FX Explained MacroWatch: w/c 05/08/19

Intermediate
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting concluded Wednesday with an expected 25bp rate cut, which saw equity markets push lower, frustrated with a less dovish tone than expected, BUT then a more plunge lower for stocks and a US$ strengthening in the wake of Chairman Powell’s comments, stating the rate cut was a “mid-cycle adjustment”.
  • A rebound higher at first Thursday for equity markets, BUT then President Trump took to social media to state that from 1st September the US would levy another 10% of tariffs on $300bn of Chinese imports. This sent equity markets plunging lower once more and produced notable gains for the US Dollar against most currencies (through the Japanese Yen was by far the strongest performer amongst the Majors).
  • The always much-watched US Employment report was released Friday and was mixed, but equities averages again pushed lower with the US currency higher versus most currencies.
  • Throughout the risk off scenario from the middle of last week the Japanese Yen has rallied even more than the US Dollar across G10 currencies, in a safe-haven move.

Key this week

  • Key this week will be to monitor further comments from Fed speakers as to the potential impact on the US economy from the imposition of further tariffs on China.
  • Plus, any further developments on the US-Sino trade talks from the White House.
Date Key Macroeconomic Events
05/08/19 Markit PMI surveys (global); ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (US)
06/08/19 Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision
07/08/19 Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision
08/08/19 China Trade data
09/08/19 China CPI; UK GDP & Manufacturing Production; Canada Employment data
Date Key Earnings Events Country
05/08/19 HSBC UK
06/08/19 Walt Disney US

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