The US Dollar stays weak in the ongoing “risk on” environment. “Risk on” is being driven by Vaccine hopes Biden bounce Improving global data The Euro has pushed to a new multi-month peak versus the US Dollar (EURUSD forecast) The Pound is looking at progress at the EU-UK trade talks for further upside gains against … Continued
Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in-Chief for FXExplained.co.uk, the Academic Dean for The London School of Wealth Management, plus Senior Investment Advisor at Kylin Prime Capital.
At FXExplained.co.uk Steve is the Editor-in-Chief, alongside producing numerous articles for the site. The ability to be able to reach out to a wide, global audience with his own analysis and also assist and nurture other authors in their creative process makes this a role that Steve values deeply.
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The Market Chartist
The Market Chartist was founded in 2012 and provides daily technical analysis reports, with written commentary and key support/ resistance levels to an institutional, professional and retail client base. The 30+ daily reports include European, UK and US Bonds & Equity Index Futures, G10 currencies, UK Natural Gas, TTF Gas, German Power, EUA Emissions and LME Base Metals.
As The Market Chartist, Steve has won many awards from the Technical Analyst Magazine. He was the 2016 & 2013 Winner (plus 2014 Runner Up) for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy and winner of Best FX Research & Strategy in 2012. He was also a finalist in the Technical Analyst of the Year category each year for 2012-2017.
Other Current Positions
Steve is also the Academic Dean for The London School of Wealth Management, a role he really enjoys. He appreciates the opportunity to be able to educate a diverse array of students in all aspects of the financial market’s world. Steve says “to be able to be a part of transforming an individual’s life through education is truly a privilege and very exciting”.
In his role as Senior Investment Advisor at Kylin Prime Capital, Steve supports and advises the investment management team by employing his extensive fundamental market experience, alongside his wealth of technical analysis knowledge. This allows him to add significant value to investment decisions.
Steve also writes extensively for numerous financial markets sites including: FxStreet.com, TechnicalAnalyst.co.uk, InsideFutures.com, BarChart.com, StockTwits.com, StockBrokers.com, AskTraders.com and Investing.com.
Previous to this, Steve was also a Senior Lecturer at The London Academy of Trading where he fully began his journey into the world of education. It was here that he honed his skills as a lecture and mentor in the world of financial markets education.
Vast Technical Analysis Experience
Steve has also helped technical analysis push into a new era in his previous role as Director at Vega Insight. Vega Insight is a relatively new company with a specific focus on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in global commodity and broader financial markets, with special focus on Energy. In his role Steve was responsible for the technical analysis inputs to the Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning.
Steve spent 2009-2012 as a Director in the Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse. Steve managed the FX division, responsible for the reports, forecasts and bank wide research for G10 & Emerging Markets currencies. In this role he also covered all major asset classes including Equity Indices, Rates & Credit, plus Commodities.
Steve spent most of his career at Merrill Lynch for 15 years from 1994-2009. The last ten years was as a Vice President in the research department as a technical analyst, responsible for daily reports, client presentations, plus in-house and client education programs. Prior to this, Steve was in the Fixed Income derivatives sales team where he managed the Italian Futures desk (BTP and EuroLira) on LIFFE (the London International Financial Futures Exchange). He was responsible for a four-man sales team, who consistently produced high volume of sales from both in-house and external clients.
He is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Master’s degree in politics, Philosophy & Economics from Oxford University (Lincoln College).
