Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- The standout event in a light data week was the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with the ex-Food & Energy number coming in at 0.3%, below consensus estimates.
- On the fiscal side, the US Senate passed the infrastructure spending bill, approximately USD 1 trillion with about USD 560 billion of new spending.
- The continuing spread globally of the COVID-19 Delta variant keeps markets vulnerable to intermittent, “risk off” moves.
Global financial market developments
- Global stock averages pushed higher last week, with European averages taking the lead.
- Global bond markets pushed to higher yields before a lower yield correction Friday.
- Following US yields, the US Dollar rallied before setting back on Friday.
- EURUSD sold off and the bounced Friday, leaving the underlying bias still negative.
- GBPUSD retreated, further negating the ate July rebound.
- Gold saw a “flash crash” Monday after prior weakness in early August, and despite a re rebound remains vulnerable.
- The Oil price has been erratic since the early July high was posted and is in a consolidation range.
- Copper is also in a consolidation range.
Key this week
- Watching for further global lockdown easings or a renewal of lockdowns.
- Monitoring the global spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant.
- Central Bank Watch: We get the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes on Tuesday and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision and statement is on Wednesday.
- Macroeconomic data: Data standouts this week are the global inflation reports through the week from the UK, EU, Canada and Japan, plus Retail Sales reports from China, the UK and US.
|Date||Key Macroeconomic Events|
|16/08/21||Japan GDP; China Industrial Production and Retail Sales|
|17/08/21||RBA meeting minutes; EU Employment change and GDP|
|18/08/21||RBNZ interest rate decision and statement; UK inflation data (including CPI); EU CPI; Canada CPI|
|19/08/21||Australian Employment report|
|20/08/21||Japan CPI; UK Retail Sales|