“Risk currencies” surge – AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts

  • An aggressive advance has been seen across the major “risk currencies” (Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars) since the US election results started to come in.
  • You can learn more about “risk currencies” in our report on “Which Forex markets and currencies should I trade?
  • This has been a reaction to a global shift to a “risk on” theme due to:
    • An expectation of a Biden victory
    • Anticipation of a more conciliatory tone from Biden on foreign policy and trade (compared to Trump)
  • However, this is still against a backdrop of:
    • Extremely high numbers cases and hospitalisations of COVID-19 in Europe, alongside a rising numbers of deaths
    • Significant new lockdowns measures throughout Europe
    • Ominously rising COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations in the US.
  • Here we take a technical analysis look for today and into mid-November at AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD.

AUDUSD day trade outlook: Intermediate-term bullish shift, aiming higher 

Again, a surge on Thursday above key .7244 resistance, to signal an intermediate-term bull shift and also overcome the .7266/70 area, to .7289, to build on Wednesday’s strong rally that reversed above the down trend line from late August, to keep the threat to the upside into Friday.

Day trade setup

  • We see an upside bias for .7289 and .7301; a break here aims for .7324 and maybe .7345, even towards .7382.
  • But below .7199 aims for .7142 and opens risk down to .7104.

AUDUSD intermediate-term outlook

The early November push above the key .7244 resistance signalled an intermediate-term shift to bullish.

  • Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for .7413 and .7677.
  • What changes this? Below .7046 sees the intermediate-term bull trend switch to neutral and below .6987 to a bear trend.

8 Hour AUDUSD Chart

audusd chart

NZDUSD day trade outlook: Bull theme

A strong advance Thursday above .6743 resistance and on Friday already through close the next barrier at .6775, building on the erratic but strong Tuesday-Wednesday rally, fully rejecting negative pressures from the potential large Head & Shoulders top, to aim higher into Friday.

Day trade setup

  • We see an upside bias for the cycle peak at .6798; a break here aims for .6837 and maybe towards .6866
  • But below .6727 aims for .6677 and maybe opens risk down to .6642/37.

NZDUSD intermediate-term outlook

The late October push above .key .6682/88 resistances signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.

  • Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to target .6798, .6969/70 and maybe .7395/7400.
  • What changes this? Below .6486 sets an intermediate-term bear trend.

8 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart

USDCAD day trade outlook: Bear threat to key supports at 1.2990 and 1.2948

A Thursday sell-off again to surrender 1.3091, 1.3077 and 1.3033 supports, to build on Wednesday’s plunge through numerous supports including the tentative support line from the September and October swing lows, to leave the risk lower for Friday.

Day trade setup

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3024 and key 1.2990; a break here aims for critical 1.2948 and maybe 1.2907/03.
  • But above 1.3148 opens risk up to 1.3200 and possibly towards 1.3300.

USDCAD intermediate-term outlook

The April push below 1.3922 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

  • Downside risks: We see downside risk for 1.2990/1.2948, 1.2799 and 1.2550.
  • What changes this? Above 1.3418/20 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to bullish.

8 Hour USDCAD Chart

usdcad chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

Comment on this video

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Latest Related News

Markets keep the party going, despite surging US COVID-19 cases

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A fairly quiet week on the macroeconomic and geopolitical front, with the holiday shortened session in the US on Thursday and Friday because of Thanksgiving.The main development was on the US political side, as the Presidential transition of power has started properly, and although the Trump administration continues dispute the election result, they have allowed Biden’s team to start the transition. Also,… Continued

US Dollar stays weak as AUDUSD and USDCAD approach key levels

Dollar Index reaches final major support (DXY forecast)Euro breaks up (EURUSD forecast)Pound posts negative (GBPUSD forecast)Aussie reaches major monthly resistance (AUDUSD forecast)Dollar-CAD approaches its major support zone (USDCAD forecast) Continued

NZD leads “risk” currencies higher – NZDUSD, AUDUSD, and USDCAD forecasts

A solid consolidation tone since midweek, but November strength seen across the major “commodity” or “risk” currencies (the New Zealand, Australian and Canadian Dollars) remains intact.The “risk on” price action is still being assisted by:Pfizer, Moderna and Astra Zeneca/ Oxford COVID-19 vaccine hopesExtension of the Biden bounceMixed, but marginally positive economic data compared with consensusHere we look at the NZDUSD, AUDUSD and USDCAD charts and… Continued

AUDUSD Expects to See More Upside Activity – Elliott wave analysis

On the 4h chart of AUDUSD we can see market trading in a bullish price move, commonly named an impulse. An impulse is a five-wave move, that trades into the direction of the stronger trend (in our case this is to the upside). That said, we know that nothing moves in straight lines, which means that after an 1-2-3-4-5 move develops, a temporary A-B-C correction… Continued

“Risk on” mode reflected by “commodity currency” resilience

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The announcement last Monday from Moderna that their COVID-19 vaccine produced very positive trial results sustained the prior “risk on” theme, evident after the similar announcement from Pfizer the Monday before. This “risk on” tone was further reinforced by another positive statement from the Astra Zeneca/ Oxford University trial in the week.On the US politics side, there is still a negative impact… Continued

Forex Brokers in your location


72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.


74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.


75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.


76.4% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.