A strong tone, with a dip and a rebound on Monday to end November for European (and global) equity averages. This “risk on” theme remains from vaccine hopes and the Biden bounce. Tuesday has already seen very strong Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, with further global data due today. European averages have managed … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A fairly quiet week on the macroeconomic and geopolitical front, with the holiday shortened session in the US on Thursday and Friday because of Thanksgiving. The main development was on the US political side, as the Presidential transition of power has started properly, and although the Trump administration continues dispute the election … Continued
A solid consolidation tone since midweek, but November strength seen across the major “commodity” or “risk” currencies (the New Zealand, Australian and Canadian Dollars) remains intact. The “risk on” price action is still being assisted by: Pfizer, Moderna and Astra Zeneca/ Oxford COVID-19 vaccine hopes Extension of the Biden bounce Mixed, but marginally positive economic … Continued
A firm tone seen for the main global stock indices this week, throughout November and also over the past 24 hours. The solid “risk on” theme is still been driven by: The ongoing Biden bounce, reinforced by the start of the transition of power The appointment of Janet Yellen as US Treasury Secretary The announcement … Continued
A weaker US Dollar still the dominant Forex markets theme with the ongoing “risk on” environment. “Risk on” is being driven by the start of the US Presidency transition of power, the appointment of Janet Yellen as US Treasury Secretary, plus from the three vaccine announcements in November. The Euro has pushed above 1.1900 and … Continued
A strong rally for European (and global) equity indices to start the week with more positive news from Astra Zeneca/ Oxford University on their COVID-19 vaccine trials. This “risk on” theme was also helped by Janet Yellen’s appointment as Treasury Secretary by US President-elect Joe Biden. Plus, the positive outlook for stock averages has been … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The announcement last Monday from Moderna that their COVID-19 vaccine produced very positive trial results sustained the prior “risk on” theme, evident after the similar announcement from Pfizer the Monday before. This “risk on” tone was further reinforced by another positive statement from the Astra Zeneca/ Oxford University trial in the week. … Continued
A consolidation theme over the past couple of days for the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars, the major “risk currencies” We see this as a digestion with the core “risk on” theme intact The “risk on” outlook driven by: The Pfizer, Moderna and Astra Zeneca/ Oxford COVID-19 vaccine announcements Congress looking to discuss the … Continued
A dip across major global equity averages over the past 24 hours, but the underlying theme stays bullish from the very strong November rallies. The ongoing “risk on” theme has been driven by: The announcement from Moderna and Pfizer of very positive COVID-19 vaccine trial results Lockdown measures taking hold in Europe, with falling/ plateauing … Continued
A weaker US Dollar tone through November remains the dominant short-term theme for Forex markets in a “risk on” environment. This is being driven by both the Biden Presidential election victory in the US and the positive news from both Pfizer and Moderna from their respective COVID-19 vaccine trials The Euro has rejected recent weakness … Continued
A solid rally for European (and global) chare markets to begin the week with news from Moderna that their COVID-19 vaccine trials had been extremely successful with a 95% success rate This on the back of similar results last week from Pfizer for their vaccine European stock indices were higher Monday with this news, though … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The announcement last Monday from Pfizer that their COVID-19 vaccine had produced extremely positive trial results and is at a late stage of development saw the “risk on” theme reinforced. Value and “old economy” stocks surged higher on anticipation of a broad economic recovery, whilst “new era” tech stocks underperformed. This was … Continued
A corrective setback for the major “risk currencies” from the middle of this week, for the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars. We see this as corrective in nature, with the underlying “risk on” theme intact, driven by: The Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine announcement A Joe Biden victory An expected split Congress, the Republicans likely holding … Continued
Last week we headlined our report “Shares surge, looking for more” and the markets have certainly delivered more, lots more! The ongoing “risk on” theme has been driven by: The announcement from Pfizer of a very impressive 90% success rate for their CIOVID-19 vaccine Confirmation of a Joe Biden victory A probable split Congress, with … Continued
A broadly weaker US Dollar in the wake of Joe Biden US Presidential election victory and the positive news from the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine trials This activity has seen a further move to a “risk on” theme and a move away from the “safe haven” currencies, the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar. The Euro … Continued
