Current Market Analysis

What to expect from US Industrial Production data Scheduled for release at 14:15 GMT on Friday, March 15, the US Industrial Production data for February is highly anticipated by economists, policymakers, and investors. This report provides crucial insights into the performance and trends within the manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors, offering valuable indications of economic … Continued

What to expect from US PPI data The upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) report, scheduled for release on Thursday, March 14th at 13:30 GMT, is poised to offer critical insights into inflationary pressures within the economy, particularly at the producer level. Analysts’ consensus estimates for February’s PPI report indicate expectations for modest inflationary growth. … Continued

What to Expect from the US CPI Report Scheduled for release on March 12th, 2024, at 12:30 GMT, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February is poised to attract significant attention from economists, policymakers, and investors alike. This report offers crucial insights into inflationary trends, guiding monetary policy decisions and shaping market expectations. … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: Nothing of note from central banks this week, but as ever Fed speakers must be watched. Macro Data Watch: The standout data for the week will be US CPI on Tuesday, plus we also get the UK Employment report and German CPI … Continued

What to Expect from the US Employment Report As anticipation builds for the release of the US Employment Report, economists and market analysts are closely scrutinising various indicators to gauge the health of the labour market and broader economy. Here’s what to expect from the upcoming report based on recent data and expert forecasts. Economists … Continued

The UK Spring Budget is a pivotal event in the nation’s fiscal calendar, where the Chancellor of the Exchequer outlines the government’s taxation and spending plans for the upcoming financial year. This annual presentation typically occurs in March and serves as a platform for the Chancellor to address Parliament and the public, detailing key economic … Continued

Current Climate: US Economy and Fed Speakers Outlook Federal Reserve officials have recently conveyed a cautious stance regarding the possibility of swift interest rate cuts, reflecting their assessment of the current state of the US economy. Governor Michelle Bowman, among others, emphasised the importance of maintaining the policy rate steady, citing potential risks to inflation … Continued

What to Expect from the UK Budget Report The UK Budget Report, scheduled for presentation by Treasury Chancellor Jeremy Hunt on Wednesday, 6th March at 12:30 GMT, is poised to address critical fiscal and economic matters impacting the nation. Traditionally, the Budget serves as a roadmap for the government’s financial plans for the upcoming fiscal … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: A notable week for central banks, as we see the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate decision, Statement: and Conference Thursday. Plus, an important focus will be as Fed Chair Jerome … Continued

What to Expect from US PMI data The upcoming release of US PMI data is highly anticipated by analysts and investors, providing crucial insights into the performance of the manufacturing sector. S&P Global is set to release its Manufacturing PMI for February at 2:45 GMT, with expectations hovering around 51.5, matching the flash estimate reported … Continued

What to Expect from the US PCE Data The upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data release, scheduled for 13:30 GMT on Thursday, February 29th, is expected to provide insights into the trajectory of inflation in the United States. Economists anticipate that the report will confirm January’s setback in the battle against rapid cost-of-living increases. … Continued

What to expect from the US GDP data The upcoming first revision of Q4 US GDP data, scheduled for Wednesday, February 28th at 13:30 GMT, is highly anticipated as it provides a comprehensive assessment of the nation’s economic performance during the fourth quarter. This data, released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, offers insights … Continued

What to expect from the US Durable Goods data Investors and economists eagerly await the release of the US Durable Goods data, scheduled for 13:30 GMT on Tuesday, February 27th. The report by the US Census Bureau provides crucial insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and broader economic activity in the United States.  … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: A very quiet week for central banks, but we do see the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision Wednesday. Macro Data Watch: The focus this week will be on German Gfk Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales, Unemployment and CPI, US Durable … Continued

What to Expect from the US S&P Global PMI Releases As the U.S. S&P Global PMI releases approach, scheduled for 14:45 GMT on Thursday, February 22nd, 2024, analysts are anticipating crucial insights into the country’s economic performance. Consensus forecasts suggest a slight moderation in the S&P Global Services PMI for February, with expectations set at … Continued

