Expert
US Dollar gains versus “risk” currencies and Pound
Pound, Aussie and Kiwi break down (GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD forecasts) Dollar Cad breaks up and hits major upside target (USDCAD forecast)
Current Market Analysis
The analysis of markets is a critical part of the trading decisions of any trader or investor. The individual trader or trading group may have a preference for: Macroeconomic Analysis, Microeconomics Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Behavioural Analysis, Quantitative Analysis and Technical Analysis. But whichever approach is employed, it is through this analysis that the trader decides:
- If to buy or sell an asset
- At which levels to enter a trade
- At which level to put the target to hopefully take profit on the trade
- Or, if the analysis proves incorrect, when and where is the trade wrong and at which level to exit the trade.
In this section we provide daily, real time market views including currency pairs forecasts, primarily through the approach of Technical Analysis, but also by utilising other approaches to market analysis. Many of our analyses also contains a video explaining the analyses. Click here for all video analyses and here for all forex news.
Beginner
European stock averages lead global indices higher
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout event in a light data week was the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with the ex-Food & Energy number coming in at 0.3%, below consensus estimates. On the fiscal side, the US Senate passed the infrastructure spending bill, approximately USD 1 trillion with about USD 560 billion of new … Continued
Expert
Major Negative on US Dollar Index
Negative USD signal (DXY forecast) Positive on Euro (EURUSD forecast) Pound holds support (GBPUSD forecast) So does Euro-Pound (EURGBP forecast)
Expert
US Dollar rebounds, GBPUSD and AUDUSD negative signals
US Dollar holds support (DXY forecast) Negatives appear on Pound and Aussie (GBPUSD and AUDUSD forecast) Yen holds support and reaches first upside target (USDJPY forecast)
Beginner
Global stocks rally on strong US Employment report
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout event in the week was Friday’s strong US Employment report, with 943K jobs added in June, notably above consensus estimates. Thursday saw the Bank of England Meeting and a slightly more hawkish tone stating that “some modest tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period is likely to be necessary”. … Continued
Beginner
Chinese stocks plunge, a “dovish” Fed and an Amazon sell off, but still a “risk on” mode
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A regulatory crackdown by Chinese authorities on large internet stocks saw Chinese share indices plunge and also saw some delayed and limited contagion effect on global stock averages. We got the Fed decision on Wednesday last week, with a slightly more hawkish tone in the statement, but a slightly more dovish tone … Continued
Intermediate
US Dollar posts positive signals
Positive on the US Dollar (DXY forecast) Negative on Pound (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie threatens to break down (AUDUSD forecast)
Beginner
A cautious week for Forex markets sees a reversal in US Dollar-Yen (USDJPY)
Plus an Aussie reversal (AUDUSD forecast) Kiwi holds support (NZDUSD forecast) Pound returns to the breakdown point (GBPUSD forecast)
Beginner
Euro needs to confirm negative pattern
Euro negative threat (EURUSD forecast) US Dollar Index close to key resistance (DXY forecast) Pound breaks lower (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie posts negative with no support (AUDUSD forecast) US Dollar-CAD breaks up (USDCAD forecast)
Beginner
Delta variant spread and Fed fears sees “risk off” market reactions
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial markets reacted to ongoing fears of more hawkish monetary policy in the US, alongside concerns around the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant globally. As we will look at below, this is sent global bond markets higher (to lower yields, led by the US), whilst world stock averages sold off … Continued
Intermediate
Positive Euro Signals
Euro posts major positives against the US Dollar and on the cross rates (EURUSD, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURGBP forecast) Positive on Pound (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie and Kiwi hold major support (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) US Dollar-CAD posts fresh negative (USDCAD forecast)
Beginner
Share averages stay strong through US Employment report
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for June mostly beat expectations on Thursday 1st July, both from Markit for many major economies and from the US Institute of Supply Managers (ISM), with the Manufacturing PMI coming in at 60.6%, beating consensus for a 13th straight month above 50.0%. The US Employment report … Continued
Intermediate
Risk of a negative US Dollar correction
Dollar Index posts negative (DXY forecast) Euro positive after holding key support (EURUSD forecast) Pound posts positive at support (GBPUSD forecast) Kiwi holds major weekly and monthly support (NZDUSD forecast)
Intermediate
Oil Boom
Crude oil has recovered all the lost ground of 2020 The global market is in deficit OPEC+ is ready to increase supply whilst shattering the current price structure Look for the market to test the localised high of October 2018 “…Give me one more oil boom before I die …..Give me one more chance to say … Continued
