Current Market Analysis

The US Dollar Index Approaches Multi-Year Peak (DXY forecast) Aussie & Kiwi Dollars Break Down ( AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts ) Euro Vulnerable Too (EURUSD forecast) Pound Creates Major Support (GBPUSD forecast)

US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast) Euro and Pound have no support (EURUSD and GBPUSD forecasts) US Dollar-CAD breaks up (USDCAD forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The EU agreed on a partial ban on Russian oil. OPEC+ agreed on bigger oil-output hikes for July and August on Thursday, but still disappointed the oil market, which rebounded strongly, having previously sold off in anticipation of more aggressive hikes. EU inflation hit a new record high at 8.1%. Despite markets … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Selling exhaustion in the equity markets saw recoveries last week, and a cross market shift to a “risk on” theme. This was helped by some positive forecasts from Macy’s, Ralph Lauren and Nordstrom. Fed Minutes pointed to hints of flexibility, helping the more positive outlook. Economic data was mixed, but the PCE … Continued

US Dollar Index continues lower Euro-US Dollar approaching major resistances (EURUSD forecast)

False breakout higher on US Dollar Index leaves major resistance (DXY forecast) But Euro-US Dollar also has major resistance zone above (EURUSD forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US CPI headline data year over year rose 8.3%, falling from March’s pace but not as much as expected, with consensus around 8.1%. Jerome Powell again stated that a hike of 0.75% was not something being actively considered, but was still a possibility. Possible easing of pandemic lockdowns in Shanghai, China brought … Continued

US Dollar Index still cannot break up (DXY forecast)  Euro fails at its breakdown point  (EURUSD forecast)  Euro-Pound breaks up  (EURGBP forecast) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Disappointing earnings results from the tech sector last week, including Alphabet and Amazon, and concerning forward guidance from Apple eclipsed solid Meta numbers. The US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index YOY data, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge posted its first deceleration in over a year, whilst the YOY headline … Continued

Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) But US Dollar Index stops at a major upside resistance (DXY forecast) Kiwi breaks final support (NZDUSD forecast)

Pound breaks down Aussie and Kiwi collapse Dollar-CAD breaks higher 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US headline CPI data leapt by 1.2% in March, with the year-over-year rise at 8.5%, above consensus expectations to a four-decade high. More hawkish comments from Charles Evans of the Fed (historically a dove) regarding accelerated rate hikes echoed the comments the prior week from another dove, Lael Brainard. The European Central … Continued

Euro-Dollar holds key support  (EURUSD forecast)  Dollar Index also holds support (DXY forecast)  US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast)  Aussie and Kiwi break down (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecast) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Hawkish comments from Lael Brainard of the Fed (usually more of a dove) regarding rate hikes and balance sheet normalization saw Bonds yields surge last Tuesday, with growth/ tech stocks leading the US stock averages lower. This was affirmed by Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting Minutes, which reinforced a more hawkish threat from the … Continued

US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast)  But Euro-Dollar does not break down (EURUSD forecast)  Blow off tops on Aussie and Kiwi  (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) 

US Dollar Index holds key support (DXY forecast)  US Dollar-Yen reverses lower (USDJPY forecast)  Aussie approaches major resistance (AUDUSD forecast) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have been less dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as a lack of any significant escalation has seen a further shift towards more of a “risk on” theme for global risky assets (notably stocks) since mid-March. This has also been assisted by hopes from the Ukraine/ Russia talks … Continued

US Dollar-Yen continue its march higher (USDJPY forecast)  Aussie approach major resistance  (AUDUSD forecast)  US Dollar-CAD continues its breakdown  (USDCAD forecast) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have once more been dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but with a shift towards more of a “risk on” theme through mid-March. This has been driven by hopes from minimally positive signals from the Ukraine/ Russia talks. And, although there have been some upsetting impacts on civilians, … Continued

Reversal on US Dollar Index but key support held (DXY forecast)  Pound reaches breakout point (GBPUSD forecast)  US Dollar-Yen reaches major upside target (USDJPY forecast)  

Euro Future hits major downside target (EURUSD forecast)  Pound breaks down  (GBPUSD forecast)  US Dollar-Yen breaks up  (USDJPY forecast) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have again been dominated by developments in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with shifts between “risk off” and “risk on” themes. More punitive sanctions have seen European and U.K. stocks under particular pressure given the likely impact on global trade and the global economy. Global commodity prices have risen … Continued

US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast) Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) Pound hovers above final support (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie and Kiwi both break higher (AUDUSD & NZDUSD forecasts)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The markets were dominated last week with shifts between “risk off” then “risk on” themes with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The “risk off” theme on the initial invasion quickly shifted to “risk on”, as is often seen when conflict is predicted by markets and then finally breaks out, “sell the rumour, … Continued

