The analysis of markets is a critical part of the trading decisions of any trader or investor. The individual trader or trading group may have a preference for: Macroeconomic Analysis, Microeconomics Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Behavioural Analysis, Quantitative Analysis and Technical Analysis. But whichever approach is employed, it is through this analysis that the trader decides:
In this section we provide daily, real time market views including currency pairs forecasts, primarily through the approach of Technical Analysis, but also by utilising other approaches to market analysis. Many of our analyses also contains a video explaining the analyses. Click here for all video analyses and here for all forex news.
Most analysts expect that the UK base rate will settle below 5%. A rise to double-digits seems unlikely — but another one-off event cannot be ruled out. In October 2022, I made the case that a 10% base rate was coming for the UK. At the time, the country was reeling from the devastating effects … Continued
Gold bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart & then the weekly chart suggested the 3 month rally in Gold just ended. Silver huge bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart is a sell signal as we take out all the candles for the 7 weeks last week. WTI Crude April unexpectedly recovered all of … Continued
Darktrace (LON: DARK) found itself the target of a shortselling report from Quintessential Capital Management and the shares dropped 20% and more in a day – to largely regain their losses it is true. The problem here is that whether the allegations about the accounting are true or not doesn’t really matter. Well, of course … Continued
AUDUSD rejected the 100 week & the 500 day moving averages at 7160/80 & collapsed through support at 7060/50 on Friday for a sell signal targeting 6990/80 & 6930/20. A low for the day exactly here in fact. This is key 23.6% Fibonacci & 3 month trend line support at 6930/10. Longs need stops below … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 06/02/23 EU Retail Sales 07/02/23 RBA interest rate decision; Fed’s Powell speaks 08/02/23 Nothing of note 09/02/23 German CPI 10/02/23 China CPI, UK GDP, Manufacturing and Industrial Production; Canada Employment report; US Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Genedrive is financially almost out of runway, but its tech makes it a reasonable buyout target. Genedrive (LON: GDR) is a FTSE AIM company out of which many investors have fallen in love. The molecular diagnostics biotech company spiked multiple times through the pandemic-induced meme hysteria, reaching a record 173p per share in May 2020. … Continued
News that the new CEO of Rolls Royce (LON: RR.) called the company a “burning platform” broke on Friday sending the shares down 3% or so. This is a reversal, it’s true, but then RR has near doubled since October. So, what actually is going on here? The doubling, well, that’s simple enough to explain. … Continued
Dax 40 March is forming a sideways consolidation as volatility decreases, which is normal in both a bull & bear trend. We do not know how long this process will take but there is definitely no sell signal at this stage. We held a range of about 250 ticks last week so there are few … Continued
Shares in the 7 key listed companies of the Adani Group have risen some 800% in the past three years. Now they’re falling and falling hard. So, why’s that? The trigger for the fall is the short selling report issued by Hindenburg Research. But there’s something we’ve got to know about short seller reports. They’re … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 30/01/23 German GDP; EU Consumer Confidence 31/01/23 China PMI; German Retail Sales; EU GDP; German CPI; US Consumer Confidence 01/02/23 EU CPI; global Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global; US ISM Manufacturing PMI; FOMC interest rate decision 02/02/23 BoE interest rate decision; … Continued
AUDUSD we will stick with buying at support until it looks like we have a sell signal. Good support at 7065/60 (although we did not reach here yesterday). Longs need stops below 7045. Target is 7115/20 then 7160/65. A break below 7045 however risks a slide to to strong support at 7010/00. Longs need stops … Continued
HARL shares have experienced significant volatility in recent weeks, but a push higher remains on the cards for investors with a healthy risk appetite. Harland & Wolff (LON: HARL) shares are at this point a relatively stressful investment for long term position investors. Not only is the company down by 42% over the past five … Continued
Dax 40 March is forming a sideways consolidation as volatility decreases, which is normal in both a bull & bear trend. We do not know how long this process will take but there is definitely no sell signal at this stage. FTSE 100 March holding a 3 day range from 7710 up to 7780. Remember … Continued
As our example we’re just going to take the Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares (NYSEARCA: LABU) as our example. This isn’t the only leveraged ETF out there by a long way it’s just an example. There is the Bear version of the same Direxion ETF (NYSEARCA: LABD) for example, they near always come … Continued
