Current Market Analysis

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 27/02/23 US Durable Goods 28/02/23 Australian Retail Sales; Canada GDP; US Consumer Confidence   01/03/23 Australian GDP; global S&P Global Manufacturing PMI; German Unemployment and CPI; US ISM Manufacturing PMI 02/03/23 EU Unemployment and CPI 03/03/23 Global S&P Global Services and … Continued

Once again, we’ve a politician not quite understanding what he wants to regulate – in this case it’s US sports betting and the associated stocks. So, the likes of Flutter (LON: FLTR), DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM). All have substantial US sports betting businesses. All will benefit – yes, benefit – from … Continued

Inflation is supposedly on its way to falling gently back to 2% like a fluffy snowflake while the US economy roars ahead. Or at least that is what the deep state of Wall Street needs you to think. However, the US economy is in the eye of the hurricane right now; and the other outer … Continued

Most analysts expect that the UK base rate will settle below 5%. A rise to double-digits seems unlikely — but another one-off event cannot be ruled out. In October 2022, I made the case that a 10% base rate was coming for the UK. At the time, the country was reeling from the devastating effects … Continued

Darktrace (LON: DARK) found itself the target of a shortselling report from Quintessential Capital Management and the shares dropped 20% and more in a day – to largely regain their losses it is true. The problem here is that whether the allegations about the accounting are true or not doesn’t really matter. Well, of course … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 06/02/23 EU Retail Sales 07/02/23 RBA interest rate decision; Fed’s Powell speaks 08/02/23 Nothing of note 09/02/23 German CPI  10/02/23 China CPI, UK GDP, Manufacturing and Industrial Production; Canada Employment report; US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

As our example we’re just going to take the Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares (NYSEARCA: LABU) as our example. This isn’t the only leveraged ETF out there by a long way it’s just an example. There is the Bear version of the same Direxion ETF (NYSEARCA: LABD) for example, they near always come … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 23/01/23 BoJ Meeting Minutes; EU Consumer Confidence 24/01/23 Flash PMI global drive from S&P Global  25/01/23 Australian CPI; German IFO; BoC interest rate decision  26/01/23 US GDP, PCE, Durable and Capital Goods Orders 27/01/23 US PCE

One of the little sadness’s of life is that no stock picking method – no investing method – works all the time. If it did then everyone would do it and all the potential profits would be gone. However, what is true is that certain investment picking methods work some of the time. The trick … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 16/01/23 US Martin Luther King Holiday, equity and bonds cash markets are closed 17/01/23 China GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales, UK Employment report, German CPI, German ZEW Survey, Canada CPI 18/01/23 UK inflation report (CPI); EU CPI; US PPI and … Continued

Say that we want to speculate upon BONK – and speculate it would be of course – then we face something of a problem. For actual crypto exchanges seem to be falling over with depressing regularity. This then means that speculation on DOGE, or Shiba Inu (SHIB) – all things that might be connected – … Continued

Dropping foul news into the markets just before a long weekend offers the chance for people to have forgotten about it by the time the markets reopen. Or, perhaps, that’s often the hope, as with Harland & Wolff’s (LON: HARL) announcement that revenue for the year just gone – to Dec 31, 2022 – will … Continued

We might think that we have to be not cynical, uncynical, to believe that just as Santa brings presents to all the little kiddies so the Santa Rally also provides an annual profit-making opportunity for us traders. Yet the actual explanation of why there is such a rally is profoundly cynical, it incorporates a possibly … Continued

There can be no denying that 2022 has proven to be a challenging year for all investors. For example, the FTSE All World Index has a 1-Year change of -17.26%. Similarly, the S&P Global 100 has a 1-Year change of -13.45%. (As at 10:30 on Friday, December 16th, 2022). A similar tale of poor performance … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week This will be the last MacroWatch report for 2022. Happy holidays to you all, Merry Christmas and wishing you a great trading and investing year for 2023! Date Key Macroeconomic Events 19/12/22 German IFO Survey 20/12/22 RBA Meeting Minutes, PBoC interest rate decision; BoJ interest … Continued

All too often we think of “the shipping industry” without thinking it through properly – it’s actually a series of different industries. Precisely because it is that series different parts of shipping can be at entirely different points in the cycle. For example, Moller Maersk (NASDAQ: MAERSKA)  (LON: 0O77) did very well out of the … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 12/12/22 UK GDP, Industrial and Manufacturing Production  13/12/22 UK Employment; German CPI; German and EU ZEW Survey; US CPI 14/12/22 Japan Tankan report; UK inflation report (including CPI); FOMC Meeting, interest rate decision and press conference 15/12/22 Australia Employment; China Industrial … Continued

We all know that the world is using much more lithium – all those Teslas, Rivians and other EV s are just packed with it. Demand is soaring so those producing now are coining cash – like Sigma Lithium (CVE: SGML) soon will be. The only really world class deposit that’s about to come on … Continued

Sino-US tensions, macroeconomic factors, shifting politics, increased competition, and Tesla’s pace of innovation all contribute to an increasingly complex investment case. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares are the long-term investor’s marmite. The EV stock’s market cap rose to more than $1 trillion last year with an all-time-high share price of $410 on a post-split basis by … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 05/12/22 Global Services and Composite PMI data from S&P Global and US ISM Service PMI; EU Retail Sales 06/12/22 RBA interest rate decision 07/12/22 Australian GDP; EU GDP; BoC interest rate decision 08/12/22 Japan GDP 09/12/22 US PPI; Michigan Consumer Sentiment … Continued

As the coldest days of the Northern Hemisphere winter arrive one can expect energy stocks to receive fresh impetus as global investors seek positions that will derive economic benefit from expected increase in prices and the shortages expected. In September, as autumn leaves were starting to fall, 66% of the respondents to a survey conducted … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 28/11/22 Australian Retail Sales 29/11/22 German CPI; Canadian GDP 30/11/22 Australian CPI; German Employment report; EU CPI; ADP Employment change; US GDP and PCE; Fed Chairman Powell speaks 01/12/22 German Retail Sales; global PMI data from S&P Global and US ISM … Continued

One answer to that headline question – UK Energy prices, what’s up?  – is that UK energy prices are up, that’s what. But that’s not a grandly illuminative statement as most of us have seen our own bills where this is true. And, of course, what most of us want to know is what happens … Continued

Selling pressure and elevated volatility have been crucial factors that investors have had to endure throughout a bruising year for financial markets in 2022. Anyone that has not been long of the US Dollar or has been unable to short the markets will likely be nursing some fairly hefty losses to their investing account. However, … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments UK inflation accelerated more than anticipated in October to hit a 41-year high of 11.1%, significantly above the 10.1% print in September. Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 21/11/22 PBoC interest rate decision 22/11/22 Canada Retail Sales 23/11/22 RBNZ interest rate decision; global Flash PMI from S&P … Continued

Despite its performance, gold will always have a following amongst the investment community. The price has been falling for much of 2022. However, as the disclaimers warn us, prices can go up as well as down. Could this all be about to turn around again? We look at the key factors driving the gold price. … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday reinforced recent hawkish comments from Fed members. S&P Global Services and Composite PMI, plus US ISM Services PMI came in above forecast for the US and were also broadly better than expected globally and notably for the UK and across Europe, although hitting very low levels. … Continued