Current Market Analysis

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Major Macro Data 11/27/2023 Nothing of note 11/28/2023 RBNZ interest rate decision, statement and press conference 11/29/2023 EU Consumer Confidence; German CPI; US GDP and PCE (QoQ) 11/30/2023 Chinese PMI; German Retail Sales; German Unemployment; EU CPI; US PCE (MoM and YoY); Canadian GDP; … Continued

US and UK inflation beat expectations => Risk On extends Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Major Macro Data 11/20/2023 PBoC Interest Rate decision 11/21/2023 RBA Meeting Minutes; Canada CPI; US FOMC Meeting Minutes 11/22/2023 US Durable Goods; Michigan Consumer Sentiment 11/23/2023 US Thanksgiving holiday; global Flash PMI from S&P … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: A very quiet week for CB with nothing of note apart from the US Fed speakers to stay in focus. Macro Data Watch: An important week for data with CPI data releases from the US (Tuesday), UK (Wednesday) and the EU (Friday), … Continued

So far this year, companies have planned 604,514 job cuts, a 198% increase from the 209,495 cuts announced through September 2022. It is the highest January-September total since 2020 when 2,082,262 cuts were recorded. Apart from that COVID year it is the highest January to September total since 2009. The real story behind the labor … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week General: US Daylight Saving Time ended at the weekend, so the time difference between the US and the rest of the planet is back to normal in most cases  Central Bank Watch: A relatively quiet week for CBs, we get Bank of Japan (BoJ) Meeting … Continued

It’s possible to think that corporate ESG – environmental, social and governance – investing is a thoroughly good idea. Which is how fashionable society seems to see it right now. It’s also possible to think that corporate ESG is merely a passing fad and an expression of the agency problem – precisely because fashionable society … Continued

The Markets in Crypto Assets is the EU’s regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and digital assets. Through it, the European Union aims to centralize regulations governing the issuance and sale of digital assets, including bitcoin and various other cryptocurrencies. In addition to replacing a patchwork of national crypto regulations, MiCA will also clarify the playing field … Continued

CAB Payments was an IPO on the London market back only this summer. It’s also imploded already.  Which is pretty good and matches the very worst performances from some of the Nasdaq despac operations. And IPO is supposed to be very much more verified than a Spac so this isn’t a grand advertisement for participating … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week General: UK and EU Daylight Saving Time ended at the weekend, so for this week there is only a 4-hour time difference between London and New York. Daylight Saving Time ends in the US next weekend, 4/5 November. Central Bank Watch: The Bank of Japan … Continued

It is indeed true that Gina Rinehart has built a 20% position in Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR) and she’s long been known as a very canny strategic player in the metals business. But that’s not to say that she – or anyone else – is always right in this space. It’s equally possible to believe … Continued

The price of SolarEdge (NASDAQ: SEDG) dropped 27% in one day last week. That of Enphase (NASDAQ: ENPH) followed within minutes by falling 15%. The two companies are not directly related, they’re not – at least not particularly – supplier and customer, or partners. They are in the same sector though. Which is the thing … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: The Fed is in its blackout period ahead of the November 1st interest rate decision. We get the Bank of Canada (BoC) and European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions, statements and press conferences on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.  Macroeconomic data Watch: … Continued

Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) just stopped a set of tests for semaglutide, their wonder drug. The share prices of the kidney dialysis companies all dropped 20% within hours. The big question is whether this is the right reaction, too much or too little? It’s entirely possible to argue any of those three cases but the … Continued

The Securities and Exchange Commission over in the US has decided that short selling is one of these nefarious attacks upon the integrity of the markets. At least that’s the usual Democratic Party response to the very idea of short selling. Which is, as we all know, selling something now in the hope of being … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: A quiet week for central banks, though we do get Fed speakers through the week, which is the last week before the Fed speaker blackout period ahead of the early November FOMC Meeting. We get Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes … Continued

The major issue with the bond market right now is the overwhelming amount of bond issuance combined with the notable absence of the usual buyers. In other words, the illiquidity is already causing U.S. sovereign debt to trade like a microcap penny stock. This dysfunctional trading environment should become exponentially worse by the end of … Continued

It’s a standard outcome of the standard investing theories that diversification is good. On the fairly obvious grounds that spreading your risks is a good thing to be doing. Yes, yes, this idea really is the killer and yet there’s always that possibility that something will come up to kill it. So, not all eggs … Continued

