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Emini S&P March – It’s make or break for Emini S&P today as we test: The 1 year 38.2% Fibonacci resistance at 4000 The 5 month 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at 4012. The 1 year downward sloping trend line at 4020. In overbought conditions. Even on the short term charts, taking my Fibonacci levels from the … Continued
Gold broke through resistance at 1878/88 & has cleared 1895 for a buy signal targeting 1905 & 1915, perhaps as far as 1925. A nice move last week at the end of the week as we beat 1895 reaching 1921/22 on Friday. Silver in a consolidation after 3 months of gains as we wait for … Continued
Yen retraces to break point (USDJPY forecast) Aussie breaks up (AUDUSD forecast)
Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast) Aussie breaks down (AUDUSD forecast)
Pound fails at significant resistance barrier (GBPUSD forecast) Yen posts major buy signal (USDJPY forecast)
Euro-Pound hits upside target (EURGBP forecast) Cable rebound still caped by resistance (GBPUSD forecast) Minor supports form for commodity currencies, but still vulnerable (AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts)
US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast) Euro & Pound break down (EURUSD & GBPUSD forecasts) Dollar-Yen posts negative (USDJPY forecast) Euro-Pound and Dollar-CAD continue uptrends (EURGBP & USDCAD forecasts)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The dominant event last week was the far higher than expected release for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. Headline CPI rose 8.3% YoY ended August against expectations of an 8.1% rise. Core inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) leapt to its highest level since March at 6.3%, higher … Continued
Euro-Pound breaks to the upside (EURGBP forecast) Cable teeters over the edge (GBPUSD forecast) US Dollar-CAD breaks higher (USDCAD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Easing inflation fears seemed to be at work last week, possibly assisted by a midweek decline in oil prices to multi-month lows. Plus, the Fed’s “Beige Book” indicated that price increases were moderating in 9 of its 12 districts. Fed speakers Brainard and Mester also delivered comments that seemed to be more … Continued
Pound holds critical support (GBPUSD forecast) US Dollar Index retreats and is back in sideways (DXY forecast) EuroYen reaches major upside target (EURJPY forecast)
US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast) US Dollar-Yen at multi-year high (USDJPY forecast) Pound is extremely vulnerable (GBPUSD forecast)
Positive appears on Dollar-Yen (USDJPY forecast) US Dollar and Euro stuck in sideways (EURUSD forecast)
EURUSD resistance challenges (EURUSD forecast) Yen turns strong (USDJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The Monthly Fund Manager Survey from Bank of America showed that funds’ cash holdings are at their highest levels since 9/11, and equity exposure at the lowest levels since the 2007–2009 global financial crisis and recession. This can be viewed as a contrary indicator, meaning that there is plenty of cash to … Continued
US Dollar Index sets back (DXY forecast) US DollarYen false break out higher (USDJPY forecast) Major support lies below on EuroYen (EURJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The big data print came from US CPI on Wednesday with the headline number moving to 9.1% YoY, up from the 8.6% print in May and higher than consensus. There is now a growing anticipation from short-term interest rate markets that the Fed could raise rates by 1.00% at their meeting on … Continued
US Dollar Index hits major target (DXY forecast) Euro also reaches major level (EURUSD forecast) US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast)
US Dollar Index Extends Bull Trend (DXY forecast) Euro Continues its Bear Trend (EURUSD forecast)
The US Dollar Index Approaches Multi-Year Peak (DXY forecast) Aussie & Kiwi Dollars Break Down ( AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts ) Euro Vulnerable Too (EURUSD forecast) Pound Creates Major Support (GBPUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Moderating inflation pressures and falling growth data helped global stock indices secures gains and technical bases last week. Global S&P Flash PMI on Thursday were not only lower than for May, but also below expectations in many instances, with the US services data hitting its lowest level since January. In addition, long … Continued
A very quiet week sees most markets move sideways But the US Dollar Index remains vulnerable (DXY forecast) Forecasts on EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD
US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast) Euro and Pound have no support (EURUSD and GBPUSD forecasts) US Dollar-CAD breaks up (USDCAD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The EU agreed on a partial ban on Russian oil. OPEC+ agreed on bigger oil-output hikes for July and August on Thursday, but still disappointed the oil market, which rebounded strongly, having previously sold off in anticipation of more aggressive hikes. EU inflation hit a new record high at 8.1%. Despite markets … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Selling exhaustion in the equity markets saw recoveries last week, and a cross market shift to a “risk on” theme. This was helped by some positive forecasts from Macy’s, Ralph Lauren and Nordstrom. Fed Minutes pointed to hints of flexibility, helping the more positive outlook. Economic data was mixed, but the PCE … Continued
US Dollar Index continues lower Euro-US Dollar approaching major resistances (EURUSD forecast)
