Current Market Analysis

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 15/05/2023 Eurozone Industrial Production 16/05/2023 Chinese Industrial Production & Retail Sales; UK Unemployment; Eurozone Trade Balance; Eurozone GDP (2nd); German ZEW Economic Sentiment; Canadian Inflation; US Retail Sales & Industrial Production 17/05/2023 Japanese GDP (Q1 prelim) & Industrial Production; Eurozone HICP … Continued

The oil price has been swung around like a rag doll in the past couple of months. The focus on supply factors has been shoved aside as traders have fretted over the outlook for oil demand. Concerns over an impending recession in the US have dominated the narrative. However, this may have become overdone for … Continued

Atlas Lithium (NASDAQ: ATLX) could be one of those rare and truly grand investing opportunities in the junior mining space. Someone does, after all, have to find the motherlode sometimes otherwise where would the very phrase come from? One the other hand it’s possible – as some allege – that Atlas Lithium is an over-hyped … Continued

Equity markets had a strong run higher in March and April. However, moving into May the rallies are looking tired. Macro factors are starting to weigh on sentiment ahead of crucial monetary policy announcements from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Sentiment is threatening to sour and this could mean a period of … Continued

Copper demand will skyrocket this decade. Supply is falling, and inventories are at near-record lows. For the long-term investor, it’s merely a waiting game. In early November 2022, I wrote up an article covering the growing consensus surrounding the emerging copper supply gap. Simply put, copper demand is growing exponentially, and supply is drying up. … Continued

Things do sometimes go wrong, as WANdisco (LON: WAND) and Alphawave (LON: AWE) have just shown – with an able little assist from Altyngold (LON: ALTN). More specifically things sometimes go wrong with the accounting within a company. As is the case with all three of these. However, sometimes – just the sometimes – there’s … Continued

First Quarter GDP increased at only a 1.1% seasonally adjusted annual rate. That was down from 2.6% in Q4 of last year, which was down from 3.2% during Q3. Despite the clear slowdown in economic growth, there still exists a battle between Wall Street’s soft-landing narrative, where inflation comes down in the context of robust … Continued

A near-term correction is building on gold. Since peaking at $2039 in mid-April, the gold price has been pulled lower. It is currently trading around three-week lows, with cash gold trading decisively back below the psychological $2000 level.   However, this looks to be a near-term move that is likely to be the source of … Continued

Atlantic Lithium (LON: ALL) is one of those shares that justify the AIM market in London, or the similar parts of the TSE and Vancouver exchanges. There needs to be somewhere that junior (ie, not yet producing) miners can go get the necessary capital. Someone, somewhere, has to pay for the exploration and proving work … Continued

CXApp (NASDAQ: CXAI) was quite the exciting stock last week, jumping from $1.33 to, at one point intraday, $50 or so. It fell off from that, obviously enough. Quite why the massive excitement no one is really quite sure. A recent Spac deal it does something with AI and perhaps that’s enough to get the … Continued

The former Soviet state is toeing a delicate line between Russian politics, Chinese protections, and European energy concerns. Uranium is in many ways like lithium. It’s non-fungible, very reactive, and for many years was unprofitable to mine out of the ground. But with nuclear power becoming much more acceptable as a ‘green energy’ source, and … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 10/04/23 Easter Monday holiday, UK and European markets are closed; Fed’s Williams speaks 11/04/23 China CPI; EU Retail Sales; Fed’s Harker speaks 12/04/23 Fed’s Kashkari speaks; US CPI; BoC interest rate decision and statement; FOMC Minutes released 13/04/23 Australian Employment report; … Continued

OPEC has played this particular gambit before. It didn’t work then, and it won’t work now. Brent Crude — the North Sea oil benchmark — traded for an average of circa $70 per barrel in 2021, $42 in 2020 (when oil went negative for the first time ever), and $64 in 2019. BP CEO Bernard … Continued

Inflation, Sino-Western tensions, falling ore quality and excess plant capacity are all creating a flourishing mergers and acquisitions environment. As an investor in multiple LSE-listed mining small caps, and an analyst of the larger titans, I have a fairly wide view of the mining industry. And the key thing I keep coming back to is … Continued