What to expect from Nvidia’s Earnings Nvidia’s forthcoming Q4 2023 earnings call, scheduled for Wednesday, February 21st, 2024, is anticipated to be a pivotal event not only for the company itself but also for the broader technology landscape, particularly in the realm of artificial intelligence (AI). As the third most valuable company on Wall Street, … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Holidays: As Asian markets return from the Lunar New Year holidays last week, the US President’s Day holiday is on Monday 19th February. Central Bank Watch: A relatively quiet week for central banks, but we do see the PBoC Interest Rate Decision Tuesday. Macro Data … Continued

What to Expect from NatWest’s Earnings Investors eagerly anticipate NatWest’s 2023 Q4 earnings call, scheduled for release on Friday, February 16th, 2024. With a market cap of £17.851B, the bank faces high expectations following its recent challenges and amidst significant market competition. In light of the forecasted Q4 EPS of £0.07 and revenue forecast of … Continued

US CPI Expectations As anticipation builds for the upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on February 13th, market participants are bracing for critical insights into the state of inflation. This data arrives amidst a backdrop of heightened attention following a robust January jobs report and the Federal Reserve‘s cautious stance on inflation. … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Other Events: Chinese New Year is this week, so mainland Chinese markets and other Asian markets will be closed, so Asian sessions could be particularly quiet. Central Bank Watch: A quiet week for central banks, Fed speakers always in focus. Macro Data Watch: A busy … Continued

Why are AstraZeneca’s Earnings so Important? AstraZeneca is a leading global biopharmaceutical company renowned for its innovative medicines in areas such as oncology, cardiovascular, respiratory, and immunology. As one of the largest pharmaceutical companies worldwide, AstraZeneca’s earnings releases are highly anticipated and closely monitored by investors, analysts, and healthcare professionals.  These releases provide critical insights … Continued

Why are Vodafone’s Earnings so Important? Vodafone Group Plc, commonly known as Vodafone, is a global telecommunications company headquartered in London, United Kingdom. With operations spanning across Europe, Africa, Asia, and Oceania, Vodafone is one of the world’s largest telecommunications providers, offering mobile and fixed-line services, broadband, and digital television.  The company’s earnings releases hold … Continued

The US 2023 fourth-quarter earnings season is in full swing, with 230 S&P 500 companies already reporting. Impressively, 80% of these companies have exceeded Wall Street’s expectations, as reported by LSEG. Last week was extremely busy, seeing the likes of Microsoft and Alphabet earnings Tuesday and Amazon, Apple and Meta reporting Thursday. This week will … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: A quiet week for central banks, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Tuesday, plus as always, a focus on Fed speakers. Macro Data Watch: Also, a quiet week for data. The focus for the week will be Monday’s Services and Composite … Continued

Updated 02/02/2024: Apple’s 2023 Q4 earnings call, unveiled on February 1st, 2024, showcased the tech giant’s financial prowess, with figures that slightly outperformed expectations. The reported earnings per share (EPS) stood at $2.18, surpassing the forecasted $2.1. The revenue for the quarter reached a remarkable $119.58 billion, exceeding the anticipated $118.06 billion. These robust financial … Continued

What is the US Employment Report? The US Employment Report, a monthly release from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), serves as an essential economic compass, offering in-depth perspectives on the dynamics of the nation’s labour market. This comprehensive report comprises several critical metrics, prominently featuring nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rates, and average hourly earnings.  … Continued

Update 31/01/2024: Microsoft’s 2023 Q4 earnings call, released on January 30th, 2024, showcased a robust financial performance for the tech giant. According to data from investing.com, Microsoft reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.93, surpassing the forecasted EPS of $2.78. The company’s revenue for the quarter reached $62 billion, slightly exceeding the predicted revenue … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: A significant week for central banks with monetary policy decisions on Wednesday from the Fed and on Thursday from the Bank of England (BoE). Macro Data Watch: Standouts this week are EU GDP (YoY, QoQ) on Tuesday, Japan Retail Trade and Sales … Continued