False breakout higher on US Dollar Index leaves major resistance (DXY forecast) But Euro-US Dollar also has major resistance zone above (EURUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US CPI headline data year over year rose 8.3%, falling from March’s pace but not as much as expected, with consensus around 8.1%. Jerome Powell again stated that a hike of 0.75% was not something being actively considered, but was still a possibility. Possible easing of pandemic lockdowns in Shanghai, China brought … Continued
US Dollar Index still cannot break up (DXY forecast) Euro fails at its breakdown point (EURUSD forecast) Euro-Pound breaks up (EURGBP forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Disappointing earnings results from the tech sector last week, including Alphabet and Amazon, and concerning forward guidance from Apple eclipsed solid Meta numbers. The US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index YOY data, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge posted its first deceleration in over a year, whilst the YOY headline … Continued
Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) But US Dollar Index stops at a major upside resistance (DXY forecast) Kiwi breaks final support (NZDUSD forecast)
Pound breaks down Aussie and Kiwi collapse Dollar-CAD breaks higher
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US headline CPI data leapt by 1.2% in March, with the year-over-year rise at 8.5%, above consensus expectations to a four-decade high. More hawkish comments from Charles Evans of the Fed (historically a dove) regarding accelerated rate hikes echoed the comments the prior week from another dove, Lael Brainard. The European Central … Continued
Euro-Dollar holds key support (EURUSD forecast) Dollar Index also holds support (DXY forecast) US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast) Aussie and Kiwi break down (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Hawkish comments from Lael Brainard of the Fed (usually more of a dove) regarding rate hikes and balance sheet normalization saw Bonds yields surge last Tuesday, with growth/ tech stocks leading the US stock averages lower. This was affirmed by Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting Minutes, which reinforced a more hawkish threat from the … Continued
US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast) But Euro-Dollar does not break down (EURUSD forecast) Blow off tops on Aussie and Kiwi (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts)
US Dollar Index holds key support (DXY forecast) US Dollar-Yen reverses lower (USDJPY forecast) Aussie approaches major resistance (AUDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have been less dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as a lack of any significant escalation has seen a further shift towards more of a “risk on” theme for global risky assets (notably stocks) since mid-March. This has also been assisted by hopes from the Ukraine/ Russia talks … Continued
US Dollar-Yen continue its march higher (USDJPY forecast) Aussie approach major resistance (AUDUSD forecast) US Dollar-CAD continues its breakdown (USDCAD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have once more been dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but with a shift towards more of a “risk on” theme through mid-March. This has been driven by hopes from minimally positive signals from the Ukraine/ Russia talks. And, although there have been some upsetting impacts on civilians, … Continued
Reversal on US Dollar Index but key support held (DXY forecast) Pound reaches breakout point (GBPUSD forecast) US Dollar-Yen reaches major upside target (USDJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have again been dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with shifts between “risk on” and “risk off” themes. Further punitive sanctions including the US barring Russian oil imports has increased the threat to global trade and global economic growth. Global commodity prices have again risen aggressively, but also … Continued
Euro Future hits major downside target (EURUSD forecast) Pound breaks down (GBPUSD forecast) US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have again been dominated by developments in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with shifts between “risk off” and “risk on” themes. More punitive sanctions have seen European and U.K. stocks under particular pressure given the likely impact on global trade and the global economy. Global commodity prices have risen … Continued
US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast) Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) Pound hovers above final support (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie and Kiwi both break higher (AUDUSD & NZDUSD forecasts)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The markets were dominated last week with shifts between “risk off” then “risk on” themes with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The “risk off” theme on the initial invasion quickly shifted to “risk on”, as is often seen when conflict is predicted by markets and then finally breaks out, “sell the rumour, … Continued
US Dollar Index fails back lower, but support intact (DXY forecast) Euro rebound to approach resistance (EURUSD forecast) Aussie holds support (AUDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The markets were dominated last week with shifts between “risk on” then “risk off” themes with conflicting reports regarding the potential for conflict starting between Russia and Ukraine. Reports of Russian troops withdrawing saw a “risk on” move earlier in the week, which was dismissed by Western statements regarding a potentially imminent … Continued
