Current Market Analysis

Yen retraces to break point (USDJPY forecast) Aussie breaks up (AUDUSD forecast)

Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast) Aussie breaks down (AUDUSD forecast)

Pound fails at significant resistance barrier (GBPUSD forecast)  Yen posts major buy signal  (USDJPY forecast) 

Euro-Pound hits upside target (EURGBP forecast) Cable rebound still caped by resistance (GBPUSD forecast) Minor supports form for commodity currencies, but still vulnerable (AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts)

US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast)  Euro & Pound break down (EURUSD & GBPUSD forecasts)  Dollar-Yen posts negative (USDJPY forecast)  Euro-Pound and Dollar-CAD continue uptrends (EURGBP & USDCAD forecasts) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The dominant event last week was the far higher than expected release for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. Headline CPI rose 8.3% YoY ended August against expectations of an 8.1% rise. Core inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) leapt to its highest level since March at 6.3%, higher … Continued

Euro-Pound breaks to the upside  (EURGBP forecast) Cable teeters over the edge (GBPUSD forecast) US Dollar-CAD breaks higher (USDCAD forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Easing inflation fears seemed to be at work last week, possibly assisted by a midweek decline in oil prices to multi-month lows. Plus, the Fed’s “Beige Book” indicated that price increases were moderating in 9 of its 12 districts. Fed speakers Brainard and Mester also delivered comments that seemed to be more … Continued

Pound holds critical support (GBPUSD forecast) US Dollar Index retreats and is back in sideways  (DXY forecast) EuroYen reaches major upside target  (EURJPY forecast)

US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast) US Dollar-Yen at multi-year high (USDJPY forecast) Pound is extremely vulnerable (GBPUSD forecast)

Positive appears on Dollar-Yen (USDJPY forecast) US Dollar and Euro stuck in sideways (EURUSD forecast)

EURUSD resistance challenges (EURUSD forecast) Yen turns strong (USDJPY forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The Monthly Fund Manager Survey from Bank of America showed that funds’ cash holdings are at their highest levels since 9/11, and equity exposure at the lowest levels since the 2007–2009 global financial crisis and recession. This can be viewed as a contrary indicator, meaning that there is plenty of cash to … Continued

US Dollar Index sets back (DXY forecast)  US DollarYen false break out higher (USDJPY forecast)  Major support lies below on EuroYen (EURJPY forecast)

US Dollar Index hits major target (DXY forecast) Euro also reaches major level (EURUSD forecast) US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast)

US Dollar Index Extends Bull Trend (DXY forecast) Euro Continues its Bear Trend (EURUSD forecast)

The US Dollar Index Approaches Multi-Year Peak (DXY forecast) Aussie & Kiwi Dollars Break Down ( AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts ) Euro Vulnerable Too (EURUSD forecast) Pound Creates Major Support (GBPUSD forecast)

US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast) Euro and Pound have no support (EURUSD and GBPUSD forecasts) US Dollar-CAD breaks up (USDCAD forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The EU agreed on a partial ban on Russian oil. OPEC+ agreed on bigger oil-output hikes for July and August on Thursday, but still disappointed the oil market, which rebounded strongly, having previously sold off in anticipation of more aggressive hikes. EU inflation hit a new record high at 8.1%. Despite markets … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Selling exhaustion in the equity markets saw recoveries last week, and a cross market shift to a “risk on” theme. This was helped by some positive forecasts from Macy’s, Ralph Lauren and Nordstrom. Fed Minutes pointed to hints of flexibility, helping the more positive outlook. Economic data was mixed, but the PCE … Continued

US Dollar Index continues lower Euro-US Dollar approaching major resistances (EURUSD forecast)

False breakout higher on US Dollar Index leaves major resistance (DXY forecast) But Euro-US Dollar also has major resistance zone above (EURUSD forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US CPI headline data year over year rose 8.3%, falling from March’s pace but not as much as expected, with consensus around 8.1%. Jerome Powell again stated that a hike of 0.75% was not something being actively considered, but was still a possibility. Possible easing of pandemic lockdowns in Shanghai, China brought … Continued

US Dollar Index still cannot break up (DXY forecast)  Euro fails at its breakdown point  (EURUSD forecast)  Euro-Pound breaks up  (EURGBP forecast) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Disappointing earnings results from the tech sector last week, including Alphabet and Amazon, and concerning forward guidance from Apple eclipsed solid Meta numbers. The US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index YOY data, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge posted its first deceleration in over a year, whilst the YOY headline … Continued

Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) But US Dollar Index stops at a major upside resistance (DXY forecast) Kiwi breaks final support (NZDUSD forecast)

Pound breaks down Aussie and Kiwi collapse Dollar-CAD breaks higher 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US headline CPI data leapt by 1.2% in March, with the year-over-year rise at 8.5%, above consensus expectations to a four-decade high. More hawkish comments from Charles Evans of the Fed (historically a dove) regarding accelerated rate hikes echoed the comments the prior week from another dove, Lael Brainard. The European Central … Continued

Euro-Dollar holds key support  (EURUSD forecast)  Dollar Index also holds support (DXY forecast)  US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast)  Aussie and Kiwi break down (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecast) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Hawkish comments from Lael Brainard of the Fed (usually more of a dove) regarding rate hikes and balance sheet normalization saw Bonds yields surge last Tuesday, with growth/ tech stocks leading the US stock averages lower. This was affirmed by Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting Minutes, which reinforced a more hawkish threat from the … Continued

US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast)  But Euro-Dollar does not break down (EURUSD forecast)  Blow off tops on Aussie and Kiwi  (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) 

