The analysis of markets is a critical part of the trading decisions of any trader or investor. The individual trader or trading group may have a preference for: Macroeconomic Analysis, Microeconomics Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Behavioural Analysis, Quantitative Analysis and Technical Analysis. But whichever approach is employed, it is through this analysis that the trader decides:
In this section we provide daily, real time market views including currency pairs forecasts, primarily through the approach of Technical Analysis, but also by utilising other approaches to market analysis. Many of our analyses also contains a video explaining the analyses. Click here for all video analyses and here for all forex news.
First Quarter GDP increased at only a 1.1% seasonally adjusted annual rate. That was down from 2.6% in Q4 of last year, which was down from 3.2% during Q3. Despite the clear slowdown in economic growth, there still exists a battle between Wall Street’s soft-landing narrative, where inflation comes down in the context of robust … Continued
FAANG stocks are reporting positive earnings so far in Q1 2023. Each holds a useful insight for long-term investing. The FAANG stocks are a long-term investor’s ultimate quandary. All have seen huge growth and market dominance during the decade or so of ultraloose monetary policy; and as interest rates rise and the money supply contracts, … Continued
Last week, I discussed whether the US growth stocks that had driven the rally on Wall Street could keep up the pace. Despite the big tech stocks doing the heavy lifting, there are increasing signs that the Wall Street rally is sagging. Yesterday’s earnings from the tech giants, Microsoft and Alphabet have provided a welcome … Continued
A near-term correction is building on gold. Since peaking at $2039 in mid-April, the gold price has been pulled lower. It is currently trading around three-week lows, with cash gold trading decisively back below the psychological $2000 level. However, this looks to be a near-term move that is likely to be the source of … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 24/04/2023 German IFO Survey 25/04/2023 US Consumer Confidence, US New Homes Sales 26/04/2023 Australian CPI, US Durable Goods 27/04/2023 EU Consumer Confidence, US Advance GDP and PCE 28/04/2023 Bank of Japan interest rate decision and statement, German Unemployment, GDP and HICP … Continued
Equity markets have fluctuated in recent months, but there is a key theme that has developed. There has been a decisive shift in the outlook for US equities since the turn of the year. US growth stocks have decisively outperformed value stocks. This has become the key story of US equities so far in 2023. … Continued
Atlantic Lithium (LON: ALL) is one of those shares that justify the AIM market in London, or the similar parts of the TSE and Vancouver exchanges. There needs to be somewhere that junior (ie, not yet producing) miners can go get the necessary capital. Someone, somewhere, has to pay for the exploration and proving work … Continued
CXApp (NASDAQ: CXAI) was quite the exciting stock last week, jumping from $1.33 to, at one point intraday, $50 or so. It fell off from that, obviously enough. Quite why the massive excitement no one is really quite sure. A recent Spac deal it does something with AI and perhaps that’s enough to get the … Continued
Warren Buffett once famously advised investors to ‘be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.’ He’s not wrong. I am not going to liken myself to the ‘Sage of Omaha,’ nor in any way believe that I will reach the heights attained by the nonagenarian Chair and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Macroeconomic data: US data is light the coming week, but we do get Canada, UK and EU CPI, plus China GDP, UK Employment and Retail Sales, but standout data for the week is probably the global Flash PMI from S&P Global on Friday Date Key … Continued
The former Soviet state is toeing a delicate line between Russian politics, Chinese protections, and European energy concerns. Uranium is in many ways like lithium. It’s non-fungible, very reactive, and for many years was unprofitable to mine out of the ground. But with nuclear power becoming much more acceptable as a ‘green energy’ source, and … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 10/04/23 Easter Monday holiday, UK and European markets are closed; Fed’s Williams speaks 11/04/23 China CPI; EU Retail Sales; Fed’s Harker speaks 12/04/23 Fed’s Kashkari speaks; US CPI; BoC interest rate decision and statement; FOMC Minutes released 13/04/23 Australian Employment report; … Continued
There has been a re-emergence of a banking crisis in 2023. Suddenly, traders are looking out for key indicators of stress in the banking system. This has brought credit default swaps back into focus. This is enough to put the shudders down the spine of even the hardiest of traders. Credit Default Swaps (or CDS … Continued
OPEC has played this particular gambit before. It didn’t work then, and it won’t work now. Brent Crude — the North Sea oil benchmark — traded for an average of circa $70 per barrel in 2021, $42 in 2020 (when oil went negative for the first time ever), and $64 in 2019. BP CEO Bernard … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 03/04/23 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (global): US ISM PMI; Fed Governor Cook speaks 04/04/23 RBA interest rate decision and statement; Fed Governor Cook speaks 05/04/23 S&P Global Services PMI (global): US ISM PMI; US ADP Employment change 06/04/23 Canada Employment report … Continued
