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Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week This will be the last MacroWatch report for 2022. Happy holidays to you all, Merry Christmas and wishing you a great trading and investing year for 2023! Date Key Macroeconomic Events 19/12/22 German IFO Survey 20/12/22 RBA Meeting Minutes, PBoC interest rate decision; BoJ interest … Continued
All too often we think of “the shipping industry” without thinking it through properly – it’s actually a series of different industries. Precisely because it is that series different parts of shipping can be at entirely different points in the cycle. For example, Moller Maersk (NASDAQ: MAERSKA) (LON: 0O77) did very well out of the … Continued
The New Year is just around the corner and so it is quite an appropriate time to take stock and consider what trends may shape our investment outlook heading into 2023. One cannot say that COVID-19 and/or its variants has fully been vanquished. Coupled with the risk of a larger scale war in Europe, a … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 12/12/22 UK GDP, Industrial and Manufacturing Production 13/12/22 UK Employment; German CPI; German and EU ZEW Survey; US CPI 14/12/22 Japan Tankan report; UK inflation report (including CPI); FOMC Meeting, interest rate decision and press conference 15/12/22 Australia Employment; China Industrial … Continued
We all know that the world is using much more lithium – all those Teslas, Rivians and other EV s are just packed with it. Demand is soaring so those producing now are coining cash – like Sigma Lithium (CVE: SGML) soon will be. The only really world class deposit that’s about to come on … Continued
Sino-US tensions, macroeconomic factors, shifting politics, increased competition, and Tesla’s pace of innovation all contribute to an increasingly complex investment case. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares are the long-term investor’s marmite. The EV stock’s market cap rose to more than $1 trillion last year with an all-time-high share price of $410 on a post-split basis by … Continued
By definition the price of a share on the market is the right price for that share on the market. That’s just what market price means – that’s the price. Which means that the short sellers in Home REIT (LON: HOME) are correct when they say it was overvalued at 120p, overvalued at 80p and … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 05/12/22 Global Services and Composite PMI data from S&P Global and US ISM Service PMI; EU Retail Sales 06/12/22 RBA interest rate decision 07/12/22 Australian GDP; EU GDP; BoC interest rate decision 08/12/22 Japan GDP 09/12/22 US PPI; Michigan Consumer Sentiment … Continued
As the coldest days of the Northern Hemisphere winter arrive one can expect energy stocks to receive fresh impetus as global investors seek positions that will derive economic benefit from expected increase in prices and the shortages expected. In September, as autumn leaves were starting to fall, 66% of the respondents to a survey conducted … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 28/11/22 Australian Retail Sales 29/11/22 German CPI; Canadian GDP 30/11/22 Australian CPI; German Employment report; EU CPI; ADP Employment change; US GDP and PCE; Fed Chairman Powell speaks 01/12/22 German Retail Sales; global PMI data from S&P Global and US ISM … Continued
The idea that these stocks are not sensitive to higher interest rates, while these over here are, is true. But that does depend more than a little bit on the weight we put on that word “sensitive”. For at some level of movement of interest rates all stocks will change in price. Other levels of … Continued
One answer to that headline question – UK Energy prices, what’s up? – is that UK energy prices are up, that’s what. But that’s not a grandly illuminative statement as most of us have seen our own bills where this is true. And, of course, what most of us want to know is what happens … Continued
Selling pressure and elevated volatility have been crucial factors that investors have had to endure throughout a bruising year for financial markets in 2022. Anyone that has not been long of the US Dollar or has been unable to short the markets will likely be nursing some fairly hefty losses to their investing account. However, … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments UK inflation accelerated more than anticipated in October to hit a 41-year high of 11.1%, significantly above the 10.1% print in September. Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 21/11/22 PBoC interest rate decision 22/11/22 Canada Retail Sales 23/11/22 RBNZ interest rate decision; global Flash PMI from S&P … Continued
Despite its performance, gold will always have a following amongst the investment community. The price has been falling for much of 2022. However, as the disclaimers warn us, prices can go up as well as down. Could this all be about to turn around again? We look at the key factors driving the gold price. … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 14/11/22 Nothing of note 15/11/22 RBA Minutes; China Retail Sales; UK Employment; EU GDP; German ZEW Survey; US PPI 16/11/22 UK inflation report (including CPI); US Retail Sales; Canada CPI 17/11/22 Australia Employment; EU CPI 18/11/22 UK Retail Sales