Caterpillar Earnings Caterpillar Inc., a global leader in manufacturing construction and mining equipment, engines, and industrial gas turbines, holds significant importance in the financial landscape. Renowned for its iconic yellow machinery, Caterpillar is a key player in the machinery and equipment sector, providing essential tools for construction, resource extraction, and infrastructure development worldwide.  Why are … Continued

What is the European Central Bank? The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central banking authority responsible for formulating and implementing monetary policy within the Eurozone. Established in 1998 and headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany, the ECB plays a pivotal role in maintaining price stability and supporting sustainable economic growth across the member countries that share … Continued

In the ever-evolving landscape of financial markets, corporate earnings releases stand as pivotal moments, offering investors and analysts a lens into the financial health and strategic trajectories of major companies. Today, we continue to cover the ongoing US Earnings releases, having given a preview on 23rd January releases.  This article will delve into the anticipated … Continued

An earnings release, a critical financial document, is issued quarterly by publicly traded companies to disclose financial performance. Mandated by regulatory authorities like the SEC, it includes income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements. This report communicates a company’s financial health, operational achievements, and future outlook to investors and analysts. Investors analyse it closely … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: Although the Fed have entered their blackout period, a bust week elsewhere for Central Banks, as we get interest rate decisions from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) Monday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Tuesday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) on … Continued

TSMC Stocks Surge, with Positive 2024 Outlook due to Continued Apple Collaboration and AI Boom Who are TSMC? Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) stands as a global giant in the semiconductor industry, boasting a market capitalization of 486.28 billion and commanding a pivotal role in the manufacturing landscape. Established in 1987, TSMC has evolved into … Continued

As we approach Friday January 19th the first full week of the US Q4 earnings season comes to a close. Investors are preparing for a flurry of corporate earnings releases that will provide key insights into the financial health of major companies. Among the notable players scheduled to announce their earnings on Friday are; Schlumberger, … Continued

What are US Retail Sales  US Retail Sales data releases are economic indicators that measure the total receipts of retail stores, providing a comprehensive snapshot of consumer spending on goods. These releases encompass a wide range of retail categories, including clothing, electronics, groceries, and other consumer products. The data is collected and reported by the … Continued

Earnings Releases Earnings releases from investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are vital for financial markets, serving as key indicators of the financial industry’s health, risk management, and overall economic conditions. These reports influence market sentiment, guide investment decisions, and provide insights into the banks’ adaptability to changing economic environments. There were multiple … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: Nothing of note from Central banks this coming week, but as ever we will be watching Fed speakers in the final week before they enter their blackout period. Macro Data Watch: The World Economic Forum in Davos runs all week from 15th-19th … Continued

Friday signalled a pivotal juncture with the kick off of the US Earnings Season, as notable companies disclosed their performance metrics. Investors, analysts, and market enthusiasts carefully analysed the data to inform their trading decisions and try to trade the news. This examination zeroes in on the releases from financial corporations that initiated the Q4 … Continued

The stage is set, and the curtains are about to rise on the much-anticipated spectacle in the world of finance – the Q4 2023 US Earnings Season. These unique financial reports reveal valuable data that can send shockwaves through the markets and shape the investment landscape. Investors can trade the news to capitalise on profitable … Continued

What is the US CPI? The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a variety of goods and services. It’s a dynamic basket that includes your morning coffee, the rent for your urban sanctuary, the cost of a new gadget, and even the indulgence of a … Continued