US Dollar Index fails back lower, but support intact (DXY forecast) Euro rebound to approach resistance (EURUSD forecast) Aussie holds support (AUDUSD forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The markets were dominated last week with shifts between “risk on” then “risk off” themes with conflicting reports regarding the potential for conflict starting between Russia and Ukraine. Reports of Russian troops withdrawing saw a “risk on” move earlier in the week, which was dismissed by Western statements regarding a potentially imminent … Continued

US Dollar Index defied by a short-term range (DXY forecast)  Negatives appear on the Aussie Dollar (AUDUSD forecast) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Another inflationary shock to the upside with the release of the US CPI data on Thursday that saw a print of 7.5% on an annual basis, above consensus estimates and at its highest level for 40 years, since 1982. The surging inflation data from the US (and globally so far in 2022) … Continued

Euro tops out at major resistance to the tick on Thursday (EURUSD forecast) Euro-Pound tops out at its monthly resistance (EURGBP forecast) Positive appears on US Dollar-CAD (USDCAD forecast) US DollarYen reaches upside target (USDJPY forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A more hawkish tone from global central banks with the Fed shifting more hawkish through January, on Thursday we saw the Bank of England and European Central Bank both signal a more hawkish tone. The Bank of England delivered a 25bp interest rate hike as anticipated, but the vote was close for … Continued

US Dollar Index posts major negative (DXY forecast) Euro signals major positive (EURUSD forecast) Uptrend over on Pound (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie posts fresh negative (AUDUSD forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments We got the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, statement and press conference on Wednesday and although markets moved initially to a “risk on” theme after the statement, the press conference saw a “risk off” shift, as, markets interpreted comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell as opening the door … Continued

US Dollar breaks up (DXY forecast) Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) Aussie breaks final major support Kiwi accelerates lower

A  quiet week sees Pound, Aussie and Kiwi retreat (GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD forecasts)  The US Dollar Index reaches first upside target (DXY  forecast)  A major positive appears on EuroPound (EURGBP forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Ongoing concerns of global inflationary pressures have seen an erratic start to the year for global markets, seen again last week. The US CPI data for December showed a 7% rise over a year, the highest inflation rate since 1982! Although this was priced in, it continues to fuel inflationary and higher … Continued

US Dollar Index hits major support and posts positive (DXY forecast) Pound uptrend over (GBPUSD forecast) Negatives appear on Aussie and Kiwi (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) Dollar-CAD reverses (USDCAD forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments 2022 kicked off with a continuation of the latter 2021 theme of rising concerns of global inflationary pressures. This saw a rise in not just US bond yields, but in global bond yields, particularly in the major, economic centres. This higher yield theme was reinforced by the release of the Minutes from … Continued

Negative on US Dollar Index needs conformation  Pound holds monthly support Negatives on Aussie and Kiwi Uptrend on US Dollar-Yen ends

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Concerns that the Omicron strain of COVID-19 could contribute to supply chain disruptions and weigh on global economic growth have resurfaced over the past week. This has been driven by global medical institutions warnings of the more contagious aspect of Omicron the surging numbers of cases in many countries (for example the … Continued

WTI and Brent Includes an educational piece on how to use spreads to qualify futures

Major positive on US Dollar Index (DXY forecast) And a negative on Euro (EURUSD forecast) Both need to be confirmed

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Concerns that the Omicron strain of COVID-19 could contribute to supply chain disruptions and weigh on global economic growth have decreased over the past week. This has been due to positive sounding from vaccine providers and medical institutions regarding the efficacy of vaccines and that the variant could be less severe than … Continued

Aussie hits major final support and rallies strongly (AUDUSD forecast)  Pound posts positive (EURUSD forecast)  Euro-Pound reaches upside target (EURGBP forecast) 

Aussie Dollar reaches major downside target (AUDUSD forecast) Kiwi breaks down  (NZDUSD forecast) Support rises on the Dollar Index  (DXY forecast) Cable sits just above final weekly based support  (GBPUSD forecast)

US Dollar Index posts major negative (DXY forecast) Euro-Dollar a positive (EURUSD forecast) USD-JPY breaks down (USDJPY forecast) Aussie Dollar approaches major support (AUDUSD forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout event last week was the US CPI data on Wednesday, which came in much higher than expected at 6.2% year-over-year, its highest level since 1990. This fuelled ongoing, underlying inflation concerns, seeing global stock indices setback (then bounce), whilst global bonds pushed to higher yields. Tesla saw a steep decline … Continued

US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast)  Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast)  Partial profits in order on the Aussie  (AUDUSD forecast) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) met on Wednesday and as expected announced the start of tapering their monthly bond purchases by USD 15 billion later in November and December. However, the FOMC statement again highlighted an expectation for inflation to moderate and signalled no rush to tighten monetary policy. Markets … Continued