Intermediate
Stocks shrug off hawkish Fed, pushing higher into late Q2
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Last week, global financial markets were still digesting the big event of the prior week with the US Federal Reserve signalling a more hawkish tone than the financial markets had anticipated. Fed officials this past week have sought to calm markets and allay fears that they were about to start to tighten … Continued
Expert
US Dollar holds key support
US Dollar support focus (DXY forecast) Pound send positive signal, but resistance above (GBPUSD forecast) Positives also on Aussie and Kiwi, but still see resistances (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) Negatives on US Dollar-CAD signals end of uptrend (USDCAD forecast)
Intermediate
More hawkish than anticipated Fed dominates markets
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The big event of the past week was US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision and statement on Wednesday. The FOMC dot plot chart at least two quarter-point rate increases in 2023. This was a more hawkish tone than the US and global financial markets had anticipated, causing significant price … Continued
Expert
US Dollar surges after a more hawkish Fed
Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) Pound support disappears (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie breaks down and Kiwi closes below major support (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) US Dollar-CAD breaks up (USDCAD forecast)
Beginner
Stocks and Bonds rally, despite inflationary signals
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US CPI data was higher than expectations, with the headline data posting at 5% year-on-year for May, at its fastest pace since August 2008, with the core rate at 3.8%, its highest for nearly three decades. But Bond markets and stock indices shrugged off this data, with moves to lower yields and … Continued
Intermediate
Caterpillar: Bug or Butterfly?
Caterpillar has endured a torrid week The long-standing impulsive channel is under threat The company is looking to pay a larger dividend Look for the market to start buying this stock as the week wears on Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) ended the week in poor form as it closed down by 5.03, or 2.23% to print … Continued
Intermediate
Stock averages rally on US Employment report
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Another quiet week in financial markets up until Friday, despite a busy data calendar. Markets kicked into life after Friday’s US Employment report, which saw 559K jobs added in May, which was slightly worse than expectations. Over the weekend, the G7 agreed a global minimum corporate tax of 15%. Global financial market … Continued
Intermediate
Dollar holds key support
Dollar Index holds key weekly support Key support rises on the Euro Negative appears on Dollar Yen Negative also seen on Pound. Tug of war in Dollar-CAD, awaiting the breakout.
Intermediate
Hold Me In Your Lap Of Luxury
The deal for LVMH to fully acquire Tiffany was completed in January The market for luxury goods was under pressure throughout 2020 The sentiment over sales performance in 2021 is much improved LVMH SE has enjoyed a good run; there is more to come Looking back to January, the decision by LVMH SE, the world’s … Continued
Intermediate
European averages take the lead as indices probe higher
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A quiet week in financial markets with muted central bank activity and a relatively light data calendar. The standout on Wednesday was a more hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). This helped the New Zealand Dollar post firm gains across the Forex board. Cryptocurrencies remained volatile, with Bitcoin … Continued
Expert
US Dollar Holds Key Final Support
Positives appear on US Dollar-Yen (USDJPY forecast) Negative signalled on Aussie (AUDUSD forecast) Dollar-CAD posts extremely rare positives! (USDCAD forecast)
Intermediate
Stock and forex markets hesitant
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Inflation concerns remain, after the recent spike in US CPI data. The Fed Minutes on Wednesday highlighted an improving US economy but still far from the Fed’s goals, this did not have a significant impact on global financial markets. Tensions in Gaza have eased with an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced. The Indian COVID … Continued
Intermediate
US Dollar testing (but holding) critical support
Dollar Index repeatedly holds final critical support (DXY forecast) Negative on Dollar-Yen (USDJPY forecast) And on Kiwi (NZDUSD forecast) These need to be confirmed by a breakdown through support
Intermediate
Plug In My Cable
The top question right now is “What is the outlook for inflation?” The expectation is for higher prices in both the U.S. and U.K. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI data for May, out this week looks set to turn lower Look for the proof of higher lows on Monday as a reason to plug into cable … Continued
Intermediate
Inflation spooks Big Tech, but stocks rebound from weakness
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The US Consumer Price Index released on Wednesday came in at 4.2% from a year ago and 0.8% from March, significantly higher than expected. This data heightened US and wider inflation concerns, which had already spooked Big Tech stocks through mid-May, pulling broader equity indices lower. Tensions in Israel have had little … Continued
Intermediate
US Dollar recovery stalls
