The Forex Zone – Trade tensions and a RBNZ rate cut sees a volatile week


Here in The Forex Zone we look at day trade outlooks for most watched and traded Forex currency pairs at the end to a week in which we saw volatility across FX markets and a rate cut from the RBNZ. Here we highlight the important levels to monitor and the directional risks for the key Forex currency pairs; EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDJPY.

EURUSD: Positive tone

A firm consolidation tone Thursday holding above our 1.1177/66 recent supports after Wednesday’s push above 1.1229 resistance, to sustain the recovery theme from Monday’s surge above key 1.1188 (to neutralise the intermediate-term bear theme), to keep risks to the upside for Friday.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.1249; break here aims for key 1.1286 and maybe 1.1322.
  • But below 1.1177/66 opens risk down to 1.1113.
EURUSD Chart 2019-08-09

GBPUSD: Negative tone

A low-level consolidation tone Wednesday-Thursday to prod below 1.2114 support, after Tuesday’s breakout failure and setback from below the solid 1.2250 barrier (from 1.2210) to leave a negative bias to the August consolidation phase and keep risks lower for Friday.

For Today:                                               

  • We see a downside bias for 1.2094 and 1.2078; break here aims for 1.2055/50 and 1.2012.
  • But above 1.2210 opens risk up to 1.2250, which we would look to try to cap.
GBPUSD Chart 2019-08-09

USDCAD: Risks flip lower again

A selloff Thursday through 1.3260 and 1.3217 supports, for now rejecting the midweek push through the peak at 1.3266, to ease upside forces from the strong advance to end July, switching the bias back lower for Friday.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3208; break here aims for 1.3172, maybe towards 1.3122.
  • But above 1.3243 opens risk up to 1.3278.
USDCAD Chart 2019-08-09

AUDUSD: Intermediate-term shift from bearish to neutral; upside risks

A surge higher late Wednesday and Thursday to reverse above the down trendline from July and also overcome the key .6819 resistance level, to shift the intermediate-term outlook to neutral, with an intermediate-term range now seen as .6899 to .6707.

Furthermore, this positive price action also sets the bias to the upside for Friday.

For Today:                                                         

  • We see an upside bias for .6822; break here aims for .6868 and maybe key .6899.
  • But below .6778 quickly opens risk down to .6763, maybe .6743.
AUDUSD Chart 2019-08-09

NZDUSD: Bounce switches bias higher

The rally above .6486 Thursday has eased bear forces from Wednesday’s plunge (driven by the RBNZ more aggressive than expected rate cut), to switch risks higher for Friday.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias through .6495; break here aims for 6525/27, maybe .6557.
  • But below .6445 quickly opens risk down to .6432, possibly .6400/6396.
NZDUSD Chart 2019-08-09

USDJPY: Bear bias intact

A consolidation Thursday after Wednesday’s roll back lower through 106.10 support to prod to a new cycle low at 105.48, further rejecting Tuesday’s spike higher and reinforce the failure back lower from below the better 107.28 barrier (from 107.09), to keep risks lower for Friday.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 105.48; break here aims for 105.29 and 105.00, even towards 104.56.
  • But above 106.30 opens risk up to 106.64.
USDJPY Chart 2019-08-09

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