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 07/11/22 China trade data 08/11/22 US midterm elections; EU Retail Sales 09/11/22 China CPI 10/11/22 US CPI 11/11/22 UK GDP; German CPI; US Veterans Day, Bond markets closed
This latest bear-market bounce was predicated on good seasonality, the hopes for a typical mid-term election boost, and the rumors of a Fed pivot. Wall Street always finds a narrative for rallies in a bear market. But the negative economic and liquidity cycles remain unchanged: The Fed is hiking rates into a recession. Powell may … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US third-quarter earnings results are largely meeting or beating expectations. About a fifth of S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 results, and approximately 73% have exceeded forecasts. Investor sentiment has been very negative, possibly assisting the market rebound, the Bank of America Fund Managers monthly survey showed investors were holding the most … Continued
Yen retraces to break point (USDJPY forecast) Aussie breaks up (AUDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US core consumer price index (CPI) inflation hit at four-decade high, at 6.6% year-over-year, higher than consensus. Earnings season began, with US financials leading the way, overall posting above expectations. In the UK, the U-turns continue on the much-criticised mini budget, with the chancellor of the exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng a political casualty, … Continued
Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast) Aussie breaks down (AUDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments On the data front, Monday saw the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI activity data, which was below expectations, and also showed falling price pressures (fuelling a risk on theme to start the week, month and quarter). Further easing inflation fears and adding to the risk on tone, the US job … Continued
Pound fails at significant resistance barrier (GBPUSD forecast) Yen posts major buy signal (USDJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The UK mini-budget on Friday 23rd September that saw tax-cuts, the cancellation of national insurance and corporation tax increases, supply-side reforms, plus a GBP 60 billion energy support package had serious impacts on global financial markets last week. The Pound plunged across the Forex board, which saw Cable, GBPUSD, hit an all-time-low, … Continued
Euro-Pound hits upside target (EURGBP forecast) Cable rebound still caped by resistance (GBPUSD forecast) Minor supports form for commodity currencies, but still vulnerable (AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The key focus last week was the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, statement and press conference on Wednesday. This brought an anticipated 75bp rate hike, but also a more hawkish tone than markets had anticipated, with rates possibly now moving to a higher peak in 2023 up to 4.50% and … Continued
US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast) Euro & Pound break down (EURUSD & GBPUSD forecasts) Dollar-Yen posts negative (USDJPY forecast) Euro-Pound and Dollar-CAD continue uptrends (EURGBP & USDCAD forecasts)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The dominant event last week was the far higher than expected release for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. Headline CPI rose 8.3% YoY ended August against expectations of an 8.1% rise. Core inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) leapt to its highest level since March at 6.3%, higher … Continued
Euro-Pound breaks to the upside (EURGBP forecast) Cable teeters over the edge (GBPUSD forecast) US Dollar-CAD breaks higher (USDCAD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Easing inflation fears seemed to be at work last week, possibly assisted by a midweek decline in oil prices to multi-month lows. Plus, the Fed’s “Beige Book” indicated that price increases were moderating in 9 of its 12 districts. Fed speakers Brainard and Mester also delivered comments that seemed to be more … Continued
Pound holds critical support (GBPUSD forecast) US Dollar Index retreats and is back in sideways (DXY forecast) EuroYen reaches major upside target (EURJPY forecast)
US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast) US Dollar-Yen at multi-year high (USDJPY forecast) Pound is extremely vulnerable (GBPUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Further hawkish messages from Federal Reserve officials last week have reinforced the tone evident since the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell’s 26th August Jackson Hole speech. Friday’s US Employment report saw 315K jobs added, down from the revised 526K number for July, but still a solid report. Global financial market developments The major … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Markets had interpreted Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference after the July 26-27 policy meeting as a dovish “pivot”. Last week several Fed officials pushed back against this dovish market narrative and indicated that the central bank is still steadfast in raising rates until inflation is under control House Speaker Nancy … Continued