Lithium is, of course, the brave new metal of the green energy revolution. We’ve not got any other material to use for automotive batteries, not of any consequence. The assumption is that lithium demand will rise at least 1000% over the next decade or so. The price has already risen at least that in anticipation … Continued
Gold longs at my buy level of 1915/10 worked perfectly with a low for the day at 1911 before we shot higher to 1932 for a quick & easy 15 point profit. That’s up to 50 points profit in gold over the last week. Silver moving in the opposite direction as we plunge to 2274 … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 23/01/23 BoJ Meeting Minutes; EU Consumer Confidence 24/01/23 Flash PMI global drive from S&P Global 25/01/23 Australian CPI; German IFO; BoC interest rate decision 26/01/23 US GDP, PCE, Durable and Capital Goods Orders 27/01/23 US PCE
Emini S&P March shorts at the sell area of 4000/4020 hit all my targets as far as 3900/3890 (with a low for the day just a point above here yesterday). Hopefully you bagged 100 points this week. Nasdaq March we wrote: the break lower can target 11470/430 then support at 11340/300. Spot on as we … Continued
One of the little sadness’s of life is that no stock picking method – no investing method – works all the time. If it did then everyone would do it and all the potential profits would be gone. However, what is true is that certain investment picking methods work some of the time. The trick … Continued
BRES shares are admittedly highly speculative, but a speculative position could prove lucrative for small-cap position investors. Blencowe Resources (LON: BRES) shares constitute my fourth and final small-cap graphite stock to consider for 2023. Like many small caps on the UK’s most volatile index, the sub-£10 million graphite explorer has sent long term investors on … Continued
Emini S&P March – It’s make or break for Emini S&P today as we test: The 1 year 38.2% Fibonacci resistance at 4000 The 5 month 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at 4012. The 1 year downward sloping trend line at 4020. In overbought conditions. Even on the short term charts, taking my Fibonacci levels from the … Continued
Gold broke through resistance at 1878/88 & has cleared 1895 for a buy signal targeting 1905 & 1915, perhaps as far as 1925. A nice move last week at the end of the week as we beat 1895 reaching 1921/22 on Friday. Silver in a consolidation after 3 months of gains as we wait for … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 16/01/23 US Martin Luther King Holiday, equity and bonds cash markets are closed 17/01/23 China GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales, UK Employment report, German CPI, German ZEW Survey, Canada CPI 18/01/23 UK inflation report (CPI); EU CPI; US PPI and … Continued
Gold reached the resistance at 1878/88 with a high for the week exactly here. There is no sell signal yet but obviously today’s direction will be driven by the US CPI number, with 6.4% expected. The levels for today are very clear on the 4 hour chart. Silver in a 1 month erratic sideways trend. … Continued
Say that we want to speculate upon BONK – and speculate it would be of course – then we face something of a problem. For actual crypto exchanges seem to be falling over with depressing regularity. This then means that speculation on DOGE, or Shiba Inu (SHIB) – all things that might be connected – … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 09/01/23 EU Unemployment 10/01/23 Japan CPI 11/01/23 China CPI 12/01/23 US CPI 13/01/23 UK GDP, Industrial & Manufacturing Production; Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains unimpressed with the reduction of the rate of inflation; down to 7.1% in November, from 9.1% June. The Summary of Economic Projections shows a desire of the Fed to increase their forecast for the Fed Funds Rate to 5% in 2023, up from the 4.6% projection made in the last … Continued
Dropping foul news into the markets just before a long weekend offers the chance for people to have forgotten about it by the time the markets reopen. Or, perhaps, that’s often the hope, as with Harland & Wolff’s (LON: HARL) announcement that revenue for the year just gone – to Dec 31, 2022 – will … Continued
We might think that we have to be not cynical, uncynical, to believe that just as Santa brings presents to all the little kiddies so the Santa Rally also provides an annual profit-making opportunity for us traders. Yet the actual explanation of why there is such a rally is profoundly cynical, it incorporates a possibly … Continued
The 2023 global recession could crash demand in the short term. But the long-term supply gap is the critical factor to consider for position investors. Two conflicting forces are conspiring to create an even more volatile environment for hard commodities in 2023. One is short-term, the other long-term, and analysts are conflicted over how these … Continued
