A Cross Asset Class Shift To “Risk On”

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments

• Easing inflation fears seemed to be at work last week, possibly assisted by a midweek decline in oil prices to multi-month lows.
• Plus, the Fed’s “Beige Book” indicated that price increases were moderating in 9 of its 12 districts.
• Fed speakers Brainard and Mester also delivered comments that seemed to be more “dovish” than markets had expected.
• Various European countries and the UK announced plans to deal with the energy crisis and boost their economies, whilst EU energy ministers are meeting to debate electricity market intervention.

• As markets had anticipated, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its key interest rates by a record 0.75%.

Global financial market developments

• The major US stock averages posted notable rebounds last week.

• European and Asian equity indices were also positive.
• US 10yr yields moved notable lower.
• EURUSD secured a solid rebound and small base.

• GBPUSD started to recover having hit a multi-decade low, the lowest level since 1985!
• USDJPY hit a 24 year high.
• Gold posted a small bounce from near to multi-month lows.
• Oil pushed lower again to a new multi-month low, with bigger risks still skewed lower.
• Copper bounced to ease bear pressures from notable losses the prior week.

Key this week

• Central Bank Watch: No Central Bank activity of real note.
• Macroeconomic data: A very busy week for data with the standouts for the week the German, US, and UK CPI reports with the US the big focus for the week on Tuesday. Also, a big week overall for the UK alongside CPI with GDP, Manufacturing & Industrial Production, the Employment report and Retail Sales all released. We also get Retail Sales from the US and China, as well as the German ZEW Survey, plus the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is posted on Friday.

Steve Miley (The Market Chartist)

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued