Author

Steve Miley

Having spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and previously 15 years at Merrill Lynch. He has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, Commodities, G10 & EM currencies and Equity Indices & Sectors.
He has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum and is the previous Winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy 2013 and Runner Up in 2014. He was also a previous winner of Best FX Research 2012 whilst at Credit Suisse.
Steve holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.


Intermediate

FX Explained MacroWatch: w/c 15/07/19

Recap On Wednesday the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress, continuing the dovish tone seen from June, as markets were looking for and had mostly discounted, though three was also apprehension that the tone could be less dovish in the wake of the robust June US Employment report, published in early July. The Chairman … Continued

Intermediate

The Forex Zone – In the wake of a dovish Fed

In today’s Forex Zone we take a look at the day trade prospects for the Major Forex currency pairs in a week in which Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced the market view that the Fed were on a more dovish path. Checkout the key levels to watch and the directional biases here for the … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar weakens, sends USDCAD lower and bearish

A Wednesday selloff for the US$ after the Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell’s Congressional testimony, AND the FOMC Minutes release. The perception of a still very dovish tone from the Fed has seen a weakening US currency. For the USDCAD Forex rate, the US Dollar selloff resumes bearish forces to set n … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks stay vulnerable with spotlight on Chairman Powell

Global equity markets remain nervous after the very strong US Employment reports on Friday. The worry is that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will shift away from a perceived more dovish tone, given the strong data and the resumption of the US-Sino trade talks Furthermore, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is testifying in front of Congress today … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar strength leaves EURUSD vulnerable to further losses

The US Dollar stays strong from last week, after the stronger than projected US Employment report from Friday (July 5th), with fading optimism for an aggressively dovish Federal Reserve. This leaves EURUSD vulnerable to further losses, as we highlighted in our EURUSD Forex article here last week. Key today are be the numerous Speakers from … Continued

Intermediate

FX Explained MacroWatch: w/c 08/07/19

Recap Markets reaction to the G20 Meeting in Japan and agreement for the reopening of trade talks between the China and US. Global asset classes went into a “risk on” phase, with equity markets higher, global indices hitting at least multi-month peaks with the major US stock averages achieving new record highs. “Risk/ Commodity currencies” … Continued

Intermediate

The Forex Zone – All Set for NFP!

In today’s Forex Zone we take a look at the day trade prospects for the Major Forex currency pairs going into the key US Employment report and the always watched, NFP number (but don’t forest the Average Hourly Earnings). Checkout the levels to watch and the views here for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and … Continued

Intermediate

Bullish global equities into the US Independence Day Holiday

The three major US equity averages hit all time highs on Wednesday into the US Independence Day holiday today, 4th July. This reinforces the short- and intermediate-term “risk on” phases being seen across global financial markets as highlighted in our article earlier this week. US Treasury Bonds continue to probe to multi-year highs (so multi-year … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD plunge and rebound failure keeps risks lower

A rebound failure Tuesday from just below our 1.1325 resistance (back from 1.1322) after Monday’s very aggressive selloff through various supports as low as 1.1315 (to 1.1273), to keep risks lower for Wednesday. We see an intermediate-term bull trend since the push above 1.1348 For Today: We see a downside bias for 1.1273/69; break here … Continued

Intermediate

European equities surge after US-China trade truce

A strong advance for global stock markets Monday after positive geopolitical events at the weekend. The EURO STOXX 50 pushed through a key peak at 3487 to re-energize an intermediate-term bull theme. Furthermore, despite significant geopolitical developments over the past weekend impacting markets Monday, this week still has much to offer as can be seen … Continued

Intermediate

The Forex Zone – Forex Poised into G20. Are you ready?

