US equities strong, but cautious ahead of the Fed Meeting

Intermediate
  • A surge higher again Tuesday by US and global equity averages, in most cases positing new cycle and 2019 highs.
  • This bullish behaviour has reinforced both short- and intermediate-term bullish themes that have dominated this year.
  • The most recent up lift was triggered by the “No Deal” Brexit being taken off the table last week.
  • However, some ongoing concerns around US-Sino trade negotiations, plus today’s upcoming Federal reserve Meeting saw major European and US indices dip back yesterday from the new 2019 peaks.
  • Here we focus on the US benchmark average, the S&P 500, into the FOMC decision, statement and press conference.

Another S&P 500 E-Mini bullish extension

A strong advance Tuesday through 2844.75 and 2850.0 resistances to another new 2019 and cycle high, after Monday’s probe through a key Q4 2018 level at 2836.5 AND last Friday’s firm advance above another key Q4 2018 target at 2832.75, and despite an intraday setback while above 2823.5 we see risks higher for Wednesday.

The late January push above 2690.5 shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bullish.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 2849/50 and 2858.75/61.75; break here aims for 2874/75, maybe towards 2891.25.
  • But below 2823.5 opens risk down to 2812.5, which we would look to try to hold. Below targets 2801/00.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 2832.75/36/5.

  • Higher targets would be 2955.5/61.25 and 2600.0
  • What Changes This? Below 2726.5 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 2686.0 is needed for a bear theme.
SP500 Chart

4 Hour Chart

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