Brexit deal hopes has seen the UK Pound surge against the US Dollar late this week.
Moreover, a recovery in equity indices over the past week has seen a switch back towards a “risk on” theme, with the perception still that the US Fed will cut rates again into year-end. This has left the US Dollar weakened and vulnerable.
EURUSD: Risks remain to the upside
A strong advance Thursday through 1.1001 and 1.1024/26 resistances as we had flagged for, to reinforce Tuesday’s setback and rebounded exactly from our 1.0939 support, sustaining upside forces from the early October advance, to keep risks higher for Friday.
- We see an upside bias for 1.1033; break here aims for 1.1082 and maybe key 1.1110.
- But below 1.0982 opens risk down to 1.0959 and maybe 1.0939.
GBPUSD: Intermediate-term bullish shift
A surge Thursday through multiple resistances and although not above our key 1.2582 peak, the impulsive advance is enough for us to shift our intermediate-term view to bullish.
Furthermore, this keeps risks higher for Friday.
- We see an upside bias for 1.2469; break here aims for 1.2503 and 1.2544, maybe 1.2582.
- But below 1.2400 opens risk down to 1.2360 and 1.2320, maybe 1.2266.
USDCAD: Holding onto a rebound bias
A Thursday setback through our 1.3286/84 supports but then a rebound from above 1.3234 (from 1.3265), to hang onto a positive tone from the early October surge up through 1.3291 from the 1.3209/00 support area, to keep risks higher for Friday.
- We see an upside bias for 1.3348; break here aims for key 1.3383 and maybe towards 1.3433.
- But below 1.3265 opens risk down to 1.3234 and 1.3201/00.
AUDUSD: Upside threat to key .6809 and .6895 resistances
A Thursday dip and a strong rebound from just above .6699 support (from .6708), to push above .6757 resistance for a bullish outside daily pattern and overnight now above the peaks in the .6774/81 area, to sustain positive pressures from the firm, early October advance through the down trend line from September, to keep the bias higher Friday.
- We see an upside bias for .6782; break here very aims for key .6809 and maybe then .6829.
- But below .6739 opens risk down to .6708/6699.
NZDUSD: Upside risks to key .6349 and .6451
A setback Thursday just below .679 support to bounce from .6275 to reinforce upside pressures from the early October advance above .6327 resistance and the down trend line from mid-September, to keep the bias higher for Friday.
- We see an upside bias through .6335/38; break here aims for key .6349, maybe .6362
- But below .6275 opens risk down to .6252, maybe .6215.
USDJPY: Bull threat to key 108.45/48 resistances
A surge Thursday through 107.47 and 107.89 resistances, to full reject negative forces from the early October push down below key 106.93 support, to flip keep the threat higher into Friday.
- We see an upside bias through 108.13 for key 108.45/48 peaks; break here aims for 1.0877 and 109.00/02.
- But below 107.33 opens risk down to 107.01.