US Dollar fails at key resistance Euro holds support Aussie and Kiwi need to confirm fresh negatives
Expert
US Dollar failed bull signals
Dollar Index fails to confirm bullish signal and then breaks down Euro holds support and breaks up Positives on Aussie and Kiwi US Dollar-CAD accelerates lower
Intermediate
Trading The Copperline
Copper has been moving higher since November 1 The research whilst mixed, has a bullish bias The need for infrastructure rebuilding and electrification of the auto space bodes well Look for prices to test U.S. Dollars 3.62/lb “… Even the old folks never knew Why they call it like they do I was wondering … Continued
Intermediate
Stocks cautious, despite strong results from Big Tech – USD gains
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US President Biden announced his $1.8 trillion American Families Plan (human infrastructure) to complement the $2 trillion infrastructure plan announced at the end of March. Earnings season has continued with more positives, with Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook and Tesla all beating estimates (though the price action on these stocks has not been … Continued
Expert
Significant positive US Dollar signals to end April
Major sell on Euro (EURUSD forecast) Negative on Pound (GBPUSD forecast) Major support on Aussie switches to resistance (AUDUSD forecast) US Dollar-Canadian Dollar breaks down (USDCAD forecast)
Intermediate
SMACK THE SPAC
SPAC issuance value almost matched IPO’s Listing process needs sensible and firm regulation Investors must evaluate each prospectus fully Collateralized SPAC funds of funds could arise What Is a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)? A special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) is a company with no commercial operations that is formed specifically to raise capital through … Continued
Intermediate
US Dollar weakens, stock averages stay firm
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US President Biden announced a potentially significant increase in Capital Gains Tax (CGT) rates, which had a negative impact on US (and global) risk assets. Earnings season has continued with mostly positives, though Netflix missed the expectations of analysts on new subscribers, which was a broader negative for new media/ big tech. … Continued
Expert
US Dollar under negative pressures
US Dollar Index breaks down (DXY forecast) Euro breaks up (EURUSD forecast)
Intermediate
Dollar Index breaks key support
Dollar Index negative signal (DXY forecast) Pound posts positives (GBPUSD forecast) Euro-Pound Reversing (EURGBP forecast)
Intermediate
Gold Dangles A “Carat”
In the past year “Risk On” assets have been in favour The past path of gold has not looked appealing, nut now that is changing The economic path to recovery is improving as are inflation prospects There is a case to open a speculative long on gold as the technicals look encouraging In times of … Continued
Beginner
Stock markets stay very strong, US Dollar sets back
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US Retail Sales data for March came in extremely strong on Thursday, beating expectation with a rise of 9.8% MoM. Earnings season has kicked off in earnest in the US, with the Banks and Financials leading the way, in most instances beating expectations. The European vaccine rollout has improved, although it still … Continued
Beginner
Stock averages surge to all-time highs, growth stocks re-energizing
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments On the Central Bank side last week, we had the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes released on Wednesday and Fed Chairman Powell spoke on Thursday. The FOMC Meeting Minutes and speech by Powell simply reiterated a still ongoing dovish stance. This has seen US yields retreat from multi-year yield highs … Continued
Intermediate
Euro posts solid technical gains versus USD and GBP
A quiet week sees the US Dollar retreat to first support (DXY forecast) The Euro reaches its upside target (EURUSD forecast) Major reversal on Euro-Pound (EURGBP forecast)
Beginner
US yields hit multi-year highs AND stock averages at record levels
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The global Market and US Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reports were out on Thursday and were broadly better than expected. The US Employment report for March was released on Friday and the Non-Farm Payroll data far exceeded the anticipated number of 675K, posting at 916K, whilst … Continued
Intermediate
Minor US Dollar corrective losses (but USDJPY says strong)
Minor positive appears on Euro (EURUSD forecast) Dollar-Yen continues to outperform (USDJPY forecast) Small positive appear on Aussie and Kiwi and negative on USDCAD (AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts)
Beginner
Non-Farm Payrolls Proves To Be A Good Signal For Dollar Bulls
Non-Farm Payrolls booked the best gain in seven-months The contrast in vaccine strategy and stimulus spending between the U.S and Europe is striking The economic paths of the U.S. cf. Eurozone and Japan are diverging The Dollar Index is set to rotate higher in an impulsive channel It is an odd fact that Good Friday … Continued
Intermediate
Yields correct lower, but US Dollar strengthens
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments In various speaking engagements this past week Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated the US Central Bank’s dovish stance. This saw US yields (and global bonds) move back modestly to lower yield territory (from recent high yield extremes). The German Ifo business climate index for March posted at to 96.6 from 92.7 … Continued
