Author

Steve Miley

Having spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and previously 15 years at Merrill Lynch. He has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, Commodities, G10 & EM currencies and Equity Indices & Sectors.
He has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum and is the previous Winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy 2013 and Runner Up in 2014. He was also a previous winner of Best FX Research 2012 whilst at Credit Suisse.
Steve holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.


Intermediate

Global equity index vulnerabilities

Global financial markets continue to react negatively to global trade war concerns. Asian, European and US equity averages have all rolled back lower this week into late May, damaging rebound effort made from mid-May. This sets the immediate risks lower and starts to resume the negative tone set during the significant selloff in the first … Continued

Intermediate

USDNOK and EURNOK mixed short-term outlooks

USDNOK retains a positive short-term tone within a broader, intermediate-term range. EURNOK has a negative short-term bias, also in a neutral, intermediate-term environment. This tells us more about EURUSD than anything else, that the risks for EURUSD are to the downside. USDNOK upside threat A resilient consolidation for much of May, digesting the later April-early … Continued

Intermediate

US equity averages cling to a positive tone

A consolidation theme has emerged for the major US (and in fact European) equity averages over the past 1-2 weeks, with no significantly new bad news emerging from the ailing US-Sino trade negotiations. This has allowed equity markets to rebound and ease bear forces from the aggressive selloffs seen in the first half of May. … Continued

Intermediate

USDPLN breaking out for renewed bullish theme

Another push higher Tuesday and again into Wednesday, reinforcing the previous tentative breakout from the Ascending Triangle pattern above 3.8594 and 3.8644 resistances, leaving both short- and intermediate-term bull themes intact and aiming higher for Wednesday. The intermediate-term outlook is bullish, sustained by 2019 solid consolidation above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2018 rally. … Continued

Intermediate

Pound stays weak as PM May’s Brexit proposal falls flat

In our Monday report we highlighted ongoing Sterling weakness as Brexit talks between the Conservative and Labour parties have floundered amid the increasingly unstable position of Prime Minister (PM) Theresa May. The GB Pound did try a recovery on Tuesday (21st May) as PM May tried to bring a new version of her Brexit deal, … Continued

Intermediate

USDSEK – Another new cycle high – Technical analysis

Another new cycle high on Tuesday through the earlier May peak at 9.6641, reinforcing the resilient consolidation theme from mid-May above the 9.5301 support level, sustaining both short- and intermediate-term bullish trends and aiming higher again for Tuesday. The April surge through 9.3488 resumed the intermediate-term bull trend, intact above 9.5301. For Today:     We see … Continued

Intermediate

USDSGD surges higher, bull trend intact

A resilient consolidation since mid-May, holding above the trend line support from earlier in May off of 1.3615, to approach last week’s cycle high at 1.3785, sustaining the short- and intermediate-term bull trends and aiming higher again for Tuesday. The intermediate-term bull trend was triggered above 1.3580 back in April and is fully intact whilst … Continued

Intermediate

USDZAR risks are skewed higher

Since mid-May a positive consolidation tone above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 14.326, off of 14.334, sustaining upside forces within the erratic, Triangle consolidation seen since March, but aiming higher for Tuesday. We see an intermediate-term range theme defined as 14.585 to 14.125, but with the bias skewed to the upside. For Today:     We see … Continued

Intermediate

Australian Dollar bear theme quickly resumes – AUDUSD

A rebound for the Australian Dollar on Sunday/Monday after the very unforeseen election result, with a win for the conservative coalition, with Labour previously expected to win. However, from a technical perspective resistance levels remained intact, whilst from a macroeconomic viewpoint, the absence of change was far from a bullish signal for the Australian Dollar. … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD and GBPUSD aim for lower targets in bear trends

With the shift in global financial markets to a “risk off” phase through the first half of May, currency markets have been dominated by a stronger Yen and US Dollar as safe havens, whilst “risk currencies’, such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollars have weakened. In this climate, the Euro has been relatively neutral … Continued

Intermediate

AUDUSD and NZDUSD stay weak (despite equity market rebounds)

May has been dominated by a broad shift across global financial assets to a “risk off” phase, with the major global stock markets and equity averages lower, Bond markets rallying to lower yields, Gold higher. This environment has also seen safe haven currencies strengthening (the Japanese Yen), whilst “risk currencies’, like the Australian and New … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks stabilise and bounce

Over the past two weeks and again earlier this week here we have been spotlighting the negative technical analysis picture for global stock markets, focusing on the major European and US equity averages. This negative outlook has been driven by the escalation of Trade War tensions between the US and China, with new tariffs being … Continued

Intermediate

Pound tracks lower on lack of Brexit progress

For the Pound, the lack of progress on any Brexit agreement between the governing Conservative party and the opposition Labour party since the Brexit leave date was extended until 31st October 2019, has been disappointing for Forex participants. This has seen Sterling weaken over the past week, erasing prior May gains, which were driven by … Continued

Intermediate

Equities plunge as trade war truce is broken by both sides

From the start of May and the Trump threat for higher tariffs on Chinese goods we have been highlighting intermediate-term topping threat for the major European and US equity averages, as highlighted here. As we highlighted in yesterday’s report, further tweets over the weekend from Trump “have again fuelled the fire of market unease”, whilst … Continued

Intermediate

Trump tweets on trade keep downside pressures on Base Metals

Over the past week in numerous articles we have highlighted the impact of growing trade negotiation tensions on equity markets here and Forex markets here, but today we will take a look at the negative impact on Base Metals. Friday saw some respite from the negativity with some positive soundings after the most recent talks, … Continued

Intermediate

US tariff hike on Chinese goods leaves equites vulnerable

This week we have highlighted the overall “risk off” setting for global stock markets here and here and the imposition of a tariff hike on $200 billion of Chinese goods on Friday leaves this negative outlook very much intact. Again, here we spotlight the US benchmark average, the S&P 500. S&P 500 E-Mini downside threat … Continued

Intermediate

Tariff and Trade Fears keep the Yen strong, USDJPY aims lower

In our reports here and here this week we have highlighted a shift to a “risk off” environment across global financial markets, starting on Monday after President Trump’s tweets regarding US tariffs on Chinese goods to be imposed this Friday. Fears continue to grow that this will have a significantly negative impact on the current … Continued

Intermediate

Global equities plunge again, for intermediate-term tops

In a report on Monday we highlighted a more negative tone and threat for the US yardstick index, the S&P 500, but also for global equity markets and averages. This was in the wake of President Trump’s comments on Sunday 5th May, concerning further tariffs on Chinese goods, but also negative moves after the Wednesday … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD – Pound stays firm on Brexit deal hopes

An extremely erratic tone for global equities and to a lesser extent for the US Dollar since early May, shifting back and forth from “risk off” to “risk on” phases through the Fed, US Employment report and developments since the weekend on US-Sino trade negotiations and tariffs. This has left the US$ indecisive in the … Continued

Intermediate

Global equities plunge on trade deal threat – S&P 500

Despite solid rebounds for US and global equity averages on Friday 3rd May after the US Employment report, comments on Sunday 5th May from President Trump, regarding further tariffs on Chinese goods, have sent equity markets south today. This negative price action has reinforced negative price signals after the FOMC statement on Wednesday 1st May … Continued