Current Market Analysis

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout event last week was the US CPI data on Wednesday, which came in much higher than expected at 6.2% year-over-year, its highest level since 1990. This fuelled ongoing, underlying inflation concerns, seeing global stock indices setback (then bounce), whilst global bonds pushed to higher yields. Tesla saw a steep decline … Continued

US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast)  Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast)  Partial profits in order on the Aussie  (AUDUSD forecast) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) met on Wednesday and as expected announced the start of tapering their monthly bond purchases by USD 15 billion later in November and December. However, the FOMC statement again highlighted an expectation for inflation to moderate and signalled no rush to tighten monetary policy. Markets … Continued

US Dollar Index stats at major resistance  (DXY forecast)  Pound threatens to breakdown (GBPUSD forecast)  Major bear trap lies below on Euro-US Dollar (EURUSD forecast) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The busiest week of the US earnings season saw mixed earnings from Big Tech, with positives from Facebook, Microsoft and Google, and a positive announcement for Tesla, but significant misses from Apple, and Amazon. Further progress was seen on Biden’s proposed social infrastructure bill Despite losses after the Apple and Amazon releases, … Continued

Major positive on the US Dollar Index, but needs confirmation (DXY forecast)  Negative on Euro-US Dollar (again, needing confirmation, EURUSD forecast) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Earnings season continued in the US last week, with positive earnings surprises across sectors, reinforcing solid results from the financial sector the prior week. But Snapchat parent Snap did disappoint on Friday, dragging the tech sector and Nasdaq lower to end the week. Fiscal stimulus hopes also helped the “risk on” theme … Continued

Negatives appear on Cable (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie and Kiwi also post negatives  (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) US Dollar-Yen uptrend ends  (USDJPY forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Although the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday did indicate that bond purchase tapering is likely to begin before the end of 2021, the minutes also revealed that Fed officials are currently looking to keep interest rates at or near zero for the next couple of years. Data has suggested that both supply … Continued

US Dollar Index remains trapped (DXY forecast) Euro-Dollar posts rare positive pattern (EURUSD forecast) US Dollar-Yen accelerates up (USDJPY forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Positive soundings on the US debt ceiling talks have helped riskier assets (such as stocks/ equities) in early October. The “risk off” theme that struck global financial markets in September has started to reverse back to a “risk on” theme, despite the extension to higher yields across global bond markets (led by … Continued

US Dollar Index goes sideways (DXY forecast) Euro-Dollar has major support below (EURUSD forecast) US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast) Positive appears on Euro-Pound ahead of major support (EURGBP forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The “risk off” theme that had struck global financial markets earlier in September resumed into month-end as inflation concerns returned, alongside higher yield pressures. Global stock indices reversed previous recovery rebounds, looking technically vulnerable. Debt ceiling and stimulus uncertainty are also weighing on riskier assets. Although the federal government passed a short-term … Continued

The US Dollar Index stalled in a major resistance zone and posts negative meaning profits taken on long positions.  US Dollar-Yen posts false breakout up and builds reversal

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The “risk off” mode that has gripped global financial markets in September due to growth and inflation concerns was intensified early last week with Evergrande contagion worries. However, these contagions fears have eased through the week, as have the growth and inflation worries, which have seen global stock indices post robust recovery … Continued

Aussie holds support  (AUDUSD forecast) A negative on USD-CAD  (USDCAD forecast) A major “Bear Trap” lies below on the Euro-Dollar (EURUSD forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Ongoing growth and inflation concerns have left global financial markets in “risk off” mode, and still vulnerable to further erratic, “risk off” moves. Growth concerns have been sparked by three main factors: ongoing supply chain worries fuelling inflation fears Inflation worries putting the spotlight on Central Banks and in particular the Fed … Continued

US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast)  Euro breaks down, but futures has a major support nearby  (EURUSD forecast)  Aussie drifts down  (AUDUSD forecast)  Dollar-CAD breaks up  (USDCAD forecast) 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The ongoing global spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant and the concerns regarding the new Mu variant, have impacted on growth expectations. In addition, ongoing supply chain worries have continued to fuel inflation fears and accentuate growth concerns. These factors leave global financial markets vulnerable to erratic, “risk off” moves. On Thursday … Continued

US Dollar send positive signal (DXY forecast) Euro signals negative (EURUSD forecast) Aussie negative statement (AUDUSD forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout economic event last week was the August US Employment report on Friday, which was disappointing, the headline Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data missed expectations, posting at 235K, with 750K expected. Prior monthly gains were revised higher though, whilst the Unemployment Rate fell to a pandemic-era low at 5.2%. Global Purchasing Managers … Continued

Euro stalls ahead of major upside target US Dollar Index major support looms below Kiwi reaches next upside target