Positive appears on Dollar-Yen (USDJPY forecast) US Dollar and Euro stuck in sideways (EURUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased rates on Wednesday by 0.75%, taking the benchmark Fed Funds rate to about 2.5% Powell highlighted a Fed Funds range of 3.0%-3.5% by year end, implying about 50-100 basis points of more tightening over the three meetings for the balance of this year, … Continued
EURUSD resistance challenges (EURUSD forecast) Yen turns strong (USDJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The Monthly Fund Manager Survey from Bank of America showed that funds’ cash holdings are at their highest levels since 9/11, and equity exposure at the lowest levels since the 2007–2009 global financial crisis and recession. This can be viewed as a contrary indicator, meaning that there is plenty of cash to … Continued
US Dollar Index sets back (DXY forecast) US DollarYen false break out higher (USDJPY forecast) Major support lies below on EuroYen (EURJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The big data print came from US CPI on Wednesday with the headline number moving to 9.1% YoY, up from the 8.6% print in May and higher than consensus. There is now a growing anticipation from short-term interest rate markets that the Fed could raise rates by 1.00% at their meeting on … Continued
US Dollar Index hits major target (DXY forecast) Euro also reaches major level (EURUSD forecast) US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday reinforced recent hawkish comments from Fed members. S&P Global Services and Composite PMI, plus US ISM Services PMI came in above forecast for the US and were also broadly better than expected globally and notably for the UK and across Europe, although hitting very low levels. … Continued
US Dollar Index Extends Bull Trend (DXY forecast) Euro Continues its Bear Trend (EURUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2022, from Sintra, Portugal saw the world’s major central bankers reaffirm their commitment to fighting inflation. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data was mixed last week, with some of the European data beating expectations, whilst the US PMI data from S&P Global just … Continued
The US Dollar Index Approaches Multi-Year Peak (DXY forecast) Aussie & Kiwi Dollars Break Down ( AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts ) Euro Vulnerable Too (EURUSD forecast) Pound Creates Major Support (GBPUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Moderating inflation pressures and falling growth data helped global stock indices secures gains and technical bases last week. Global S&P Flash PMI on Thursday were not only lower than for May, but also below expectations in many instances, with the US services data hitting its lowest level since January. In addition, long … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Central Banks were front and center last week, with the Swiss National Bank (SNB), US Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) all in play. First, the ECB held an ad hoc, emergency meeting on Wednesday to deal with surging bond yields for … Continued
US Dollar-Yen holds key support Dollar-CAD breaks up
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) pivoted to a more hawkish stance on Thursday, signaling a rate hike in July and maybe more aggressive rate hikes than anticipated thereafter. In addition, they announced the end to their Quantative Easing (QE) program, the Asset Purchase Program (APP) Friday’s US CPI data showed … Continued
US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast) Euro and Pound have no support (EURUSD and GBPUSD forecasts) US Dollar-CAD breaks up (USDCAD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The EU agreed on a partial ban on Russian oil. OPEC+ agreed on bigger oil-output hikes for July and August on Thursday, but still disappointed the oil market, which rebounded strongly, having previously sold off in anticipation of more aggressive hikes. EU inflation hit a new record high at 8.1%. Despite markets … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Selling exhaustion in the equity markets saw recoveries last week, and a cross market shift to a “risk on” theme. This was helped by some positive forecasts from Macy’s, Ralph Lauren and Nordstrom. Fed Minutes pointed to hints of flexibility, helping the more positive outlook. Economic data was mixed, but the PCE … Continued
US Dollar Index continues lower Euro-US Dollar approaching major resistances (EURUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Poor results from US retailers, notably Target, but also Walmart, Lowe’s and Home Depot, highlighted a weakened US consumer. This stoked fears of a larger slowdown and future recession. This on top of US and global inflation worries, and hawkish Central Banks stoked the stagflation fire. Fed speakers, including Chair Powell have … Continued