In the wake of Hamas attacks, the US-brokered deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia now hangs by a thread. What’s going on? In March 2020, when the covid-19 pandemic sent the UK into lockdown, half the country stopped work overnight. Not financial analysts though — as the global stock market lost a third of its … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week A quiet start to the week, with the US Columbus Day holiday on Monday, US cash bond markets are closed, plus it is Thanksgiving Day in Canada. Central Bank Watch: A quiet week for central banks, with the main focus on the release of the … Continued

Yes. Well, OK, we might need a little more explanation than that. Environmental, social and governance investing, ESG, is absolutely, wholly, worth it in one sense, the moral one. As a way to make money well, not so much. Which means that if you’re looking to invest while keeping your soul pure then ESG might … Continued

Pilbara Minerals is great actually, it’s the result of one of the blindingly best mining deals in recent years. Once there was a lithium miner called Altura, financed in the last lithium mining boom of 2013/4. Which found lithium, developed the mine and was doing great right up to the day it went bust. The … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 10/02/2023 Global Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global; US ISM Manufacturing PMI; Fed’s Powell speaks; EU Unemployment 10/03/2023 RBA interest rate decision and statement 10/04/2023 RBNZ interest rate decision and statement; Global Services and Composite PMI from S&P Global; EU Retail Sales; … Continued

It’s possible to think that the Spac boom is near its end. We can approach this through theory, we can approach it through cynical realism, we can approach it through recent results. This isn’t to say that no Spac (or “despac”) deal is ever going to work but perhaps it’s time to admit that the … Continued

The ways in which values change as macroeconomic conditions change can be complex and not even obvious. One recent one, over the past couple of years, makes older British companies more valuable relative to newer ones. Now, of course, this doesn’t mean that all older companies are now worth more than all new ones. Rather, … Continued

FTSE-only ISA allowances could boost the AIM market sharply; scrapping Inheritance Tax could have the opposite effect. Read why below. Cast your mind back to November 2022 — centuries in investing, and yet less than a year ago. After the Truss-Kwarteng mini-budget adventure, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is telling the nation that even though we are … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 09/25/2023 German IFO Survey 09/26/2023 US Consumer Confidence 09/27/2023 Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes; Australian CPI; US Durable Goods Orders 09/28/2023 German CPI; US GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) QoQ; Fed’s Powell speaks 09/29/2023 UK GDP; German Retail Sales and … Continued

There is much excitement in the cannabis industry as the Federales start to talk about legalisation. Or changing the legal description and restrictions at least. Or something in the run up to an election perhaps. This might not be as wondrous as many a share price seems to assume. The particular and specific is that … Continued

Investing in development pharmaceutical companies is one of those high risk rollercoasters that can be terribly exciting – and, if done right, profitable. But to be profitable it’s essential to understand the structure of how the business works. Precisely because it’s a rollercoaster some managements can be a little more aggressive, to be mild about … Continued

The US recession is merely delayed, not canceled. The soft-landing narrative is a myth. The government’s fiscal stimulus in 2023 has temporarily lifted the GDP growth rate. However, fiscal stimulus is not a reliable source of economic growth. It undermines productivity in the long term. It also creates problems such as higher taxes, higher interest … Continued

The ghastly problem with mantras about the economy, rules we think are certain, is that they only apply sometimes. A useful macroeconomic trade is to play the FTSE100 to GBP, or pound sterling rate. This does only work one way though – FTSE rising does not change the value of the pound. But the GBP … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 09/11/2023 Nothing of note 09/12/2023 UK Employment report; German ZEW Survey 09/13/2023 UK GDP, Industrial and Manufacturing Production; US CPI 09/14/2023 Australian Employment report; ECB interest rate decision and press conference; US PPI and Retail Sales 09/15/2023 Chinese Industrial Production and … Continued

The idea that a start up Vietnamese EV maker is worth more than Boeing does tell us that VinFast (NASDAQ: VFS) is over-valued. Well, either that or that Boeing is under-valued of course. But that VinFast has at times been worth more than Ford, GM, Stellantis, at times even worth more than two of the … Continued

Increasing Sino-US tensions, emergency fiscal measures, and a collapsing real estate sector all signpost a near-term serious economic shock. While economists have been warning that China faces imminent economic collapse since the start of the economic miracle, the warning signs coming out of the Communist country’s heavily massaged figures are blaring red. Of course, this … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 09/04/2023 US Labor Day public holiday 09/05/2023 Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy, Final Services PMIs for Eurozone & UK, US Factory Orders 09/06/2023 Australian GDP, Bank of Canada monetary policy; ISM Services PMI, Fed’s Beige Book 09/07/2023 China’s Trade Balance; … Continued