Current Market Analysis

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The ongoing global spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant and the concerns regarding the new Mu variant, have impacted on growth expectations. In addition, ongoing supply chain worries have continued to fuel inflation fears and accentuate growth concerns. These factors leave global financial markets vulnerable to erratic, “risk off” moves. On Thursday … Continued

US Dollar send positive signal (DXY forecast) Euro signals negative (EURUSD forecast) Aussie negative statement (AUDUSD forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout economic event last week was the August US Employment report on Friday, which was disappointing, the headline Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data missed expectations, posting at 235K, with 750K expected. Prior monthly gains were revised higher though, whilst the Unemployment Rate fell to a pandemic-era low at 5.2%. Global Purchasing Managers … Continued

Euro stalls ahead of major upside target US Dollar Index major support looms below Kiwi reaches next upside target

Reversals in Aussie and Kiwi (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts)  NZDUSD is still below its breakdown point having signalled a false breakdown 

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout economic event last week was the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, but it ended up as a non-event, as Fed Chair Powell did not signal anything different than previously communicated with respect to removing policy accommodation. The chaos, unrest and terrorist activity in Afghanistan has had muted impact on global … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Last week, global financial markets were still digesting the big event of the prior week with the US Federal Reserve signalling a more hawkish tone than the financial markets had anticipated. Fed officials this past week have sought to calm markets and allay fears that they were about to start to tighten … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The big event of the past week was US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision and statement on Wednesday. The FOMC dot plot chart at least two quarter-point rate increases in 2023. This was a more hawkish tone than the US and global financial markets had anticipated, causing significant price … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Another quiet week in financial markets up until Friday, despite a busy data calendar. Markets kicked into life after Friday’s US Employment report, which saw 559K jobs added in May, which was slightly worse than expectations. Over the weekend, the G7 agreed a global minimum corporate tax of 15%. Global financial market … Continued

Dollar Index holds key weekly support Key support rises on the Euro Negative appears on Dollar Yen Negative also seen on Pound. Tug of war in Dollar-CAD, awaiting the breakout.

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A quiet week in financial markets with muted central bank activity and a relatively light data calendar. The standout on Wednesday was a more hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). This helped the New Zealand Dollar post firm gains across the Forex board. Cryptocurrencies remained volatile, with Bitcoin … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Inflation concerns remain, after the recent spike in US CPI data. The Fed Minutes on Wednesday highlighted an improving US economy but still far from the Fed’s goals, this did not have a significant impact on global financial markets. Tensions in Gaza have eased with an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced. The Indian COVID … Continued

Dollar Index repeatedly holds final critical support (DXY forecast)  Negative on Dollar-Yen (USDJPY forecast)  And on Kiwi (NZDUSD forecast)  These need to be confirmed by a breakdown through support

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The US Consumer Price Index released on Wednesday came in at 4.2% from a year ago and 0.8% from March, significantly higher than expected. This data heightened US and wider inflation concerns, which had already spooked Big Tech stocks through mid-May, pulling broader equity indices lower. Tensions in Israel have had little … Continued

US Dollar fails at key resistance Euro holds support Aussie and Kiwi need to confirm fresh negatives

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US President Biden announced his $1.8 trillion American Families Plan (human infrastructure) to complement the $2 trillion infrastructure plan announced at the end of March. Earnings season has continued with more positives, with Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook and Tesla all beating estimates (though the price action on these stocks has not been … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US President Biden announced a potentially significant increase in Capital Gains Tax (CGT) rates, which had a negative impact on US (and global) risk assets. Earnings season has continued with mostly positives, though Netflix missed the expectations of analysts on new subscribers, which was a broader negative for new media/ big tech. … Continued

Dollar Index negative signal (DXY forecast) Pound posts positives (GBPUSD forecast) Euro-Pound Reversing (EURGBP forecast)

A quiet week sees the US Dollar retreat to first support (DXY forecast) The Euro reaches its upside target (EURUSD forecast) Major reversal on Euro-Pound (EURGBP forecast)

Minor positive appears on Euro (EURUSD forecast) Dollar-Yen continues to outperform (USDJPY forecast) Small positive appear on Aussie and Kiwi and negative on USDCAD (AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments In various speaking engagements this past week Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated the US Central Bank’s dovish stance. This saw US yields (and global bonds) move back modestly to lower yield territory (from recent high yield extremes). The German Ifo business climate index for March posted at to 96.6 from 92.7 … Continued

Dollar Index and Dollar-Yen break up (DXY and USDJPY forecasts) Aussie and Kiwi post positives (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) EuroPound close to restarting the downtrend (EURGBP forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The focus this past week was on the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, statement and press conference, with a still very dovish stance emphasised again. However, a slight shift in the dot plot chart towards a possibly earlier than expected rate hike in 2022 from some members eventually … Continued

A very quiet week sees resistance drop on the Dollar Index and lowers the breakout point (DXY forecast) Positive appears on Dollar-CAD (USDCAD forecast) A major buy signal appears on Euro-Pound (EURGBP forecast)

Dollar reverses (DXY forecast) Euro posts positive along with Pound  (EURUSD and GBPUSD forecasts) Kiwi holds support and Dollar-CAD close to breaking down  (NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts)

Dollar Index break up (DXY forecast) Euro reaches first downside target (EURUSD forecast) Kiwi also hits support target (NZDUSD forecast)

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments This past week has been all about frenzied stock market exuberance, often a reflection of an inflating equity market “bubble” and the fears and concerns that this activity brings. GameStop shares have skyrocketed in the past week having already seen an aggressive rise in January, driven by a herd mentality of individual … Continued