German Industrial Production Worse Than Expected Why is German Industrial Production Data Important? In the financial world, the German industrial production data is more than numbers; it’s the heartbeat of Europe’s economic engine. Here’s why it’s a focal point for trading economic news: Eurozone Foundation: Germany, the Eurozone’s economic powerhouse, lays the foundation. The data … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: No central bank activity of note, but as usual watching for Fed speakers.  Macro Data Watch: US CPI on Thursday is the standout in a relatively light data week.  Date Major Macro Data 01/08/2024 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY & MoM) and Consumer … Continued

This year promises to be one of the most interesting years economically, politically, and market-wise in history. We have two significant global conflicts/wars ongoing, just as President Xi of China is reiterating his promise to annex Taiwan, and Kim Jong Un of North Korea threatens to wipe the US off the map. Meanwhile, we have … Continued

The US Employment Report and Why it Matters When looking at financial markets, few indicators carry the weight and influence of the US Employment Report. Released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this comprehensive report provides a snapshot of the nation’s employment landscape, offering crucial insights into the health and direction of the economy. … Continued

Fed Minutes Recap: Uncertainty and Soft Landing Caution The recently released Fed minutes from the Dec. 12-13 meeting reveal a nuanced landscape of uncertainty among policymakers. Some express concerns about prolonged high rates, fearing a sudden job market downturn, while others advocate for a steady target rate. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, set to join … Continued

What Are The Fed Minutes? The Federal Reserve, often just called “the Fed,” is the gatekeeper of the U.S. economy. They act as the controlling force, pulling levers to control interest rates and monetary policy. Now, the Fed doesn’t operate in complete secrecy; it spills the beans through what we call “Fed Minutes.” Fed Minutes … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week  ​Central Bank Watch: A quieter week for Central Banks, we get the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes and Bank of Japan (BoJ) Monetary Policy decision, statement and conference on Tuesday, then the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) Interest Rate Decision Wednesday. Macro Data … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: Four major central banks in play this week, with the main focus on the Fed decision Wednesday, then we get decisions from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) all on Thursday. Macro … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Major Macro Data 12/04/2023 Nothing of note 12/05/2023 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision; global S&P Global Services and Composite PMI, US ISM Services PMI 12/06/2023 Australian GDP; EU Retail Sales; BoC Interest Rate Decision and Statement; US ADP Employment Change 12/07/2023 China Trade Balance; … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Major Macro Data 11/27/2023 Nothing of note 11/28/2023 RBNZ interest rate decision, statement and press conference 11/29/2023 EU Consumer Confidence; German CPI; US GDP and PCE (QoQ) 11/30/2023 Chinese PMI; German Retail Sales; German Unemployment; EU CPI; US PCE (MoM and YoY); Canadian GDP; … Continued

US and UK inflation beat expectations => Risk On extends Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Major Macro Data 11/20/2023 PBoC Interest Rate decision 11/21/2023 RBA Meeting Minutes; Canada CPI; US FOMC Meeting Minutes 11/22/2023 US Durable Goods; Michigan Consumer Sentiment 11/23/2023 US Thanksgiving holiday; global Flash PMI from S&P … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: A very quiet week for CB with nothing of note apart from the US Fed speakers to stay in focus. Macro Data Watch: An important week for data with CPI data releases from the US (Tuesday), UK (Wednesday) and the EU (Friday), … Continued

So far this year, companies have planned 604,514 job cuts, a 198% increase from the 209,495 cuts announced through September 2022. It is the highest January-September total since 2020 when 2,082,262 cuts were recorded. Apart from that COVID year it is the highest January to September total since 2009. The real story behind the labor … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week General: US Daylight Saving Time ended at the weekend, so the time difference between the US and the rest of the planet is back to normal in most cases  Central Bank Watch: A relatively quiet week for CBs, we get Bank of Japan (BoJ) Meeting … Continued

It’s possible to think that corporate ESG – environmental, social and governance – investing is a thoroughly good idea. Which is how fashionable society seems to see it right now. It’s also possible to think that corporate ESG is merely a passing fad and an expression of the agency problem – precisely because fashionable society … Continued