Here in The Forex Zone we take a look at the day trade prospects for the Major Forex currency pairs; EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDJPY. EURUSD upside threats A resilient consolidation tone Thursday after Wednesday’s rebound rejected Tuesday’s spike lower with a recovery from new support at 1.1343, sustaining upside forces from Monday’s … Continued

Intermediate

AUDUSD stays firm into G20 with reports of a US-Sino trade truce

The Australian Dollar is often viewed in the Forex world as a barometer of risk appetite. The rebound from mid-June has partially reflected the US Dollar weakness from a more dovish Fed, but also a firmer Australian Dollar, driven partially by higher Base Metals prices. Also, reports of a possible trade war truce at the … Continued

Intermediate

Euro stays strong, despite US$ rebound effort – EURUSD focus

The US Dollar has tried to rebound over the past 24 hours, as Fed Speakers have tried to curb market enthusiasm for more aggressive rate cuts. However, the US$ weakness from last week which push the EURUSD Forex Rate through important resistances leaves the bias for EURUSD to the upside. Clearly, this weekend’s G20 summit … Continued

Intermediate

European equity markets wobble and aim lower (near term)

European and UK equity markets are seeing very short-term downside correction themes emerging over the past 2-3 sessions. This has been a reaction to a combination of; bullish fatigue from June rallies the proximity of notable resistance factors the strengthening of the Euro, particularly EURUSD Although the intermediate-term outlook for the major averages, including the … Continued

Intermediate

The Forex Zone: US Dollar Weakness

The second edition of a regular feature, FX Explained in The Forex Zone. We will take a video run through of the Major Forex pairs; EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDJPY. EURUSD upside risks A Thursday extension above the 1.1289/1.1304 resistance area to build on Wednesday’s surge above 1.1250/53 resistances, to reinforce the erratic, … Continued

Intermediate

Pound recovery aims GBPUSD for key resistance at 1.2814

A rebound for the GBPUSD Forex rate this week, but the midweek surge has primarily been driven by broad US Dollar weakness. US$ losses have been a reaction to the Fed Meeting on Wednesday (19th June 2019), where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opened the door to a rate cut, expected in July, with … Continued

Intermediate

AUDUSD and NZDUSD rebounds question bear trends

Positive comments from US President Trump regarding a likely meeting with the Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 Meeting in Osaka, Japan. This sparked hopes of a resumption of trade negotiations, increasing investor risk appetite and sent riskier assets higher, with global stock indices posting firm gains on Tuesday. Furthermore, the “risk currencies”, the … Continued

Intermediate

UK benchmark index, the FTSE 100, aiming higher

Global equity averages have retained their short-term positive outlooks from the strong rallies at the start of June, consolidating these recovery efforts over the past week. The UK benchmark stock average, the FTSE 100 is in similarly positive mode, but also bolstered by Sterling weakness against the US Dollar and Euro (GBOUSD low and EURGBP … Continued

Intermediate

DAX upside threats intact

A Friday dip below 12061.5 support and then a firm rebound from 12047.5 to sustain upside forces from the entire June recovery rally and keep risks higher Monday. The June push above 12123.5 set an intermediate-term range seen as 11595 to 12318.5, BUT with risks now for a bullish shift. For Today: We see an … Continued

Intermediate

FX Explained in The Forex Zone

Today is the first edition of a regular feature, FX Explained in The Forex Zone, where we will take a video run through of the Major FX currency pairs; EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD. EURUSD holding onto a positive tone A further setback Thursday for a more convincing push below 1.1289/88 supports and … Continued

Intermediate

FAANG stocks in the spotlight

In today’s report we are going to take a technical analysis look at the FAANG shares, Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) and Google (GOOG, Alphabet). Facebook (FB) A firm June rebound from above a key March support at 159.28 (from 160.24) has neutralised the intermediate-term bear trend that was set up with … Continued

Intermediate

Intermediate-term risks for Platinum are bearish

A plunge lower for Platinum, following the “risk off” moves seen across global asset classes in May, then a rebound effort in June, again alongside “risk on” moves seen elsewhere. However, the technical damage inflicted by the May bear move leaves an intermediate-term bear theme intact, whilst below the 833.3/838.8, chart/ Fibonacci retracement resistances. Intermediate-term … Continued

Intermediate

Nike intermediate-term bear theme eased; June risks for a bullish shift

A strong June rally for Nike driven by two bull gaps interspersed by a surging rally, to reverse above the down trendline from the April, rejecting an intermediate-term bear theme, now for an intermediate-term range. Despite an intermediate-term range, the threat is skewed higher, with risks for a challenge to the May swing peak at … Continued

Intermediate

European equity averages send intermediate-term positive signals

Global equity averages have continued their upside path through June, despite the fact that the US-Sino Trade War remains in place, BUT a more dovish tone from even hawkish Federal Reserve Speakers has allowed for strong recoveries in June. This recovery theme has been assisted by recent progress in US-Mexico trade talks, avoiding tariffs by … Continued