False breakout higher on US Dollar Index leaves major resistance (DXY forecast) But Euro-US Dollar also has major resistance zone above (EURUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US CPI headline data year over year rose 8.3%, falling from March’s pace but not as much as expected, with consensus around 8.1%. Jerome Powell again stated that a hike of 0.75% was not something being actively considered, but was still a possibility. Possible easing of pandemic lockdowns in Shanghai, China brought … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A 0.5% hike by the Fed as expected, but Jerome Powell stated that a hike of 0.75% was “not something we are actively considering.” Stock indices initially rallied strongly on this information Wednesday, then reversed these gains and more on Thursday and Friday. Friday’s US Jobs reports saw 428K jobs added in … Continued
US Dollar Index still cannot break up (DXY forecast) Euro fails at its breakdown point (EURUSD forecast) Euro-Pound breaks up (EURGBP forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Disappointing earnings results from the tech sector last week, including Alphabet and Amazon, and concerning forward guidance from Apple eclipsed solid Meta numbers. The US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index YOY data, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge posted its first deceleration in over a year, whilst the YOY headline … Continued
Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) But US Dollar Index stops at a major upside resistance (DXY forecast) Kiwi breaks final support (NZDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments More hawkish comments from various Fed policymakers, notably Bullard and Fed Chair Powell indicated even more aggressive interest rate hikes in 2022 and also in the near future, sending bond and stock markets lower in the US and globally. European Central Bank (ECB) hawks and doves have called for earlier and more … Continued
Pound breaks down Aussie and Kiwi collapse Dollar-CAD breaks higher
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US headline CPI data leapt by 1.2% in March, with the year-over-year rise at 8.5%, above consensus expectations to a four-decade high. More hawkish comments from Charles Evans of the Fed (historically a dove) regarding accelerated rate hikes echoed the comments the prior week from another dove, Lael Brainard. The European Central … Continued
Euro-Dollar holds key support (EURUSD forecast) Dollar Index also holds support (DXY forecast) US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast) Aussie and Kiwi break down (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Hawkish comments from Lael Brainard of the Fed (usually more of a dove) regarding rate hikes and balance sheet normalization saw Bonds yields surge last Tuesday, with growth/ tech stocks leading the US stock averages lower. This was affirmed by Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting Minutes, which reinforced a more hawkish threat from the … Continued
US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast) But Euro-Dollar does not break down (EURUSD forecast) Blow off tops on Aussie and Kiwi (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have been less dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as a lack of any significant escalation has seen a further shift towards more of a “risk on” theme for stocks since mid-March. There have also been hopes from the Ukraine/ Russia talks and also from reported setbacks suffered … Continued
US Dollar Index holds key support (DXY forecast) US Dollar-Yen reverses lower (USDJPY forecast) Aussie approaches major resistance (AUDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have been less dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as a lack of any significant escalation has seen a further shift towards more of a “risk on” theme for global risky assets (notably stocks) since mid-March. This has also been assisted by hopes from the Ukraine/ Russia talks … Continued
US Dollar-Yen continue its march higher (USDJPY forecast) Aussie approach major resistance (AUDUSD forecast) US Dollar-CAD continues its breakdown (USDCAD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have once more been dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but with a shift towards more of a “risk on” theme through mid-March. This has been driven by hopes from minimally positive signals from the Ukraine/ Russia talks. And, although there have been some upsetting impacts on civilians, … Continued
Reversal on US Dollar Index but key support held (DXY forecast) Pound reaches breakout point (GBPUSD forecast) US Dollar-Yen reaches major upside target (USDJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have again been dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with shifts between “risk on” and “risk off” themes. Further punitive sanctions including the US barring Russian oil imports has increased the threat to global trade and global economic growth. Global commodity prices have again risen aggressively, but also … Continued