US Dollar Index defied by a short-term range (DXY forecast) Negatives appear on the Aussie Dollar (AUDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Another inflationary shock to the upside with the release of the US CPI data on Thursday that saw a print of 7.5% on an annual basis, above consensus estimates and at its highest level for 40 years, since 1982. The surging inflation data from the US (and globally so far in 2022) … Continued
Euro tops out at major resistance to the tick on Thursday (EURUSD forecast) Euro-Pound tops out at its monthly resistance (EURGBP forecast) Positive appears on US Dollar-CAD (USDCAD forecast) US DollarYen reaches upside target (USDJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A more hawkish tone from global central banks with the Fed shifting more hawkish through January, on Thursday we saw the Bank of England and European Central Bank both signal a more hawkish tone. The Bank of England delivered a 25bp interest rate hike as anticipated, but the vote was close for … Continued
US Dollar Index posts major negative (DXY forecast) Euro signals major positive (EURUSD forecast) Uptrend over on Pound (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie posts fresh negative (AUDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments We got the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, statement and press conference on Wednesday and although markets moved initially to a “risk on” theme after the statement, the press conference saw a “risk off” shift, as, markets interpreted comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell as opening the door … Continued
US Dollar breaks up (DXY forecast) Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) Aussie breaks final major support Kiwi accelerates lower
A quiet week sees Pound, Aussie and Kiwi retreat (GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD forecasts) The US Dollar Index reaches first upside target (DXY forecast) A major positive appears on EuroPound (EURGBP forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Ongoing concerns of global inflationary pressures have seen an erratic start to the year for global markets, seen again last week. The US CPI data for December showed a 7% rise over a year, the highest inflation rate since 1982! Although this was priced in, it continues to fuel inflationary and higher … Continued
US Dollar Index hits major support and posts positive (DXY forecast) Pound uptrend over (GBPUSD forecast) Negatives appear on Aussie and Kiwi (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) Dollar-CAD reverses (USDCAD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments 2022 kicked off with a continuation of the latter 2021 theme of rising concerns of global inflationary pressures. This saw a rise in not just US bond yields, but in global bond yields, particularly in the major, economic centres. This higher yield theme was reinforced by the release of the Minutes from … Continued
Negative on US Dollar Index needs conformation Pound holds monthly support Negatives on Aussie and Kiwi Uptrend on US Dollar-Yen ends
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Concerns that the Omicron strain of COVID-19 could contribute to supply chain disruptions and weigh on global economic growth have resurfaced over the past week. This has been driven by global medical institutions warnings of the more contagious aspect of Omicron the surging numbers of cases in many countries (for example the … Continued
WTI and Brent Includes an educational piece on how to use spreads to qualify futures
Major positive on US Dollar Index (DXY forecast) And a negative on Euro (EURUSD forecast) Both need to be confirmed
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Concerns that the Omicron strain of COVID-19 could contribute to supply chain disruptions and weigh on global economic growth have decreased over the past week. This has been due to positive sounding from vaccine providers and medical institutions regarding the efficacy of vaccines and that the variant could be less severe than … Continued
Aussie hits major final support and rallies strongly (AUDUSD forecast) Pound posts positive (EURUSD forecast) Euro-Pound reaches upside target (EURGBP forecast)
Aussie Dollar reaches major downside target (AUDUSD forecast) Kiwi breaks down (NZDUSD forecast) Support rises on the Dollar Index (DXY forecast) Cable sits just above final weekly based support (GBPUSD forecast)
US Dollar Index posts major negative (DXY forecast) Euro-Dollar a positive (EURUSD forecast) USD-JPY breaks down (USDJPY forecast) Aussie Dollar approaches major support (AUDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout event last week was the US CPI data on Wednesday, which came in much higher than expected at 6.2% year-over-year, its highest level since 1990. This fuelled ongoing, underlying inflation concerns, seeing global stock indices setback (then bounce), whilst global bonds pushed to higher yields. Tesla saw a steep decline … Continued
US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast) Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) Partial profits in order on the Aussie (AUDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) met on Wednesday and as expected announced the start of tapering their monthly bond purchases by USD 15 billion later in November and December. However, the FOMC statement again highlighted an expectation for inflation to moderate and signalled no rush to tighten monetary policy. Markets … Continued