A strong advance to start Monday with the declaration at the weekend of Joe Biden as President-elect. This saw global equity markets start the week on a very positive footing, with European averages gapping higher. Then, the breaking news from Pfizer that their COVID-19 vaccine trials had been extremely successful with a 90% success rate … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The US election took centre stage on Tuesday and remained there all week and still now, with the Presidential vote extremely close. Joe Biden will be the next US President. But the Republicans look likely to hold the Senate, meaning a likely mixed government. The threat of a difficult transition of power … Continued
An aggressive advance has been seen across the major “risk currencies” (Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars) since the US election results started to come in. You can learn more about “risk currencies” in our report on “Which Forex markets and currencies should I trade?” This has been a reaction to a global shift to … Continued
Only last week we headlined our report “Shares plunge, more to come”. What a difference a week can make in trading! Despite stock markets plunging lower at the end of October, a strong recovery rally at the start of this week was extended on Wednesday as the partial results came in from the US presidential … Continued
A stronger US Dollar theme so far in the wake of US election results as they are still coming in, with the outcome still too close to call. This has likely reflected a “flight to quality”, with investors and traders looking for “safe havens”, given the threat of a disputed election result. This US Dollar … Continued
A rebound to start the week by European and global stock indices, maybe some position squaring ahead of the US election. In addition, with Biden holding his strong lead in the polls over the weekend, markets are looking for a smooth transition of power, now comfortable with a Democrat victory and even a blue sweep. … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Surging cases of COVID-19 cases in Europe and the U.K, alongside growing hospitalisations and deaths have seen far more aggressive lockdown measures imposed across the continent. In addition, spiking cases across the US have increased concerns that national and global economic recoveries will quickly falter. The failure in the US to reach … Continued
The major “risk currencies”, the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars have sold off against the US Dollar, as global equities have plunged, renewing the correlation we would expected, which had to some extent broken down in October (as we looked at in our article here last week). The still further aggressive shift to a … Continued
Only last week we headlined our report “Stocks setting up for a plunge” and the aggressive selloff seen this week has produced a clear and forceful shift to both short- and intermediate-term bear themes across global share averages Once more, this has been driven by: Surging COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths in Europe. Far more … Continued
A mixed US Dollar theme over the past 24 hours across Forex markets, echoing the more indecisive tone over the past 1-2 weeks as the correlation with stock indices has shifted. We still see a positive technical tone and upside risks for EURUSD having last week neutralised the Head & Shoulders topping pattern with the … Continued
An even more aggressive “risk off” over the past 24-36 hours, reinforcing the negative, “risk off” signals from mid-October. This is being driven by Surging COVID-19 cases across Europe and more aggressive lockdowns measures across the continent More aggressively rising cases of the coronavirus in the US Diminishing chances of a US pandemic economic relief … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments COVID-19 cases continue to surge across Europe and in the US too. In European and the UK this has surge in cases and now hospitalisations has seen regional and national lockdown measures become more severe. Democrats and Republicans have not reached agreement on a new COVID-19 economic relief package, with diminishing chances … Continued
A breakdown in the correlation between the US Dollar and stock indices this week has seen the US currency weakening as global share averages have signalled a more vulnerable outlook. Therefore, the major “risk currencies”; the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars have moved higher versus the US Dollar, as equities are looking more negative, … Continued
A significant move lower for global stock averages over the past 24-36 hours, as markets are moving even more towards a “risk off” theme. This is being driven by: Spiking COVID-19 cases in Europe, alongside more severe lockdowns. Rising levels of COVID-19 in the US. Fading hopes of a US economic relief package ahead of … Continued
A mixed, but broadly more negative US Dollar theme has been seen over the past 12-24 hours across Forex markets. This has been highlighted by a strengthening of the Euro against the US Dollar and a more positive technical tone upside risks for the EURUSD forecast, as we explore below. However, the Pound remains a … Continued
The global financial markets “risk on” theme has been damaged since last Thursday’s selloffs across global stock indices. Despite Friday rebounds, Monday has seen a renewal of negative forces attempting to resume the larger bear theme from September. “Risk off” is being driven by: Fading hopes of a US economic relief package before the US … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments COVID-19 cases continue to surge across Europe and in the U.K. with both regional and national and lockdown measures at their most stringent in many places since the first wave of the pandemic in March/ April. With insufficient progress between the EU and UK in their trade talks, Boris Johnson has told … Continued