US Dollar Index stats at major resistance  (DXY forecast)  Pound threatens to breakdown (GBPUSD forecast)  Major bear trap lies below on Euro-US Dollar (EURUSD forecast) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The busiest week of the US earnings season saw mixed earnings from Big Tech, with positives from Facebook, Microsoft and Google, and a positive announcement for Tesla, but significant misses from Apple, and Amazon. Further progress was seen on Biden’s proposed social infrastructure bill Despite losses after the Apple and Amazon releases, … Continued

Major positive on the US Dollar Index, but needs confirmation (DXY forecast)  Negative on Euro-US Dollar (again, needing confirmation, EURUSD forecast) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Earnings season continued in the US last week, with positive earnings surprises across sectors, reinforcing solid results from the financial sector the prior week. But Snapchat parent Snap did disappoint on Friday, dragging the tech sector and Nasdaq lower to end the week. Fiscal stimulus hopes also helped the “risk on” theme … Continued

Negatives appear on Cable (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie and Kiwi also post negatives  (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) US Dollar-Yen uptrend ends  (USDJPY forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Although the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday did indicate that bond purchase tapering is likely to begin before the end of 2021, the minutes also revealed that Fed officials are currently looking to keep interest rates at or near zero for the next couple of years. Data has suggested that both supply … Continued

US Dollar Index remains trapped (DXY forecast) Euro-Dollar posts rare positive pattern (EURUSD forecast) US Dollar-Yen accelerates up (USDJPY forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Positive soundings on the US debt ceiling talks have helped riskier assets (such as stocks/ equities) in early October. The “risk off” theme that struck global financial markets in September has started to reverse back to a “risk on” theme, despite the extension to higher yields across global bond markets (led by … Continued

US Dollar Index goes sideways (DXY forecast) Euro-Dollar has major support below (EURUSD forecast) US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast) Positive appears on Euro-Pound ahead of major support (EURGBP forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The “risk off” theme that had struck global financial markets earlier in September resumed into month-end as inflation concerns returned, alongside higher yield pressures. Global stock indices reversed previous recovery rebounds, looking technically vulnerable. Debt ceiling and stimulus uncertainty are also weighing on riskier assets. Although the federal government passed a short-term … Continued

The US Dollar Index stalled in a major resistance zone and posts negative meaning profits taken on long positions.  US Dollar-Yen posts false breakout up and builds reversal

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The “risk off” mode that has gripped global financial markets in September due to growth and inflation concerns was intensified early last week with Evergrande contagion worries. However, these contagions fears have eased through the week, as have the growth and inflation worries, which have seen global stock indices post robust recovery … Continued

Aussie holds support  (AUDUSD forecast) A negative on USD-CAD  (USDCAD forecast) A major “Bear Trap” lies below on the Euro-Dollar (EURUSD forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Ongoing growth and inflation concerns have left global financial markets in “risk off” mode, and still vulnerable to further erratic, “risk off” moves. Growth concerns have been sparked by three main factors: ongoing supply chain worries fuelling inflation fears Inflation worries putting the spotlight on Central Banks and in particular the Fed … Continued

US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast)  Euro breaks down, but futures has a major support nearby  (EURUSD forecast)  Aussie drifts down  (AUDUSD forecast)  Dollar-CAD breaks up  (USDCAD forecast) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The ongoing global spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant and the concerns regarding the new Mu variant, have impacted on growth expectations. In addition, ongoing supply chain worries have continued to fuel inflation fears and accentuate growth concerns. These factors leave global financial markets vulnerable to erratic, “risk off” moves. On Thursday … Continued

US Dollar send positive signal (DXY forecast) Euro signals negative (EURUSD forecast) Aussie negative statement (AUDUSD forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout economic event last week was the August US Employment report on Friday, which was disappointing, the headline Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data missed expectations, posting at 235K, with 750K expected. Prior monthly gains were revised higher though, whilst the Unemployment Rate fell to a pandemic-era low at 5.2%. Global Purchasing Managers … Continued

Euro stalls ahead of major upside target US Dollar Index major support looms below Kiwi reaches next upside target

Reversals in Aussie and Kiwi (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts)  NZDUSD is still below its breakdown point having signalled a false breakdown 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout economic event last week was the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, but it ended up as a non-event, as Fed Chair Powell did not signal anything different than previously communicated with respect to removing policy accommodation. The chaos, unrest and terrorist activity in Afghanistan has had muted impact on global … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Last week, global financial markets were still digesting the big event of the prior week with the US Federal Reserve signalling a more hawkish tone than the financial markets had anticipated. Fed officials this past week have sought to calm markets and allay fears that they were about to start to tighten … Continued