There can be no denying that 2022 has proven to be a challenging year for all investors. For example, the FTSE All World Index has a 1-Year change of -17.26%. Similarly, the S&P Global 100 has a 1-Year change of -13.45%. (As at 10:30 on Friday, December 16th, 2022). A similar tale of poor performance … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week This will be the last MacroWatch report for 2022. Happy holidays to you all, Merry Christmas and wishing you a great trading and investing year for 2023! Date Key Macroeconomic Events 19/12/22 German IFO Survey 20/12/22 RBA Meeting Minutes, PBoC interest rate decision; BoJ interest … Continued
All too often we think of “the shipping industry” without thinking it through properly – it’s actually a series of different industries. Precisely because it is that series different parts of shipping can be at entirely different points in the cycle. For example, Moller Maersk (NASDAQ: MAERSKA) (LON: 0O77) did very well out of the … Continued
The New Year is just around the corner and so it is quite an appropriate time to take stock and consider what trends may shape our investment outlook heading into 2023. One cannot say that COVID-19 and/or its variants has fully been vanquished. Coupled with the risk of a larger scale war in Europe, a … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 12/12/22 UK GDP, Industrial and Manufacturing Production 13/12/22 UK Employment; German CPI; German and EU ZEW Survey; US CPI 14/12/22 Japan Tankan report; UK inflation report (including CPI); FOMC Meeting, interest rate decision and press conference 15/12/22 Australia Employment; China Industrial … Continued
We all know that the world is using much more lithium – all those Teslas, Rivians and other EV s are just packed with it. Demand is soaring so those producing now are coining cash – like Sigma Lithium (CVE: SGML) soon will be. The only really world class deposit that’s about to come on … Continued
Sino-US tensions, macroeconomic factors, shifting politics, increased competition, and Tesla’s pace of innovation all contribute to an increasingly complex investment case. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares are the long-term investor’s marmite. The EV stock’s market cap rose to more than $1 trillion last year with an all-time-high share price of $410 on a post-split basis by … Continued
By definition the price of a share on the market is the right price for that share on the market. That’s just what market price means – that’s the price. Which means that the short sellers in Home REIT (LON: HOME) are correct when they say it was overvalued at 120p, overvalued at 80p and … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 05/12/22 Global Services and Composite PMI data from S&P Global and US ISM Service PMI; EU Retail Sales 06/12/22 RBA interest rate decision 07/12/22 Australian GDP; EU GDP; BoC interest rate decision 08/12/22 Japan GDP 09/12/22 US PPI; Michigan Consumer Sentiment … Continued
As the coldest days of the Northern Hemisphere winter arrive one can expect energy stocks to receive fresh impetus as global investors seek positions that will derive economic benefit from expected increase in prices and the shortages expected. In September, as autumn leaves were starting to fall, 66% of the respondents to a survey conducted … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 28/11/22 Australian Retail Sales 29/11/22 German CPI; Canadian GDP 30/11/22 Australian CPI; German Employment report; EU CPI; ADP Employment change; US GDP and PCE; Fed Chairman Powell speaks 01/12/22 German Retail Sales; global PMI data from S&P Global and US ISM … Continued
The idea that these stocks are not sensitive to higher interest rates, while these over here are, is true. But that does depend more than a little bit on the weight we put on that word “sensitive”. For at some level of movement of interest rates all stocks will change in price. Other levels of … Continued
One answer to that headline question – UK Energy prices, what’s up? – is that UK energy prices are up, that’s what. But that’s not a grandly illuminative statement as most of us have seen our own bills where this is true. And, of course, what most of us want to know is what happens … Continued
Selling pressure and elevated volatility have been crucial factors that investors have had to endure throughout a bruising year for financial markets in 2022. Anyone that has not been long of the US Dollar or has been unable to short the markets will likely be nursing some fairly hefty losses to their investing account. However, … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments UK inflation accelerated more than anticipated in October to hit a 41-year high of 11.1%, significantly above the 10.1% print in September. Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 21/11/22 PBoC interest rate decision 22/11/22 Canada Retail Sales 23/11/22 RBNZ interest rate decision; global Flash PMI from S&P … Continued
Despite its performance, gold will always have a following amongst the investment community. The price has been falling for much of 2022. However, as the disclaimers warn us, prices can go up as well as down. Could this all be about to turn around again? We look at the key factors driving the gold price. … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 14/11/22 Nothing of note 15/11/22 RBA Minutes; China Retail Sales; UK Employment; EU GDP; German ZEW Survey; US PPI 16/11/22 UK inflation report (including CPI); US Retail Sales; Canada CPI 17/11/22 Australia Employment; EU CPI 18/11/22 UK Retail Sales