The Markets in Crypto Assets is the EU’s regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and digital assets. Through it, the European Union aims to centralize regulations governing the issuance and sale of digital assets, including bitcoin and various other cryptocurrencies. In addition to replacing a patchwork of national crypto regulations, MiCA will also clarify the playing field … Continued

CAB Payments was an IPO on the London market back only this summer. It’s also imploded already.  Which is pretty good and matches the very worst performances from some of the Nasdaq despac operations. And IPO is supposed to be very much more verified than a Spac so this isn’t a grand advertisement for participating … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week General: UK and EU Daylight Saving Time ended at the weekend, so for this week there is only a 4-hour time difference between London and New York. Daylight Saving Time ends in the US next weekend, 4/5 November. Central Bank Watch: The Bank of Japan … Continued

It is indeed true that Gina Rinehart has built a 20% position in Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR) and she’s long been known as a very canny strategic player in the metals business. But that’s not to say that she – or anyone else – is always right in this space. It’s equally possible to believe … Continued

The price of SolarEdge (NASDAQ: SEDG) dropped 27% in one day last week. That of Enphase (NASDAQ: ENPH) followed within minutes by falling 15%. The two companies are not directly related, they’re not – at least not particularly – supplier and customer, or partners. They are in the same sector though. Which is the thing … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: The Fed is in its blackout period ahead of the November 1st interest rate decision. We get the Bank of Canada (BoC) and European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions, statements and press conferences on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.  Macroeconomic data Watch: … Continued

Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) just stopped a set of tests for semaglutide, their wonder drug. The share prices of the kidney dialysis companies all dropped 20% within hours. The big question is whether this is the right reaction, too much or too little? It’s entirely possible to argue any of those three cases but the … Continued

The Securities and Exchange Commission over in the US has decided that short selling is one of these nefarious attacks upon the integrity of the markets. At least that’s the usual Democratic Party response to the very idea of short selling. Which is, as we all know, selling something now in the hope of being … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: A quiet week for central banks, though we do get Fed speakers through the week, which is the last week before the Fed speaker blackout period ahead of the early November FOMC Meeting. We get Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes … Continued

The major issue with the bond market right now is the overwhelming amount of bond issuance combined with the notable absence of the usual buyers. In other words, the illiquidity is already causing U.S. sovereign debt to trade like a microcap penny stock. This dysfunctional trading environment should become exponentially worse by the end of … Continued

It’s a standard outcome of the standard investing theories that diversification is good. On the fairly obvious grounds that spreading your risks is a good thing to be doing. Yes, yes, this idea really is the killer and yet there’s always that possibility that something will come up to kill it. So, not all eggs … Continued

In the wake of Hamas attacks, the US-brokered deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia now hangs by a thread. What’s going on? In March 2020, when the covid-19 pandemic sent the UK into lockdown, half the country stopped work overnight. Not financial analysts though — as the global stock market lost a third of its … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week A quiet start to the week, with the US Columbus Day holiday on Monday, US cash bond markets are closed, plus it is Thanksgiving Day in Canada. Central Bank Watch: A quiet week for central banks, with the main focus on the release of the … Continued

Yes. Well, OK, we might need a little more explanation than that. Environmental, social and governance investing, ESG, is absolutely, wholly, worth it in one sense, the moral one. As a way to make money well, not so much. Which means that if you’re looking to invest while keeping your soul pure then ESG might … Continued

Pilbara Minerals is great actually, it’s the result of one of the blindingly best mining deals in recent years. Once there was a lithium miner called Altura, financed in the last lithium mining boom of 2013/4. Which found lithium, developed the mine and was doing great right up to the day it went bust. The … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 10/02/2023 Global Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global; US ISM Manufacturing PMI; Fed’s Powell speaks; EU Unemployment 10/03/2023 RBA interest rate decision and statement 10/04/2023 RBNZ interest rate decision and statement; Global Services and Composite PMI from S&P Global; EU Retail Sales; … Continued