Equities stay strong, despite disappointing US Employment report


Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments

  • The standout economic event last week was the August US Employment report on Friday, which was disappointing, the headline Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data missed expectations, posting at 235K, with 750K expected.
  • Prior monthly gains were revised higher though, whilst the Unemployment Rate fell to a pandemic-era low at 5.2%.
  • Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from Markit and the US Institution of Supply Management (ISM) for Manufacturing and Services on Wednesday and Friday respectively were mixed, with European data on the softer side, whilst US data from the ISM surprised on the upside.
  • The ongoing global spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant and the concerns regarding the new Mu variant, leave global financial markets vulnerable to erratic, “risk off” moves.

Global financial market developments

  • Global shares indices again pushed higher with US indices leading the way to new record levels, but with European averages trying to play catch up now
  • US Bonds consolidated again.
  • The US Dollar weakened further, through did attempt a small rebound on Friday.
  • EURUSD and GBPUSD posted firm gains (but did setback on Friday).
EURUSD chart
  • Gold has rallied and is pointing higher.
  • Oil extended its rebound advance.
  • Copper dipped but sustains the rebound bias.

Key this week

  • Geopolitics:
    • US Labor Day Holiday on Monday 6th September, markets closed.
    • Watching the impact of the global spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant.
    • Monitoring for a renewal of lockdowns or for further global lockdown easings.
  • Central Bank Watch:  A busy week for Cepstral Banks as we get the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision and statement on Tuesday, and the same from the Bank of Canada (BoC) on Wednesday and the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday.
  • Macroeconomic data: Data standouts this week are the GDP releases from the EU, Japan and the UK, the German ZEW Survey, plus China and Canadian inflation data.
DateKey Macroeconomic Events
06/09/21US Labor Day Holiday markets closed
07/09/21China trade data; RBA interest rate decision and statement; EU GDP; German ZEW Survey
08/09/21Japan GDP; BoC interest rate decision and statement
09/09/21China inflation data; ECB interest rate decision and statement
10/09/21UK GDP, Industrial and Manufacturing Production; German inflation data; Canadian Employment report

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued

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