Explaining the value interplay between Gold, Bitcoin, the US Dollar, and defensive stocks in simple layman’s terms. When monetary policy is loose, interest rates are low, and growth is cheap. In this boom phase of the economic cycle investors often pile their capital into tech stocks, which thrive on the waters of cheap debt. However, … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 20/03/23 Japan Vernal Equinox Day markets closed; no data of note 21/03/23 RBA Meeting Minutes; German ZEW Survey; Canadian CPI 22/03/23 UK CPI; US FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Projections and Press Conference 23/03/23 SNB and BoE Interest Rate Decisions 24/03/23 UK … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 13/03/23 US switched to Daylight Saving Time on Sunday 12/03 14/03/23 UK Employment report; US CPI   15/03/23 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; China Retails Sales; EU industrial Production; US Retail Sales  16/03/23 Australian Employment report; ECB Monetary Policy Decision, Statement and … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 06/03/23 EU Retail Sales 07/03/23 RBA interest rate decision; Jerome Powell testimony to Congress 08/03/23 German Retail Sales; EU Employment and GDP; ADP Employment Change; Jerome Powell testimony to Congress; BoC interest rate decision 09/03/23 Japan GDP; China CPI 10/03/23 BoJ … Continued

Government policy has always been designed to support the housing market. Until now, that is. After spending most of 2022 warning that a UK house price correction was on the cards — please read here for some light reading  — it appears that institutions are finally on the case. Lloyds, the UK’s largest mortgage lender, … Continued

We’re just going through the British bank reporting season and everyone’s profits are up. So, therefore British banks must be a good buy, right? Quite possibly, yes, but it’s important to understand that there’s a temporary feature to a part of this profits rise. The interest rate margin only keeps increasing if interest rates keep … Continued

So, this electronic revolution is going to make rare metals soar in price and stay up, right? Those battery metals – cobalt, lithium – and the rare earths for the magnets, they’re stonking to the Moon and no mistake, undoubtedly. Except metals markets don’t in fact work that way. Sure, demand changes, prices change, but … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 20/02/23 US Presidents day holiday, US equity and bond cash markets are closed; PBoC interest rate decision 21/02/23 RBA Meeting Minutes; global S&P Global Flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI); Canada CPI and Retail Sales 22/02/23 German CPI; German IFO Survey; FOMC … Continued

Of course, Lyft (NASDAQ: LYFT) and Uber (NYSE: UBER) has always been separate companies. But for much of their dual existence they’ve just been seen as two aspects of the same economic sector. If ride hailing and ride sharing work, then so will both companies – if they won’t then neither Uber nor Lyft will. … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 13/02/23 Nothing of note 14/02/23 Japan GDP; UK Employment report; EU GDP; US CPI 15/02/23 UK CPI; US Retail Sales 16/02/23 Australian Employment report; US PPI 17/02/23 UK Retail Sales

Genedrive is financially almost out of runway, but its tech makes it a reasonable buyout target. Genedrive (LON: GDR) is a FTSE AIM company out of which many investors have fallen in love. The molecular diagnostics biotech company spiked multiple times through the pandemic-induced meme hysteria, reaching a record 173p per share in May 2020. … Continued

News that the new CEO of Rolls Royce (LON: RR.) called the company a “burning platform” broke on Friday sending the shares down 3% or so. This is a reversal, it’s true, but then RR has near doubled since October. So, what actually is going on here? The doubling, well, that’s simple enough to explain. … Continued

Dax 40 March is forming a sideways consolidation as volatility decreases, which is normal in both a bull & bear trend. We do not know how long this process will take but there is definitely no sell signal at this stage. We held a range of about 250 ticks last week so there are few … Continued

Shares in the 7 key listed companies of the Adani Group have risen some 800% in the past three years. Now they’re falling and falling hard. So, why’s that? The trigger for the fall is the short selling report issued by Hindenburg Research. But there’s something we’ve got to know about short seller reports. They’re … Continued

HARL shares have experienced significant volatility in recent weeks, but a push higher remains on the cards for investors with a healthy risk appetite. Harland & Wolff (LON: HARL) shares are at this point a relatively stressful investment for long term position investors. Not only is the company down by 42% over the past five … Continued

Lithium is, of course, the brave new metal of the green energy revolution. We’ve not got any other material to use for automotive batteries, not of any consequence. The assumption is that lithium demand will rise at least 1000% over the next decade or so. The price has already risen at least that in anticipation … Continued

Gold reached the resistance at 1878/88 with a high for the week exactly here. There is no sell signal yet but obviously today’s direction will be driven by the US CPI number, with 6.4% expected. The levels for today are very clear on the 4 hour chart. Silver in a 1 month erratic sideways trend. … Continued