Inflation, Sino-Western tensions, falling ore quality and excess plant capacity are all creating a flourishing mergers and acquisitions environment. As an investor in multiple LSE-listed mining small caps, and an analyst of the larger titans, I have a fairly wide view of the mining industry. And the key thing I keep coming back to is … Continued
When trading or investing it helps if we know what we’re doing. That means grasping that certain instruments are designed for specific purposes and not just don’t work well, are positively money losing, when used for some other purpose. So, it is with the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x ETF (NYSEARCA: SOXL). This is for … Continued
Lake Resources (OTCQB: LLKKF) (ASX: LKE) is a perfectly respectable looking junior lithium miner. Junior, here, means “someone not producing yet”. Junior miners is also where all the excitement is in the mining world – who is exploring, who finds what, who gains finance to actually mine and so on. Some such projects have a … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 27/03/23 Shift to Daylight Saving Time in the UK and EU on 26/03/23; German IFO 28/03/23 Australian Retail Sales 29/03/23 Australian CPI 30/03/23 EU Consumer Confidence; German CPI; US GDP and PCE 31/03/23 Japan CPI; China PMI; UK GDP; German Retail … Continued
Shaun Downey, expert technical analyst, looks at what the charts are telling him about the current fears gripping financial markets. Remember Shaun’s great call for Gold back at the end of January. Gold and Silver trends remain bullish!
UBS (NYSE: UBS) took over Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) and thereby prevented a bank collapse. More, a bank collapse in one of the world’s top 30 systemically important banks. This stops another Lehman Brothers moment leading to the collapse of the financial system – and yet all other banks equities fell as a result, why? … Continued
Explaining the value interplay between Gold, Bitcoin, the US Dollar, and defensive stocks in simple layman’s terms. When monetary policy is loose, interest rates are low, and growth is cheap. In this boom phase of the economic cycle investors often pile their capital into tech stocks, which thrive on the waters of cheap debt. However, … Continued
The shares of UK Product Group (LON: UKR) went up 62.5% on Thursday 17 March. This means absolutely nothing of any importance and is not something we could have made money out of trading. If we’d even tried to trade it, we would have lost money doing so. This is an important lesson about trading … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 20/03/23 Japan Vernal Equinox Day markets closed; no data of note 21/03/23 RBA Meeting Minutes; German ZEW Survey; Canadian CPI 22/03/23 UK CPI; US FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Projections and Press Conference 23/03/23 SNB and BoE Interest Rate Decisions 24/03/23 UK … Continued
There are at least three things that can kill off a business idea and what we’ve got to decide with Carvana (NYSE: CVNA) and Cazoo (NYSE: CZOO) is which one of the three – or indeed some other – is dragging them down. Only once we’ve worked out why it’s not currently working can we … Continued
One of the more surprising outcomes of the Silicon Valley Bank (NASDAQ: SIVB) collapse and bankruptcy is that stablecoins are not, in fact, stable. The reason being that there’s just no good place to put piles of billions of dollars. Nowhere that’s absolutely, 100%, safe that is. There are varying levels of safety, true, but … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 13/03/23 US switched to Daylight Saving Time on Sunday 12/03 14/03/23 UK Employment report; US CPI 15/03/23 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; China Retails Sales; EU industrial Production; US Retail Sales 16/03/23 Australian Employment report; ECB Monetary Policy Decision, Statement and … Continued
Botswana Diamonds is processing material at Marsfontein. Quality results could be the catalyst investors have been waiting for. Despite a little volatility, Botswana Diamonds (LON: BOD) shares have essentially been on a road to nowhere for years. Down by 13% over the past five years, BOD has however risen by 25% year-to-date. And after peaking … Continued
Funding Circle (LON: FCH) started out as what seemed like a great idea. Let’s go revolutionise the small business lending market! We all know that British banks don’t lend to business, even when they do it’s only against security, there’s a ripe market for the picking there. Since then, the share price has gone from … Continued
This is not a particular exhortation that we should all go out and trade cryptocurrencies. But it is an observation about the cryptocurrency environment. Prices are changing wildly within crypto – that’s great, we’re traders, we want to be able to be on the right side of changing prices. That’s what trading is – being … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 06/03/23 EU Retail Sales 07/03/23 RBA interest rate decision; Jerome Powell testimony to Congress 08/03/23 German Retail Sales; EU Employment and GDP; ADP Employment Change; Jerome Powell testimony to Congress; BoC interest rate decision 09/03/23 Japan GDP; China CPI 10/03/23 BoJ … Continued
