- An aggressive advance has been seen across the major “risk currencies” (Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars) since the US election results started to come in.
- You can learn more about “risk currencies” in our report on “Which Forex markets and currencies should I trade?”
- This has been a reaction to a global shift to a “risk on” theme due to:
- An expectation of a Biden victory
- Anticipation of a more conciliatory tone from Biden on foreign policy and trade (compared to Trump)
- However, this is still against a backdrop of:
- Extremely high numbers cases and hospitalisations of COVID-19 in Europe, alongside a rising numbers of deaths
- Significant new lockdowns measures throughout Europe
- Ominously rising COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations in the US.
- Here we take a technical analysis look for today and into mid-November at AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD.
AUDUSD day trade outlook: Intermediate-term bullish shift, aiming higher
Again, a surge on Thursday above key .7244 resistance, to signal an intermediate-term bull shift and also overcome the .7266/70 area, to .7289, to build on Wednesday’s strong rally that reversed above the down trend line from late August, to keep the threat to the upside into Friday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for .7289 and .7301; a break here aims for .7324 and maybe .7345, even towards .7382.
- But below .7199 aims for .7142 and opens risk down to .7104.
AUDUSD intermediate-term outlook
The early November push above the key .7244 resistance signalled an intermediate-term shift to bullish.
- Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for .7413 and .7677.
- What changes this? Below .7046 sees the intermediate-term bull trend switch to neutral and below .6987 to a bear trend.
8 Hour AUDUSD Chart
NZDUSD day trade outlook: Bull theme
A strong advance Thursday above .6743 resistance and on Friday already through close the next barrier at .6775, building on the erratic but strong Tuesday-Wednesday rally, fully rejecting negative pressures from the potential large Head & Shoulders top, to aim higher into Friday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for the cycle peak at .6798; a break here aims for .6837 and maybe towards .6866
- But below .6727 aims for .6677 and maybe opens risk down to .6642/37.
NZDUSD intermediate-term outlook
The late October push above .key .6682/88 resistances signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.
- Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to target .6798, .6969/70 and maybe .7395/7400.
- What changes this? Below .6486 sets an intermediate-term bear trend.
8 Hour NZDUSD Chart
USDCAD day trade outlook: Bear threat to key supports at 1.2990 and 1.2948
A Thursday sell-off again to surrender 1.3091, 1.3077 and 1.3033 supports, to build on Wednesday’s plunge through numerous supports including the tentative support line from the September and October swing lows, to leave the risk lower for Friday.
Day trade setup
- We see a downside bias for 1.3024 and key 1.2990; a break here aims for critical 1.2948 and maybe 1.2907/03.
- But above 1.3148 opens risk up to 1.3200 and possibly towards 1.3300.
USDCAD intermediate-term outlook
The April push below 1.3922 set an intermediate-term bear trend.
- Downside risks: We see downside risk for 1.2990/1.2948, 1.2799 and 1.2550.
- What changes this? Above 1.3418/20 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to bullish.
8 Hour USDCAD Chart