Intermediate

Coca Cola (KO) hits all time high

Coca Cola (KO) has surged through May and into early June. This has seen a push this week through the Q4 2018 high at 50.84 to a new all-time high. This has seen Coca Cola significantly outperformed the S&P 500 and also the Consumer Staples sector. From a technical analysis standpoint this sees both short- … Continued

Intermediate

A focus on Swiss Franc Crosses (CADCHF and AUDCHF)

In this article we are going to take a look at the intermediate-term outlooks for two “risk” currencies, the Australian and Canadian Dollars versus the safe haven currency, the Swiss Franc. Bear trends in CADCHF and AUDCHF are a result of the current, broad “risk off” environment across global financial markets, in the wake of … Continued

Intermediate

Spotlight on Pound Crosses (GBPSGD and GBPCHF)

Given ongoing concerns regarding a “no deal” Brexit or a snap UK General Election, the Pound (GBP) continues to slide lower against many major currencies, not just against the US Dollar (the much-watched Cable Forex Rate, GBPUSD). These concerns have been heightened by the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May and a leadership contest for … Continued

Intermediate

Danish Krone tracking Euro weakness. USDDKK aiming higher

A probe higher Thursday close to the cycle peak at 6.7235, reinforcing bull forces from both the recent rebound from 6.6593 and the positive consolidation theme throughout May, which includes the spike up to this peak, to keep risks higher for Friday The intermediate-term outlook is bullish, from the entire erratic up trend of 2019 … Continued

Intermediate

Hungarian Forint stays weak in “risk off” phase – USDHUF and EURHUF

Global financial markets are still within a “risk off” environment, with ongoing fears from trade war concerns, despite no significant negative developments recently. Stock markets in Asian, Europe and the US have sold off again this week, with the European averages making (or poised to make) more bearish statements, as highlighted here in our report … Continued

Intermediate

European equity averages bear threats

Ongoing threats of a prolonged “risk off” phase with developing trade war concerns have kept global equity markets contained during recent rebounds. Moreover, renewed weakness this week has seen the US equity averages post bearish signals, with the S&P 500 pushing below the prior May low. Today we spotlight the major European and UK benchmark … Continued

Intermediate

USDMXN negative consolidation theme, downside bias

An erratic, but overall negative consolidation theme has dominated May, with a very cautious tone going towards month-end, but the bias remains for a challenge lower and we see downside risks into Tuesday. On an intermediate-term basis, we see a broader range as 19.318 to 18.747, BUT with the skewed risks for an intermediate-term bearish … Continued

Intermediate

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) crosses stay intermediate-term bearish

A spotlight in this report on the NZD cross currency rates, focusing on the New Zealand Dollar against the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar. NZDJPY, NZDCHF and NZDCAD all stay bearish on an intermediate-term basis. NZDJPY sitting at cycle low Despite a small rebound on Friday after another new cycle low on Thursday, … Continued

Intermediate

Global equity index vulnerabilities

Global financial markets continue to react negatively to global trade war concerns. Asian, European and US equity averages have all rolled back lower this week into late May, damaging rebound effort made from mid-May. This sets the immediate risks lower and starts to resume the negative tone set during the significant selloff in the first … Continued

Intermediate

USDNOK and EURNOK mixed short-term outlooks

USDNOK retains a positive short-term tone within a broader, intermediate-term range. EURNOK has a negative short-term bias, also in a neutral, intermediate-term environment. This tells us more about EURUSD than anything else, that the risks for EURUSD are to the downside. USDNOK upside threat A resilient consolidation for much of May, digesting the later April-early … Continued

Intermediate

US equity averages cling to a positive tone

A consolidation theme has emerged for the major US (and in fact European) equity averages over the past 1-2 weeks, with no significantly new bad news emerging from the ailing US-Sino trade negotiations. This has allowed equity markets to rebound and ease bear forces from the aggressive selloffs seen in the first half of May. … Continued

Intermediate

USDPLN breaking out for renewed bullish theme

Another push higher Tuesday and again into Wednesday, reinforcing the previous tentative breakout from the Ascending Triangle pattern above 3.8594 and 3.8644 resistances, leaving both short- and intermediate-term bull themes intact and aiming higher for Wednesday. The intermediate-term outlook is bullish, sustained by 2019 solid consolidation above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2018 rally. … Continued