Euro Future hits major downside target (EURUSD forecast) Pound breaks down (GBPUSD forecast) US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have again been dominated by developments in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with shifts between “risk off” and “risk on” themes. More punitive sanctions have seen European and U.K. stocks under particular pressure given the likely impact on global trade and the global economy. Global commodity prices have risen … Continued
US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast) Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) Pound hovers above final support (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie and Kiwi both break higher (AUDUSD & NZDUSD forecasts)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The markets were dominated last week with shifts between “risk off” then “risk on” themes with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The “risk off” theme on the initial invasion quickly shifted to “risk on”, as is often seen when conflict is predicted by markets and then finally breaks out, “sell the rumour, … Continued
US Dollar Index fails back lower, but support intact (DXY forecast) Euro rebound to approach resistance (EURUSD forecast) Aussie holds support (AUDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The markets were dominated last week with shifts between “risk on” then “risk off” themes with conflicting reports regarding the potential for conflict starting between Russia and Ukraine. Reports of Russian troops withdrawing saw a “risk on” move earlier in the week, which was dismissed by Western statements regarding a potentially imminent … Continued
US Dollar Index defied by a short-term range (DXY forecast) Negatives appear on the Aussie Dollar (AUDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Another inflationary shock to the upside with the release of the US CPI data on Thursday that saw a print of 7.5% on an annual basis, above consensus estimates and at its highest level for 40 years, since 1982. The surging inflation data from the US (and globally so far in 2022) … Continued
Euro tops out at major resistance to the tick on Thursday (EURUSD forecast) Euro-Pound tops out at its monthly resistance (EURGBP forecast) Positive appears on US Dollar-CAD (USDCAD forecast) US DollarYen reaches upside target (USDJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A more hawkish tone from global central banks with the Fed shifting more hawkish through January, on Thursday we saw the Bank of England and European Central Bank both signal a more hawkish tone. The Bank of England delivered a 25bp interest rate hike as anticipated, but the vote was close for … Continued
US Dollar Index posts major negative (DXY forecast) Euro signals major positive (EURUSD forecast) Uptrend over on Pound (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie posts fresh negative (AUDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments We got the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, statement and press conference on Wednesday and although markets moved initially to a “risk on” theme after the statement, the press conference saw a “risk off” shift, as, markets interpreted comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell as opening the door … Continued
US Dollar breaks up (DXY forecast) Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) Aussie breaks final major support Kiwi accelerates lower
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Increasing worries of global inflationary pressures and fears of even higher interest rates from the major Central Banks have seen a more aggressive shift to a “risk off” phase through mid-January. These concerns have been heightened by the threat of conflict as Russia continues to amass troops on the Ukrainian border. These … Continued
A quiet week sees Pound, Aussie and Kiwi retreat (GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD forecasts) The US Dollar Index reaches first upside target (DXY forecast) A major positive appears on EuroPound (EURGBP forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Ongoing concerns of global inflationary pressures have seen an erratic start to the year for global markets, seen again last week. The US CPI data for December showed a 7% rise over a year, the highest inflation rate since 1982! Although this was priced in, it continues to fuel inflationary and higher … Continued
US Dollar Index hits major support and posts positive (DXY forecast) Pound uptrend over (GBPUSD forecast) Negatives appear on Aussie and Kiwi (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) Dollar-CAD reverses (USDCAD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments 2022 kicked off with a continuation of the latter 2021 theme of rising concerns of global inflationary pressures. This saw a rise in not just US bond yields, but in global bond yields, particularly in the major, economic centres. This higher yield theme was reinforced by the release of the Minutes from … Continued
Negative on US Dollar Index needs conformation Pound holds monthly support Negatives on Aussie and Kiwi Uptrend on US Dollar-Yen ends