Author

Steve Miley

Having spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and previously 15 years at Merrill Lynch. He has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, Commodities, G10 & EM currencies and Equity Indices & Sectors.
He has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum and is the previous Winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy 2013 and Runner Up in 2014. He was also a previous winner of Best FX Research 2012 whilst at Credit Suisse.
Steve holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.


Intermediate

Yen stays strong in risk off scenario

Last Friday’s very weak German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index data was another blow to the global economic backdrop, with concerns throughout this year of a global slowdown in China, through Asia Pacific and increasingly also in Europe. This has seen riskier asset classes come under negative forces over the past week into latter March, with … Continued

Intermediate

Euro vulnerability

A Euro plunge in the latter part of last week, on Friday driven by very weak German Purchasing Managers’ Index data. Furthermore, the US Dollar has seen broader strength again on Thursday-Friday against many major currencies, after US$ weakness was seen immediately after a far more dovish Federal reserve at their meeting on Wednesday. This … Continued

Intermediate

US equities surge back higher

A surge back higher for the major US equity averages on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hitting new 2019 peaks and five-month highs. This price action has rejected the more negative tone from Wednesday after the Fed indicated a far more dovish tone than anticipated. The main drive to the upside has … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar plunges as the Fed stays dovish

The US Dollar has been weakening across major global currencies over the past 1-2 weeks, mainly driven by two factors. A shift to a more “risk on” environment with global stocks rallying has seen the US$ decline, as it is not in as great a demand as a safe haven. Furthermore, and more notable over … Continued

Intermediate

US equities strong, but cautious ahead of the Fed Meeting

A surge higher again Tuesday by US and global equity averages, in most cases positing new cycle and 2019 highs. This bullish behaviour has reinforced both short- and intermediate-term bullish themes that have dominated this year. The most recent up lift was triggered by the “No Deal” Brexit being taken off the table last week. … Continued

Intermediate

European equity markets head still higher

A broad, global “risk on” scenario” has resurfaced over the past week through mid-March, rejecting the very early March selloff which was a reaction to heightened fears regarding a global economic slowdown. Although no significant positive developments have been made on the US-Sino trade negotiations in the period, the removal of a “No Deal” Brexit … Continued

Intermediate

Pound stays firm after a week of key Brexit votes

An erratic tone for the British Pound last week with multiple Brexit votes somewhat clearing the path forward, with a No Deal Brexit rejected and the UK Government now seeking to extend the Article 50 exit date beyond 29th March. However, a likely third vote on Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal is likely this week … Continued

Intermediate

European averages join US indices with bullish extensions

In yesterday’s report here we highlighted that the main US equity indices have produced aggressive rallies back higher this week, with both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 hitting new highs for 2019. This has been driven by solid US macroeconomic data and an easing of global growth concerns, as the UK has moved away … Continued

Intermediate

US averages lead global stock indices back higher

The major US equity averages have seen an aggressive surge back higher this week, with US macroeconomic data continuing to stay strong, plus global relief as we move away from a No Deal Brexit. Stock markets have shrugged off the earlier March selloffs last week, that wiped out notable supports and likely reflected short- and … Continued

Intermediate

Pound erratic through first Brexit vote, with second vote in focus

An erratic tone for Sterling through the first vote on Prime Minister May’s new Brexit deal, but holding onto a positive technical tone. Again, depending on the outcome today, we have further votes over the next two days on a “no deal” Brexit and to extend the Article 50 leaving date. Again, as in yesterday’s … Continued

Intermediate

Pound strengthens on Brexit deal hopes into first key vote

A very strong rally by the Pound on Monday, with rumours and soundings of some breakthrough in Brexit negotiations. Today sees the first vote on Prime Minister May’s likely new Brexit deal and depending on the outcome, potentially further votes over the next two days on a “no deal” Brexit and to extend the Article … Continued

Intermediate

Equities plunge after US Jobs report, but rebound sets risk higher

A fairly aggressive selloff for US (and also global) equity averages on Friday after a very weak US Employment report, reinforcing a very negative week for US stock markets and also global indices. However, a firm intraday rebound into the close on Friday has avoided a more bearish signal and from a technical analysis perspective, … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD plunge post-ECB

In their meeting on Thursday the European Central Bank (ECB) slashed GDP and inflation forecasts and shifted to a still more dovish stance, with a new round of monetary stimulus for banks. This unsettled European (and global) equity markets, saw a rush into safe haven Bunds (German Government Bonds) and saw a plunge in the … Continued

Intermediate

US equity indices look vulnerable to another correction lower

Despite positive soundings from the US-Sino trade talks over the weekend, early US equity market strength at the very start of this week quickly faded with significant selloff on Monday. Subsequent consolidation activity has been unable to allow the major US equity averages to claim back significant upside territory, leaving markets exposed to further losses. … Continued

Intermediate

Further US Dollar gains sets up USDCAD for a bullish shift

The recent “risk off” move this week as we discussed in yesterday’s report here has seen the US Dollar rally against most major currencies with a flight to quality move in Forex markets, with the US currency seen as a safe haven, On a separate but connected basis, the Canadian Dollar has weakened recently with the … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar rebound sees correction bias for GBPUSD

Monday produced a selloff across global equity markets in a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” type move, after the announcement of solid progress in the US-Sino trade talks. This “risk off” move also encouraged a flight to safety move in Forex markets, with the US Dollar the main beneficiary as a safe haven. For … Continued

Intermediate

Equities march higher into March

Strong advances and closes on Friday to start off March for the major European equity markets, with many benchmark averages hitting new 2019 highs. Over the weekend, positive sounding once more from the US-China trade talks have seen global equity index futures markets already leap higher today (Monday 4th March), with the US equity benchmark … Continued

Intermediate

US equity indices poised for an upside break

In recent articles this week here we have highlighted the ongoing resilience of European equity markets, with both the DAX and DJ Euro STOXX 50 benchmark averages hitting new highs for 2019 over the past 24 hours (see below for the DJ Euro STOXX 50 European benchmark). The major US equity averages, however, have remained … Continued

Intermediate

Pound stays strong

In our report earlier this week on the Pound we highlighted a fundamental strengthening of the UK currency amid rumours that UK Prime Minister Theresa May was going to discuss with the Cabinet a possible delay to the UK’s date for leaving the EU (currently 29th March 2019). Further developments have seen the likelihood of … Continued

Intermediate

Pound strengthens on Brexit delay hopes

A firm push higher for Sterling over the past 24 hours as rumours abound that UK Prime Minister Theresa May is opening up discussions within the Cabinet, on Tuesday 26th February, for a delay to the UK’s date for leaving the EU, currently set at 29th March 2019. This is seen as a positive for … Continued