G10 FX Monthly Candlesticks June 2019

Intermediate

Summary of the June monthly candlestick, along with trending & momentum developments across G-10 FX and implications for months ahead.

EURUSD

  • Monthly Candle: Strong bull candle with close above April & May highs. Large body shows strong sentiment.
    • Implication: Trimming losses after April/May show indecision through long legged Doji and Spinning Top patterns. Confirms a pause in the ongoing 2018 decline.
  • Trending: 12 month MA @ 1.1364, continues to fall.
  • Momentum: RSI (9) @ 42. Stochastics (10-6-3) positively aligned, rising out of oversold.
  • YTD Return: -2.78%
EURUSD Chart June 2019

GBPUSD

  • Monthly Candle: Spinning top formation in June after May’s large body selloff.
    • Implication: Market pauses and downside momentum fades after it stages a strong bear move.
  • Trending: 12 month MA @ 1.2885, continues to fall.
  • Momentum: RSI (9) @ 36. Stochastics (10-6-3) negatively aligned, falling towards oversold.  
  • YTD Return:  -1.51%
GBPUSD Chart June 2019

USDCHF

  • Monthly Candle: Long bear body in June after May’s Marubozu Shaven Bottom. Prices close at its lowest since September 2018.
    • Implication: Bearish pressures continued in June. Market rejects Jan low and suggests bulls still alive.
  • Trending: 12 month MA @ 0.9924, flat.
  • Momentum: RSI (9) @ 49. Stochastics (10-6-3) negatively aligned, falling towards neutral.
  • YTD Return: +1.72%
USDCHF Chart June 2019

NZDUSD

  • Monthly Candle: Bullish Marubozu candle closing above May’s high. Market continues to hold key psychological figure of 0.65.
    • Implication: Bulls take control as market tries to approach 2018 lows, stalling the overall negative bias.
  • Trending: 12 month MA @ 0.6704, continues to fall.
  • Momentum: RSI (9) @ 44. Stochastics (10-6-3) negatively aligned, flat and neutral.
  • YTD Return: -1.45%
NZDUSD Chart June 2019

AUDUSD

  • Monthly Candle: Bullish Hammer Candle, however, body about the same size of shadow. Prices stall at the 23.6% fibo at 0.6829 of the 2019 rally.
    • Implication: Market halts further declines after April/May weakening. Large shadow suggests strong bull interest at lower levels.
  • Trending: 12 month MA @ 0.7166, continues to fall.
  • Momentum: RSI (9) @ 38. Stochastics (10-6-3) positively aligned, flat and neutral.
  • YTD Return: -1.31%
AUDUSD Chart June 2019

USDJPY

  • Monthly Candle: Doji candle in June after May’s bearish Marubozu Shaven Bottom. June touches lowest since Jan flash crash at 106.78.
    • Implication: Indecision candle stalls losses. Market generally balance but bears have some control over bulls.
  • Trending: 12 month MA @ 110.64, begins to turn lower.
  • Momentum: RSI (9) @ 41. Stochastics (10-6-3) negatively aligned, falling through neutral.
  • YTD Return: -2.42%
USDJPY Chart June 2019

USDCAD

  • Monthly Candle: Large negative Marubozu candle. Closes at its lowest since October 2018.
    • Implication: Recent rally in danger as sellers take control of the market and hold onto key close. They keep the sideways picture intact.
  • Trending: 12 month MA @ 1.3229, flat.
  • Momentum: RSI (9) @ 48. Stochastics (10-6-3) negatively aligned, falling towards neutral.
  • YTD Return: -0.03%
USDCAD Chart June 2019

USDNOK

  • Monthly Candle: Large negative candle in June. First losing month since January.
    • Implication: Multiple failures of a close above resistance c.8.80 causes sellers to attack and keep pair from breaking out of long term range.
  • Trending: 12 month MA @ 8.5205, continues to rise.
  • Momentum: RSI (9) @ 55. Stochastics (10-6-3) negatively aligned, falls out of overbought.
  • YTD Return: -1.74%
USDNOK Chart June 2019

USDSEK

  • Monthly Candle: Negative candle in June after May’s Gravestone Doji. First losing month since January-similar to USDNOK.
    • Implication: Buyers lose control after failing multiple time to close above 9.50. For now, reversal pattern take steam out of the 1 and a half year bull run.
  • Trending: 12 month MA @ 9.1918, continues to rise.
  • Momentum: RSI (9) @ 60. Stochastics (10-6-3) negatively aligned, falls out of overbought.
  • YTD Return: +10.77%
USDSEK Chart June 2019

DXY

  • Monthly Candle: Long bear candle. Buyers struggled to push prices above the open. Market fails at 61.8% fib level of the 2017-2018 decline at 97.83.
    • Implication: Upside continuation paused by sellers, keeping it within the 2019 range.
  • Trending: 12 month MA @ 96.23, continues to rise.
  • Momentum: RSI (9) @ 53. Stochastics (10-6-3) negatively aligned, falls out of overbought.
  • YTD Return: +1.3%

Editor

Akif SH. Din MSTA, CFTe, 2018 Bronwen Wood Memorial Prize Winner, has a solid understanding of global markets, fundamental analysis as well as having a vast amount of knowledge in technical analysi...continued

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