Reversals in Aussie and Kiwi (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts)  NZDUSD is still below its breakdown point having signalled a false breakdown 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout economic event last week was the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, but it ended up as a non-event, as Fed Chair Powell did not signal anything different than previously communicated with respect to removing policy accommodation. The chaos, unrest and terrorist activity in Afghanistan has had muted impact on global … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Last week, global financial markets were still digesting the big event of the prior week with the US Federal Reserve signalling a more hawkish tone than the financial markets had anticipated. Fed officials this past week have sought to calm markets and allay fears that they were about to start to tighten … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The big event of the past week was US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision and statement on Wednesday. The FOMC dot plot chart at least two quarter-point rate increases in 2023. This was a more hawkish tone than the US and global financial markets had anticipated, causing significant price … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Another quiet week in financial markets up until Friday, despite a busy data calendar. Markets kicked into life after Friday’s US Employment report, which saw 559K jobs added in May, which was slightly worse than expectations. Over the weekend, the G7 agreed a global minimum corporate tax of 15%. Global financial market … Continued

Dollar Index holds key weekly support Key support rises on the Euro Negative appears on Dollar Yen Negative also seen on Pound. Tug of war in Dollar-CAD, awaiting the breakout.

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A quiet week in financial markets with muted central bank activity and a relatively light data calendar. The standout on Wednesday was a more hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). This helped the New Zealand Dollar post firm gains across the Forex board. Cryptocurrencies remained volatile, with Bitcoin … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Inflation concerns remain, after the recent spike in US CPI data. The Fed Minutes on Wednesday highlighted an improving US economy but still far from the Fed’s goals, this did not have a significant impact on global financial markets. Tensions in Gaza have eased with an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced. The Indian COVID … Continued

Dollar Index repeatedly holds final critical support (DXY forecast)  Negative on Dollar-Yen (USDJPY forecast)  And on Kiwi (NZDUSD forecast)  These need to be confirmed by a breakdown through support

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The US Consumer Price Index released on Wednesday came in at 4.2% from a year ago and 0.8% from March, significantly higher than expected. This data heightened US and wider inflation concerns, which had already spooked Big Tech stocks through mid-May, pulling broader equity indices lower. Tensions in Israel have had little … Continued

US Dollar fails at key resistance Euro holds support Aussie and Kiwi need to confirm fresh negatives

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US President Biden announced his $1.8 trillion American Families Plan (human infrastructure) to complement the $2 trillion infrastructure plan announced at the end of March. Earnings season has continued with more positives, with Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook and Tesla all beating estimates (though the price action on these stocks has not been … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US President Biden announced a potentially significant increase in Capital Gains Tax (CGT) rates, which had a negative impact on US (and global) risk assets. Earnings season has continued with mostly positives, though Netflix missed the expectations of analysts on new subscribers, which was a broader negative for new media/ big tech. … Continued

Dollar Index negative signal (DXY forecast) Pound posts positives (GBPUSD forecast) Euro-Pound Reversing (EURGBP forecast)

A quiet week sees the US Dollar retreat to first support (DXY forecast) The Euro reaches its upside target (EURUSD forecast) Major reversal on Euro-Pound (EURGBP forecast)

Minor positive appears on Euro (EURUSD forecast) Dollar-Yen continues to outperform (USDJPY forecast) Small positive appear on Aussie and Kiwi and negative on USDCAD (AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments In various speaking engagements this past week Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated the US Central Bank’s dovish stance. This saw US yields (and global bonds) move back modestly to lower yield territory (from recent high yield extremes). The German Ifo business climate index for March posted at to 96.6 from 92.7 … Continued

Dollar Index and Dollar-Yen break up (DXY and USDJPY forecasts) Aussie and Kiwi post positives (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) EuroPound close to restarting the downtrend (EURGBP forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The focus this past week was on the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, statement and press conference, with a still very dovish stance emphasised again. However, a slight shift in the dot plot chart towards a possibly earlier than expected rate hike in 2022 from some members eventually … Continued

A very quiet week sees resistance drop on the Dollar Index and lowers the breakout point (DXY forecast) Positive appears on Dollar-CAD (USDCAD forecast) A major buy signal appears on Euro-Pound (EURGBP forecast)

Dollar reverses (DXY forecast) Euro posts positive along with Pound  (EURUSD and GBPUSD forecasts) Kiwi holds support and Dollar-CAD close to breaking down  (NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts)

Dollar Index break up (DXY forecast) Euro reaches first downside target (EURUSD forecast) Kiwi also hits support target (NZDUSD forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments This past week has been all about frenzied stock market exuberance, often a reflection of an inflating equity market “bubble” and the fears and concerns that this activity brings. GameStop shares have skyrocketed in the past week having already seen an aggressive rise in January, driven by a herd mentality of individual … Continued