A significantly strong US Dollar theme has been seen over the past 24 hours across Forex markets as global financial markets shifted more notably to a “risk off” theme, with global stock indices plunging lower (particularly in Europe). This has been driven by: A surge in COVID-19 cases throughout Europe, mounting hospitalisations, leading to regional … Continued
A slight dip lower for global stock averages over the past 24-48 hours, as the “risk on” theme has wobbled. This has been due to fading hopes of a US economic relief package ahead of the US election. Here we look at the technical analysis for the US and UK benchmark averages, the S&P 500 … Continued
A more positive US Dollar theme has been seen over the past 24-48 hours across Forex markets as global financial markets flipped to “risk off” mode, as global stock indices have dipped after strong rallies. However, we continue to see an underlying “risk on” theme driven by: Prospects for a US economic relief package before … Continued
The global “risk on” theme remains intact. Stock averages continue their October march higher, recouping September losses. “Risk on” is still being driven by: Hopes of a US economic relief package. Short-term positivity seen from a Biden Presidential victory and Democrat congressional wins Hopes of a UK-EU trade deal Here we look at the pan-European … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Republicans and Democrats have still been unable to come to an agreement on a new economic relief package, but hope remains, which has helped the “risk on” theme this past week. This was despite President Trump at one point stating that a deal would NOT be done before the election. The other … Continued
A still more positive outlook for EURUSD into mid-October, still rejecting the Head & Shoulders top pattern from September, as we spotlighted previously. A more negative US Dollar theme is still resuming as global financial markets are back in “risk on” mode, with global stock indices basing and posting solid recoveries from late September into … Continued
In our last report on the S&P 500 at the end of September we highlighted the rebound for this index and global equity markets. The Subsequent price action has seen strong recoveries across global equity markets, particularly in the US, driven by renewed hopes of a US economic relief package before the US election. In … Continued
A positive tone for the Pound this week, building on the recovery effort seen for early October and from late September This has partly been a reflection of the broader “risk on” theme that has seen global stock markets higher over the same period and the US Dollar broadly lower (as a safe haven currency). … Continued
Global equity indices have rallied over the past 24 hours, as the broader “risk on” theme from latter September continues. The more recent advance has been assisted by US President Trump leaving hospital alongside hopes for a new US economic relief package. European stock averages have also benefited, recouping losses from late last week. Here … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The end of last week saw huge geopolitical news as President Trump announced that he had tested positive for COVID-19 and as a precautionary measure was hospitalised over the weekend. As we look at in more details below, in our “global financial market developments” section, markets briefly went into a “risk off” … Continued
The US Dollar has renewed its slightly more negative theme this week, which has seen most major currencies rally in late September and early October against the greenback. This has been in reaction to global equity markets trying to rebound from late September towards more of a “risk on” phase. A slight “risk off” shift … Continued
A more positive tone from EURUSD into the end of September, trying to reject the Head & Shoulders top pattern see earlier in the month, as we highlighted in our report last week. The US Dollar strength that was a key theme from mid-September faded into the end of the month, with a more negative USD … Continued
A rebound for global equity markets since last Friday and into late September. This has eased the bigger picture bearish pressures from the September selloffs. Modest setbacks were seen Tuesday, however, and also overnight in the wake of the US Presidential debate (which again raised concerns about the possible transfer of power). Here we view … Continued
A more positive tone for the Pound to start this week, for now rejecting the more negative tone we highlighted in our report here last week. The broader “risk off” theme has eased as global stock indices have rebounded since Friday which has seen a slight weakening of the US Dollar. The Pound also benefited … Continued
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Another week of hesitant equity markets, with early weakness, then indecision and finally an end of week rebound, but which failed to have any real positive impact. This comes in the wake of growing COVID-19 cases across Europe and the U.K., with many countries experiencing record daily and weekly numbers of new … Continued
A still negative EURUSD tone into latter September having confirmed a Head & Shoulders top pattern (see more details and chart below). US Dollar strength has been a key theme from mid-September and has accelerated this week as a global “risk off” theme takes hold, with global equity indices lower and looking weak. This global … Continued
A further plunge in global equity markets this week as we highlighted on Tuesday with our article on the DAX here. After Monday’s plunge and then a bounce Tuesday, the “risk off” theme has fully resumed through midweek. This is being driven by a combination of: Surging European and UK COVID-19 cases New lockdown/ restriction … Continued