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 07/11/22 China trade data 08/11/22 US midterm elections; EU Retail Sales 09/11/22 China CPI 10/11/22 US CPI 11/11/22 UK GDP; German CPI; US Veterans Day, Bond markets closed
This latest bear-market bounce was predicated on good seasonality, the hopes for a typical mid-term election boost, and the rumors of a Fed pivot. Wall Street always finds a narrative for rallies in a bear market. But the negative economic and liquidity cycles remain unchanged: The Fed is hiking rates into a recession. Powell may … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US third-quarter earnings results are largely meeting or beating expectations. About a fifth of S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 results, and approximately 73% have exceeded forecasts. Investor sentiment has been very negative, possibly assisting the market rebound, the Bank of America Fund Managers monthly survey showed investors were holding the most … Continued
Yen retraces to break point (USDJPY forecast) Aussie breaks up (AUDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US core consumer price index (CPI) inflation hit at four-decade high, at 6.6% year-over-year, higher than consensus. Earnings season began, with US financials leading the way, overall posting above expectations. In the UK, the U-turns continue on the much-criticised mini budget, with the chancellor of the exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng a political casualty, … Continued
Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast) Aussie breaks down (AUDUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments On the data front, Monday saw the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI activity data, which was below expectations, and also showed falling price pressures (fuelling a risk on theme to start the week, month and quarter). Further easing inflation fears and adding to the risk on tone, the US job … Continued
Pound fails at significant resistance barrier (GBPUSD forecast) Yen posts major buy signal (USDJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The UK mini-budget on Friday 23rd September that saw tax-cuts, the cancellation of national insurance and corporation tax increases, supply-side reforms, plus a GBP 60 billion energy support package had serious impacts on global financial markets last week. The Pound plunged across the Forex board, which saw Cable, GBPUSD, hit an all-time-low, … Continued
Euro-Pound hits upside target (EURGBP forecast) Cable rebound still caped by resistance (GBPUSD forecast) Minor supports form for commodity currencies, but still vulnerable (AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The key focus last week was the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, statement and press conference on Wednesday. This brought an anticipated 75bp rate hike, but also a more hawkish tone than markets had anticipated, with rates possibly now moving to a higher peak in 2023 up to 4.50% and … Continued
US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast) Euro & Pound break down (EURUSD & GBPUSD forecasts) Dollar-Yen posts negative (USDJPY forecast) Euro-Pound and Dollar-CAD continue uptrends (EURGBP & USDCAD forecasts)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The dominant event last week was the far higher than expected release for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. Headline CPI rose 8.3% YoY ended August against expectations of an 8.1% rise. Core inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) leapt to its highest level since March at 6.3%, higher … Continued
Euro-Pound breaks to the upside (EURGBP forecast) Cable teeters over the edge (GBPUSD forecast) US Dollar-CAD breaks higher (USDCAD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Easing inflation fears seemed to be at work last week, possibly assisted by a midweek decline in oil prices to multi-month lows. Plus, the Fed’s “Beige Book” indicated that price increases were moderating in 9 of its 12 districts. Fed speakers Brainard and Mester also delivered comments that seemed to be more … Continued
Pound holds critical support (GBPUSD forecast) US Dollar Index retreats and is back in sideways (DXY forecast) EuroYen reaches major upside target (EURJPY forecast)
US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast) US Dollar-Yen at multi-year high (USDJPY forecast) Pound is extremely vulnerable (GBPUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Further hawkish messages from Federal Reserve officials last week have reinforced the tone evident since the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell’s 26th August Jackson Hole speech. Friday’s US Employment report saw 315K jobs added, down from the revised 526K number for July, but still a solid report. Global financial market developments The major … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Markets had interpreted Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference after the July 26-27 policy meeting as a dovish “pivot”. Last week several Fed officials pushed back against this dovish market narrative and indicated that the central bank is still steadfast in raising rates until inflation is under control House Speaker Nancy … Continued