Intermediate

Pound stays weak as PM May’s Brexit proposal falls flat

In our Monday report we highlighted ongoing Sterling weakness as Brexit talks between the Conservative and Labour parties have floundered amid the increasingly unstable position of Prime Minister (PM) Theresa May. The GB Pound did try a recovery on Tuesday (21st May) as PM May tried to bring a new version of her Brexit deal, … Continued

Intermediate

USDSEK – Another new cycle high – Technical analysis

Another new cycle high on Tuesday through the earlier May peak at 9.6641, reinforcing the resilient consolidation theme from mid-May above the 9.5301 support level, sustaining both short- and intermediate-term bullish trends and aiming higher again for Tuesday. The April surge through 9.3488 resumed the intermediate-term bull trend, intact above 9.5301. For Today:     We see … Continued

Intermediate

USDSGD surges higher, bull trend intact

A resilient consolidation since mid-May, holding above the trend line support from earlier in May off of 1.3615, to approach last week’s cycle high at 1.3785, sustaining the short- and intermediate-term bull trends and aiming higher again for Tuesday. The intermediate-term bull trend was triggered above 1.3580 back in April and is fully intact whilst … Continued

Intermediate

USDZAR risks are skewed higher

Since mid-May a positive consolidation tone above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 14.326, off of 14.334, sustaining upside forces within the erratic, Triangle consolidation seen since March, but aiming higher for Tuesday. We see an intermediate-term range theme defined as 14.585 to 14.125, but with the bias skewed to the upside. For Today:     We see … Continued

Intermediate

Australian Dollar bear theme quickly resumes – AUDUSD

A rebound for the Australian Dollar on Sunday/Monday after the very unforeseen election result, with a win for the conservative coalition, with Labour previously expected to win. However, from a technical perspective resistance levels remained intact, whilst from a macroeconomic viewpoint, the absence of change was far from a bullish signal for the Australian Dollar. … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD and GBPUSD aim for lower targets in bear trends

With the shift in global financial markets to a “risk off” phase through the first half of May, currency markets have been dominated by a stronger Yen and US Dollar as safe havens, whilst “risk currencies’, such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollars have weakened. In this climate, the Euro has been relatively neutral … Continued

Intermediate

AUDUSD and NZDUSD stay weak (despite equity market rebounds)

May has been dominated by a broad shift across global financial assets to a “risk off” phase, with the major global stock markets and equity averages lower, Bond markets rallying to lower yields, Gold higher. This environment has also seen safe haven currencies strengthening (the Japanese Yen), whilst “risk currencies’, like the Australian and New … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks stabilise and bounce

Over the past two weeks and again earlier this week here we have been spotlighting the negative technical analysis picture for global stock markets, focusing on the major European and US equity averages. This negative outlook has been driven by the escalation of Trade War tensions between the US and China, with new tariffs being … Continued

Intermediate

Pound tracks lower on lack of Brexit progress

For the Pound, the lack of progress on any Brexit agreement between the governing Conservative party and the opposition Labour party since the Brexit leave date was extended until 31st October 2019, has been disappointing for Forex participants. This has seen Sterling weaken over the past week, erasing prior May gains, which were driven by … Continued

Intermediate

Equities plunge as trade war truce is broken by both sides

From the start of May and the Trump threat for higher tariffs on Chinese goods we have been highlighting intermediate-term topping threat for the major European and US equity averages, as highlighted here. As we highlighted in yesterday’s report, further tweets over the weekend from Trump “have again fuelled the fire of market unease”, whilst … Continued

Intermediate

Trump tweets on trade keep downside pressures on Base Metals

Over the past week in numerous articles we have highlighted the impact of growing trade negotiation tensions on equity markets here and Forex markets here, but today we will take a look at the negative impact on Base Metals. Friday saw some respite from the negativity with some positive soundings after the most recent talks, … Continued

Intermediate

US tariff hike on Chinese goods leaves equites vulnerable

This week we have highlighted the overall “risk off” setting for global stock markets here and here and the imposition of a tariff hike on $200 billion of Chinese goods on Friday leaves this negative outlook very much intact. Again, here we spotlight the US benchmark average, the S&P 500. S&P 500 E-Mini downside threat … Continued