Rolls Royce (LON: RR) shares jumped 25 pence, or near 24% in just the one day last week. Being on the right end of that would have been good – which means we must analyse why it happened, so we have a chance of spotting it being about to happen again. The standard story we’re … Continued
We might well want to be able to trade macroeconomic news – so, unemployment, GDP growth, interest rates etc –simply because that’s something that changes market prices. The problem with doing this with any individual stock – say Exxon (NYSE: XOM) is that there can and will be specific issues to do with that corporation … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 27/02/23 US Durable Goods 28/02/23 Australian Retail Sales; Canada GDP; US Consumer Confidence 01/03/23 Australian GDP; global S&P Global Manufacturing PMI; German Unemployment and CPI; US ISM Manufacturing PMI 02/03/23 EU Unemployment and CPI 03/03/23 Global S&P Global Services and … Continued
Government policy has always been designed to support the housing market. Until now, that is. After spending most of 2022 warning that a UK house price correction was on the cards — please read here for some light reading — it appears that institutions are finally on the case. Lloyds, the UK’s largest mortgage lender, … Continued
We’re just going through the British bank reporting season and everyone’s profits are up. So, therefore British banks must be a good buy, right? Quite possibly, yes, but it’s important to understand that there’s a temporary feature to a part of this profits rise. The interest rate margin only keeps increasing if interest rates keep … Continued
So, this electronic revolution is going to make rare metals soar in price and stay up, right? Those battery metals – cobalt, lithium – and the rare earths for the magnets, they’re stonking to the Moon and no mistake, undoubtedly. Except metals markets don’t in fact work that way. Sure, demand changes, prices change, but … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 20/02/23 US Presidents day holiday, US equity and bond cash markets are closed; PBoC interest rate decision 21/02/23 RBA Meeting Minutes; global S&P Global Flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI); Canada CPI and Retail Sales 22/02/23 German CPI; German IFO Survey; FOMC … Continued
US Dollar Index Gains (DXY forecast) EuroYen breaks up (EURJPY forecast) Aussie reaches major downside target (AUDUSD forecast)
Of course, Lyft (NASDAQ: LYFT) and Uber (NYSE: UBER) has always been separate companies. But for much of their dual existence they’ve just been seen as two aspects of the same economic sector. If ride hailing and ride sharing work, then so will both companies – if they won’t then neither Uber nor Lyft will. … Continued
Once again, we’ve a politician not quite understanding what he wants to regulate – in this case it’s US sports betting and the associated stocks. So, the likes of Flutter (LON: FLTR), DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM). All have substantial US sports betting businesses. All will benefit – yes, benefit – from … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 13/02/23 Nothing of note 14/02/23 Japan GDP; UK Employment report; EU GDP; US CPI 15/02/23 UK CPI; US Retail Sales 16/02/23 Australian Employment report; US PPI 17/02/23 UK Retail Sales
Inflation is supposedly on its way to falling gently back to 2% like a fluffy snowflake while the US economy roars ahead. Or at least that is what the deep state of Wall Street needs you to think. However, the US economy is in the eye of the hurricane right now; and the other outer … Continued
Most analysts expect that the UK base rate will settle below 5%. A rise to double-digits seems unlikely — but another one-off event cannot be ruled out. In October 2022, I made the case that a 10% base rate was coming for the UK. At the time, the country was reeling from the devastating effects … Continued
Gold bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart & then the weekly chart suggested the 3 month rally in Gold just ended. Silver huge bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart is a sell signal as we take out all the candles for the 7 weeks last week. WTI Crude April unexpectedly recovered all of … Continued
Darktrace (LON: DARK) found itself the target of a shortselling report from Quintessential Capital Management and the shares dropped 20% and more in a day – to largely regain their losses it is true. The problem here is that whether the allegations about the accounting are true or not doesn’t really matter. Well, of course … Continued
AUDUSD rejected the 100 week & the 500 day moving averages at 7160/80 & collapsed through support at 7060/50 on Friday for a sell signal targeting 6990/80 & 6930/20. A low for the day exactly here in fact. This is key 23.6% Fibonacci & 3 month trend line support at 6930/10. Longs need stops below … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 06/02/23 EU Retail Sales 07/02/23 RBA interest rate decision; Fed’s Powell speaks 08/02/23 Nothing of note 09/02/23 German CPI 10/02/23 China CPI, UK GDP, Manufacturing and Industrial Production; Canada Employment report; US Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Genedrive is financially almost out of runway, but its tech makes it a reasonable buyout target. Genedrive (LON: GDR) is a FTSE AIM company out of which many investors have fallen in love. The molecular diagnostics biotech company spiked multiple times through the pandemic-induced meme hysteria, reaching a record 173p per share in May 2020. … Continued