US Dollar Index holds key support (DXY forecast)  US Dollar-Yen reverses lower (USDJPY forecast)  Aussie approaches major resistance (AUDUSD forecast) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have been less dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as a lack of any significant escalation has seen a further shift towards more of a “risk on” theme for global risky assets (notably stocks) since mid-March. This has also been assisted by hopes from the Ukraine/ Russia talks … Continued

US Dollar-Yen continue its march higher (USDJPY forecast)  Aussie approach major resistance  (AUDUSD forecast)  US Dollar-CAD continues its breakdown  (USDCAD forecast) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have once more been dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but with a shift towards more of a “risk on” theme through mid-March. This has been driven by hopes from minimally positive signals from the Ukraine/ Russia talks. And, although there have been some upsetting impacts on civilians, … Continued

Reversal on US Dollar Index but key support held (DXY forecast)  Pound reaches breakout point (GBPUSD forecast)  US Dollar-Yen reaches major upside target (USDJPY forecast)  

Euro Future hits major downside target (EURUSD forecast)  Pound breaks down  (GBPUSD forecast)  US Dollar-Yen breaks up  (USDJPY forecast) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have again been dominated by developments in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with shifts between “risk off” and “risk on” themes. More punitive sanctions have seen European and U.K. stocks under particular pressure given the likely impact on global trade and the global economy. Global commodity prices have risen … Continued

US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast) Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) Pound hovers above final support (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie and Kiwi both break higher (AUDUSD & NZDUSD forecasts)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The markets were dominated last week with shifts between “risk off” then “risk on” themes with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The “risk off” theme on the initial invasion quickly shifted to “risk on”, as is often seen when conflict is predicted by markets and then finally breaks out, “sell the rumour, … Continued

US Dollar Index fails back lower, but support intact (DXY forecast) Euro rebound to approach resistance (EURUSD forecast) Aussie holds support (AUDUSD forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The markets were dominated last week with shifts between “risk on” then “risk off” themes with conflicting reports regarding the potential for conflict starting between Russia and Ukraine. Reports of Russian troops withdrawing saw a “risk on” move earlier in the week, which was dismissed by Western statements regarding a potentially imminent … Continued

US Dollar Index defied by a short-term range (DXY forecast)  Negatives appear on the Aussie Dollar (AUDUSD forecast) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Another inflationary shock to the upside with the release of the US CPI data on Thursday that saw a print of 7.5% on an annual basis, above consensus estimates and at its highest level for 40 years, since 1982. The surging inflation data from the US (and globally so far in 2022) … Continued

Euro tops out at major resistance to the tick on Thursday (EURUSD forecast) Euro-Pound tops out at its monthly resistance (EURGBP forecast) Positive appears on US Dollar-CAD (USDCAD forecast) US DollarYen reaches upside target (USDJPY forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A more hawkish tone from global central banks with the Fed shifting more hawkish through January, on Thursday we saw the Bank of England and European Central Bank both signal a more hawkish tone. The Bank of England delivered a 25bp interest rate hike as anticipated, but the vote was close for … Continued

US Dollar Index posts major negative (DXY forecast) Euro signals major positive (EURUSD forecast) Uptrend over on Pound (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie posts fresh negative (AUDUSD forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments We got the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, statement and press conference on Wednesday and although markets moved initially to a “risk on” theme after the statement, the press conference saw a “risk off” shift, as, markets interpreted comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell as opening the door … Continued

US Dollar breaks up (DXY forecast) Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) Aussie breaks final major support Kiwi accelerates lower

A  quiet week sees Pound, Aussie and Kiwi retreat (GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD forecasts)  The US Dollar Index reaches first upside target (DXY  forecast)  A major positive appears on EuroPound (EURGBP forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Ongoing concerns of global inflationary pressures have seen an erratic start to the year for global markets, seen again last week. The US CPI data for December showed a 7% rise over a year, the highest inflation rate since 1982! Although this was priced in, it continues to fuel inflationary and higher … Continued

US Dollar Index hits major support and posts positive (DXY forecast) Pound uptrend over (GBPUSD forecast) Negatives appear on Aussie and Kiwi (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) Dollar-CAD reverses (USDCAD forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments 2022 kicked off with a continuation of the latter 2021 theme of rising concerns of global inflationary pressures. This saw a rise in not just US bond yields, but in global bond yields, particularly in the major, economic centres. This higher yield theme was reinforced by the release of the Minutes from … Continued

Negative on US Dollar Index needs conformation  Pound holds monthly support Negatives on Aussie and Kiwi Uptrend on US Dollar-Yen ends

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Concerns that the Omicron strain of COVID-19 could contribute to supply chain disruptions and weigh on global economic growth have resurfaced over the past week. This has been driven by global medical institutions warnings of the more contagious aspect of Omicron the surging numbers of cases in many countries (for example the … Continued

WTI and Brent Includes an educational piece on how to use spreads to qualify futures

Major positive on US Dollar Index (DXY forecast) And a negative on Euro (EURUSD forecast) Both need to be confirmed

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Concerns that the Omicron strain of COVID-19 could contribute to supply chain disruptions and weigh on global economic growth have decreased over the past week. This has been due to positive sounding from vaccine providers and medical institutions regarding the efficacy of vaccines and that the variant could be less severe than … Continued

Aussie hits major final support and rallies strongly (AUDUSD forecast)  Pound posts positive (EURUSD forecast)  Euro-Pound reaches upside target (EURGBP forecast) 

Aussie Dollar reaches major downside target (AUDUSD forecast) Kiwi breaks down  (NZDUSD forecast) Support rises on the Dollar Index  (DXY forecast) Cable sits just above final weekly based support  (GBPUSD forecast)

US Dollar Index posts major negative (DXY forecast) Euro-Dollar a positive (EURUSD forecast) USD-JPY breaks down (USDJPY forecast) Aussie Dollar approaches major support (AUDUSD forecast)