US Dollar Index stats at major resistance (DXY forecast) Pound threatens to breakdown (GBPUSD forecast) Major bear trap lies below on Euro-US Dollar (EURUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The busiest week of the US earnings season saw mixed earnings from Big Tech, with positives from Facebook, Microsoft and Google, and a positive announcement for Tesla, but significant misses from Apple, and Amazon. Further progress was seen on Biden’s proposed social infrastructure bill Despite losses after the Apple and Amazon releases, … Continued
Major positive on the US Dollar Index, but needs confirmation (DXY forecast) Negative on Euro-US Dollar (again, needing confirmation, EURUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Earnings season continued in the US last week, with positive earnings surprises across sectors, reinforcing solid results from the financial sector the prior week. But Snapchat parent Snap did disappoint on Friday, dragging the tech sector and Nasdaq lower to end the week. Fiscal stimulus hopes also helped the “risk on” theme … Continued
Negatives appear on Cable (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie and Kiwi also post negatives (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) US Dollar-Yen uptrend ends (USDJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Although the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday did indicate that bond purchase tapering is likely to begin before the end of 2021, the minutes also revealed that Fed officials are currently looking to keep interest rates at or near zero for the next couple of years. Data has suggested that both supply … Continued
US Dollar Index remains trapped (DXY forecast) Euro-Dollar posts rare positive pattern (EURUSD forecast) US Dollar-Yen accelerates up (USDJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Positive soundings on the US debt ceiling talks have helped riskier assets (such as stocks/ equities) in early October. The “risk off” theme that struck global financial markets in September has started to reverse back to a “risk on” theme, despite the extension to higher yields across global bond markets (led by … Continued
US Dollar Index goes sideways (DXY forecast) Euro-Dollar has major support below (EURUSD forecast) US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast) Positive appears on Euro-Pound ahead of major support (EURGBP forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The “risk off” theme that had struck global financial markets earlier in September resumed into month-end as inflation concerns returned, alongside higher yield pressures. Global stock indices reversed previous recovery rebounds, looking technically vulnerable. Debt ceiling and stimulus uncertainty are also weighing on riskier assets. Although the federal government passed a short-term … Continued
The US Dollar Index stalled in a major resistance zone and posts negative meaning profits taken on long positions. US Dollar-Yen posts false breakout up and builds reversal
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The “risk off” mode that has gripped global financial markets in September due to growth and inflation concerns was intensified early last week with Evergrande contagion worries. However, these contagions fears have eased through the week, as have the growth and inflation worries, which have seen global stock indices post robust recovery … Continued
Aussie holds support (AUDUSD forecast) A negative on USD-CAD (USDCAD forecast) A major “Bear Trap” lies below on the Euro-Dollar (EURUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Ongoing growth and inflation concerns have left global financial markets in “risk off” mode, and still vulnerable to further erratic, “risk off” moves. Growth concerns have been sparked by three main factors: ongoing supply chain worries fuelling inflation fears Inflation worries putting the spotlight on Central Banks and in particular the Fed … Continued
US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast) Euro breaks down, but futures has a major support nearby (EURUSD forecast) Aussie drifts down (AUDUSD forecast) Dollar-CAD breaks up (USDCAD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The ongoing global spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant and the concerns regarding the new Mu variant, have impacted on growth expectations. In addition, ongoing supply chain worries have continued to fuel inflation fears and accentuate growth concerns. These factors leave global financial markets vulnerable to erratic, “risk off” moves. On Thursday … Continued
US Dollar send positive signal (DXY forecast) Euro signals negative (EURUSD forecast) Aussie negative statement (AUDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout economic event last week was the August US Employment report on Friday, which was disappointing, the headline Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data missed expectations, posting at 235K, with 750K expected. Prior monthly gains were revised higher though, whilst the Unemployment Rate fell to a pandemic-era low at 5.2%. Global Purchasing Managers … Continued
Euro stalls ahead of major upside target US Dollar Index major support looms below Kiwi reaches next upside target
Reversals in Aussie and Kiwi (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) NZDUSD is still below its breakdown point having signalled a false breakdown
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout economic event last week was the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, but it ended up as a non-event, as Fed Chair Powell did not signal anything different than previously communicated with respect to removing policy accommodation. The chaos, unrest and terrorist activity in Afghanistan has had muted impact on global … Continued