News that the new CEO of Rolls Royce (LON: RR.) called the company a “burning platform” broke on Friday sending the shares down 3% or so. This is a reversal, it’s true, but then RR has near doubled since October. So, what actually is going on here? The doubling, well, that’s simple enough to explain. … Continued
Dax 40 March is forming a sideways consolidation as volatility decreases, which is normal in both a bull & bear trend. We do not know how long this process will take but there is definitely no sell signal at this stage. We held a range of about 250 ticks last week so there are few … Continued
Shares in the 7 key listed companies of the Adani Group have risen some 800% in the past three years. Now they’re falling and falling hard. So, why’s that? The trigger for the fall is the short selling report issued by Hindenburg Research. But there’s something we’ve got to know about short seller reports. They’re … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 30/01/23 German GDP; EU Consumer Confidence 31/01/23 China PMI; German Retail Sales; EU GDP; German CPI; US Consumer Confidence 01/02/23 EU CPI; global Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global; US ISM Manufacturing PMI; FOMC interest rate decision 02/02/23 BoE interest rate decision; … Continued
AUDUSD we will stick with buying at support until it looks like we have a sell signal. Good support at 7065/60 (although we did not reach here yesterday). Longs need stops below 7045. Target is 7115/20 then 7160/65. A break below 7045 however risks a slide to to strong support at 7010/00. Longs need stops … Continued
HARL shares have experienced significant volatility in recent weeks, but a push higher remains on the cards for investors with a healthy risk appetite. Harland & Wolff (LON: HARL) shares are at this point a relatively stressful investment for long term position investors. Not only is the company down by 42% over the past five … Continued
Dax 40 March is forming a sideways consolidation as volatility decreases, which is normal in both a bull & bear trend. We do not know how long this process will take but there is definitely no sell signal at this stage. FTSE 100 March holding a 3 day range from 7710 up to 7780. Remember … Continued
As our example we’re just going to take the Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares (NYSEARCA: LABU) as our example. This isn’t the only leveraged ETF out there by a long way it’s just an example. There is the Bear version of the same Direxion ETF (NYSEARCA: LABD) for example, they near always come … Continued
Lithium is, of course, the brave new metal of the green energy revolution. We’ve not got any other material to use for automotive batteries, not of any consequence. The assumption is that lithium demand will rise at least 1000% over the next decade or so. The price has already risen at least that in anticipation … Continued
Gold longs at my buy level of 1915/10 worked perfectly with a low for the day at 1911 before we shot higher to 1932 for a quick & easy 15 point profit. That’s up to 50 points profit in gold over the last week. Silver moving in the opposite direction as we plunge to 2274 … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 23/01/23 BoJ Meeting Minutes; EU Consumer Confidence 24/01/23 Flash PMI global drive from S&P Global 25/01/23 Australian CPI; German IFO; BoC interest rate decision 26/01/23 US GDP, PCE, Durable and Capital Goods Orders 27/01/23 US PCE
Emini S&P March shorts at the sell area of 4000/4020 hit all my targets as far as 3900/3890 (with a low for the day just a point above here yesterday). Hopefully you bagged 100 points this week. Nasdaq March we wrote: the break lower can target 11470/430 then support at 11340/300. Spot on as we … Continued
One of the little sadness’s of life is that no stock picking method – no investing method – works all the time. If it did then everyone would do it and all the potential profits would be gone. However, what is true is that certain investment picking methods work some of the time. The trick … Continued
BRES shares are admittedly highly speculative, but a speculative position could prove lucrative for small-cap position investors. Blencowe Resources (LON: BRES) shares constitute my fourth and final small-cap graphite stock to consider for 2023. Like many small caps on the UK’s most volatile index, the sub-£10 million graphite explorer has sent long term investors on … Continued
Emini S&P March – It’s make or break for Emini S&P today as we test: The 1 year 38.2% Fibonacci resistance at 4000 The 5 month 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at 4012. The 1 year downward sloping trend line at 4020. In overbought conditions. Even on the short term charts, taking my Fibonacci levels from the … Continued
Gold broke through resistance at 1878/88 & has cleared 1895 for a buy signal targeting 1905 & 1915, perhaps as far as 1925. A nice move last week at the end of the week as we beat 1895 reaching 1921/22 on Friday. Silver in a consolidation after 3 months of gains as we wait for … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 16/01/23 US Martin Luther King Holiday, equity and bonds cash markets are closed 17/01/23 China GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales, UK Employment report, German CPI, German ZEW Survey, Canada CPI 18/01/23 UK inflation report (CPI); EU CPI; US PPI and … Continued