Positive appears on Dollar-Yen (USDJPY forecast) US Dollar and Euro stuck in sideways (EURUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased rates on Wednesday by 0.75%, taking the benchmark Fed Funds rate to about 2.5% Powell highlighted a Fed Funds range of 3.0%-3.5% by year end, implying about 50-100 basis points of more tightening over the three meetings for the balance of this year, … Continued
EURUSD resistance challenges (EURUSD forecast) Yen turns strong (USDJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The Monthly Fund Manager Survey from Bank of America showed that funds’ cash holdings are at their highest levels since 9/11, and equity exposure at the lowest levels since the 2007–2009 global financial crisis and recession. This can be viewed as a contrary indicator, meaning that there is plenty of cash to … Continued
US Dollar Index sets back (DXY forecast) US DollarYen false break out higher (USDJPY forecast) Major support lies below on EuroYen (EURJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The big data print came from US CPI on Wednesday with the headline number moving to 9.1% YoY, up from the 8.6% print in May and higher than consensus. There is now a growing anticipation from short-term interest rate markets that the Fed could raise rates by 1.00% at their meeting on … Continued
US Dollar Index hits major target (DXY forecast) Euro also reaches major level (EURUSD forecast) US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday reinforced recent hawkish comments from Fed members. S&P Global Services and Composite PMI, plus US ISM Services PMI came in above forecast for the US and were also broadly better than expected globally and notably for the UK and across Europe, although hitting very low levels. … Continued
US Dollar Index Extends Bull Trend (DXY forecast) Euro Continues its Bear Trend (EURUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2022, from Sintra, Portugal saw the world’s major central bankers reaffirm their commitment to fighting inflation. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data was mixed last week, with some of the European data beating expectations, whilst the US PMI data from S&P Global just … Continued
The US Dollar Index Approaches Multi-Year Peak (DXY forecast) Aussie & Kiwi Dollars Break Down ( AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts ) Euro Vulnerable Too (EURUSD forecast) Pound Creates Major Support (GBPUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Moderating inflation pressures and falling growth data helped global stock indices secures gains and technical bases last week. Global S&P Flash PMI on Thursday were not only lower than for May, but also below expectations in many instances, with the US services data hitting its lowest level since January. In addition, long … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Central Banks were front and center last week, with the Swiss National Bank (SNB), US Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) all in play. First, the ECB held an ad hoc, emergency meeting on Wednesday to deal with surging bond yields for … Continued
US Dollar-Yen holds key support Dollar-CAD breaks up
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) pivoted to a more hawkish stance on Thursday, signaling a rate hike in July and maybe more aggressive rate hikes than anticipated thereafter. In addition, they announced the end to their Quantative Easing (QE) program, the Asset Purchase Program (APP) Friday’s US CPI data showed … Continued
US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast) Euro and Pound have no support (EURUSD and GBPUSD forecasts) US Dollar-CAD breaks up (USDCAD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The EU agreed on a partial ban on Russian oil. OPEC+ agreed on bigger oil-output hikes for July and August on Thursday, but still disappointed the oil market, which rebounded strongly, having previously sold off in anticipation of more aggressive hikes. EU inflation hit a new record high at 8.1%. Despite markets … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Selling exhaustion in the equity markets saw recoveries last week, and a cross market shift to a “risk on” theme. This was helped by some positive forecasts from Macy’s, Ralph Lauren and Nordstrom. Fed Minutes pointed to hints of flexibility, helping the more positive outlook. Economic data was mixed, but the PCE … Continued
US Dollar Index continues lower Euro-US Dollar approaching major resistances (EURUSD forecast)
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Poor results from US retailers, notably Target, but also Walmart, Lowe’s and Home Depot, highlighted a weakened US consumer. This stoked fears of a larger slowdown and future recession. This on top of US and global inflation worries, and hawkish Central Banks stoked the stagflation fire. Fed speakers, including Chair Powell have … Continued
False breakout higher on US Dollar Index leaves major resistance (DXY forecast) But Euro-US Dollar also has major resistance zone above (EURUSD forecast)