shifts in economic conditions, affecting employment, investment, and overall economic growth. Strong industrial production figures may indicate a vibrant and expanding economy, while declines could suggest economic challenges or contraction. Financial markets closely follow these releases, as they can influence investor sentiment as they attempt to trade the news and events and contribute to assessments of the broader economic landscape.

What is Expected from the January 17th US Industrial Production Data Release?

Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the U.S. Industrial Production data scheduled for January 17th at 14:15 GMT. The forecasts for December indicate that Industrial Production Month-on-Month (MoM) is expected to be stagnant at 0.0%, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. Examining the year-on-year figures, the previous month reported a decline of -0.39%. Additionally, the forecast for Manufacturing Production MoM in December stands at 0.0%, compared to the previous month’s growth of 0.3%. This data is crucial for gauging the health and performance of the U.S. industrial sector, offering insights into the broader economic landscape. Any deviations from these expectations could potentially influence market sentiment and impact various asset classes. Investors will be closely monitoring the release for signals about the trajectory of the U.S. industrial sector and its implications for the overall economy.

US Industrial Production
US Industrial Production


Luke is currently a student in his final year studying A levels in Economics, Maths and Physics at The Bishop’s Stortford High School. He has a strong interest in economics and financial markets,... Continued

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