Gold reached the resistance at 1878/88 with a high for the week exactly here. There is no sell signal yet but obviously today’s direction will be driven by the US CPI number, with 6.4% expected. The levels for today are very clear on the 4 hour chart. Silver in a 1 month erratic sideways trend. … Continued
Say that we want to speculate upon BONK – and speculate it would be of course – then we face something of a problem. For actual crypto exchanges seem to be falling over with depressing regularity. This then means that speculation on DOGE, or Shiba Inu (SHIB) – all things that might be connected – … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 09/01/23 EU Unemployment 10/01/23 Japan CPI 11/01/23 China CPI 12/01/23 US CPI 13/01/23 UK GDP, Industrial & Manufacturing Production; Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains unimpressed with the reduction of the rate of inflation; down to 7.1% in November, from 9.1% June. The Summary of Economic Projections shows a desire of the Fed to increase their forecast for the Fed Funds Rate to 5% in 2023, up from the 4.6% projection made in the last … Continued
Dropping foul news into the markets just before a long weekend offers the chance for people to have forgotten about it by the time the markets reopen. Or, perhaps, that’s often the hope, as with Harland & Wolff’s (LON: HARL) announcement that revenue for the year just gone – to Dec 31, 2022 – will … Continued
We might think that we have to be not cynical, uncynical, to believe that just as Santa brings presents to all the little kiddies so the Santa Rally also provides an annual profit-making opportunity for us traders. Yet the actual explanation of why there is such a rally is profoundly cynical, it incorporates a possibly … Continued
The 2023 global recession could crash demand in the short term. But the long-term supply gap is the critical factor to consider for position investors. Two conflicting forces are conspiring to create an even more volatile environment for hard commodities in 2023. One is short-term, the other long-term, and analysts are conflicted over how these … Continued
There can be no denying that 2022 has proven to be a challenging year for all investors. For example, the FTSE All World Index has a 1-Year change of -17.26%. Similarly, the S&P Global 100 has a 1-Year change of -13.45%. (As at 10:30 on Friday, December 16th, 2022). A similar tale of poor performance … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week This will be the last MacroWatch report for 2022. Happy holidays to you all, Merry Christmas and wishing you a great trading and investing year for 2023! Date Key Macroeconomic Events 19/12/22 German IFO Survey 20/12/22 RBA Meeting Minutes, PBoC interest rate decision; BoJ interest … Continued
All too often we think of “the shipping industry” without thinking it through properly – it’s actually a series of different industries. Precisely because it is that series different parts of shipping can be at entirely different points in the cycle. For example, Moller Maersk (NASDAQ: MAERSKA) (LON: 0O77) did very well out of the … Continued
The New Year is just around the corner and so it is quite an appropriate time to take stock and consider what trends may shape our investment outlook heading into 2023. One cannot say that COVID-19 and/or its variants has fully been vanquished. Coupled with the risk of a larger scale war in Europe, a … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 12/12/22 UK GDP, Industrial and Manufacturing Production 13/12/22 UK Employment; German CPI; German and EU ZEW Survey; US CPI 14/12/22 Japan Tankan report; UK inflation report (including CPI); FOMC Meeting, interest rate decision and press conference 15/12/22 Australia Employment; China Industrial … Continued
We all know that the world is using much more lithium – all those Teslas, Rivians and other EV s are just packed with it. Demand is soaring so those producing now are coining cash – like Sigma Lithium (CVE: SGML) soon will be. The only really world class deposit that’s about to come on … Continued
Sino-US tensions, macroeconomic factors, shifting politics, increased competition, and Tesla’s pace of innovation all contribute to an increasingly complex investment case. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares are the long-term investor’s marmite. The EV stock’s market cap rose to more than $1 trillion last year with an all-time-high share price of $410 on a post-split basis by … Continued
By definition the price of a share on the market is the right price for that share on the market. That’s just what market price means – that’s the price. Which means that the short sellers in Home REIT (LON: HOME) are correct when they say it was overvalued at 120p, overvalued at 80p and … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 05/12/22 Global Services and Composite PMI data from S&P Global and US ISM Service PMI; EU Retail Sales 06/12/22 RBA interest rate decision 07/12/22 Australian GDP; EU GDP; BoC interest rate decision 08/12/22 Japan GDP 09/12/22 US PPI; Michigan Consumer Sentiment … Continued