Intermediate
Mixed US Dollar signals – FxExplained.co.uk
Dollar Index and Dollar-Yen break up (DXY and USDJPY forecasts) Aussie and Kiwi post positives (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) EuroPound close to restarting the downtrend (EURGBP forecast)
Intermediate
Sterling To Book Further Gains
EURGBP is in a corrective channel The contrast in vaccine strategy between the U.K and Europe is striking The Eurozone economy is heading toward another recession Sterling is going to continue its outperformance If one looks at the One-Month chart, shown below in Figure 1, one can see the spot price of EURGBP has shown … Continued
Intermediate
Higher bond yields in focus; growth -> value stock rotation continues
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The focus this past week was on the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, statement and press conference, with a still very dovish stance emphasised again. However, a slight shift in the dot plot chart towards a possibly earlier than expected rate hike in 2022 from some members eventually … Continued
Intermediate
Forex Signals from Shaun Downey
A very quiet week sees resistance drop on the Dollar Index and lowers the breakout point (DXY forecast) Positive appears on Dollar-CAD (USDCAD forecast) A major buy signal appears on Euro-Pound (EURGBP forecast)
Beginner
Value stocks rally as growth stocks rebound, despite higher yields
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments President Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill was passed into law this week. A lower-than-expected US CPI report on Wednesday calmed inflationary worries and built on the strong US jobs report from the prior week. This sent value stocks surging higher and allowed for a rebound in growth stocks, which continue to … Continued
Intermediate
Dollar Reverses Midweek
Dollar reverses (DXY forecast) Euro posts positive along with Pound (EURUSD and GBPUSD forecasts) Kiwi holds support and Dollar-CAD close to breaking down (NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts)
Beginner
US Dollar gains with higher yields, with stocks choppy
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Another relatively quiet week for global financial markets from a macroeconomic and geopolitical perspective, but as at the end of February price action across the major asset classes was still volatile. The ongoing development last week was the continuing surge in global yields, particularly in the US and notably at the longer … Continued
Intermediate
US Dollar continues to strengthen
Dollar Index break up (DXY forecast) Euro reaches first downside target (EURUSD forecast) Kiwi also hits support target (NZDUSD forecast)
Intermediate
Any Old Iron
Iron Ore Fines spent the last month rotating in an impulsive channel There is disruption to shipments from Brazil Chinese mills are at over 90% capacity and growth plans are ambitious Prices are going to rise early in the week and a break over USD200/Tonne is seen If one looks at the One-Month chart, shown … Continued
Intermediate
GameStop (GME) frenzy > wider “bubble” concerns > stocks plunge
Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments This past week has been all about frenzied stock market exuberance, often a reflection of an inflating equity market “bubble” and the fears and concerns that this activity brings. GameStop shares have skyrocketed in the past week having already seen an aggressive rise in January, driven by a herd mentality of individual … Continued
Beginner
Q1/Q2 Elliott Wave views for the Forex Majors – Exclusive interview with Jim Martens!
Here is an in-depth interview with Jim Martens, Elliott Wave International’s (EWI) Senior Currency Strategist and editor of the trader-focused Currency Pro Service. In this interview, we will discuss the Major currency pairs, including EURUSD, the US Dollar Index (DXY), GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD and USDCAD. Here is a link to a free report on trading … Continued
Intermediate
WTI prices in 2020 and outlook for 2021
The year 2020 was a major crisis for oil prices as the COVID-19 pandemic destroyed demand with economies shutting down. According to IATA, passenger demand for air travel fell in February by 80% in Europe and USA and by 67% in Asia Pacific region. Prices collapsed in March to an unprecedented historic low. Oil practically … Continued
Beginner
Global Markets Outlook 2021
Initial Parameters: Chart analysis is technical and taken from medium-term historical pattern Technical projections based on a twelve-month time horizon Targets set are based on the most recent, significant technical adjustment Analysis is based on Elliot Wave and Fibonacci techniques Technical analysis only guides; exogenous factors can shock any market Markets, being capricious, forecasts are … Continued
Beginner
Macro Watch: Bubble Trouble
VIP Guest Interview with Michael Pento (of Pento Portfolio Strategies) In this in depth interview, Steve Miley and Michael Pento talk all things markets, looking at the potential bubbles in US (and global) stock markets and also in Bond markets They look at inflation risks, the threat for US and global asset prices and interest rates Could the US election be pin that pops … Continued
Intermediate
FAANG stocks in the spotlight
In today’s report we are going to take a technical analysis look at the FAANG shares, Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) and Google (GOOG, Alphabet). Facebook (FB) A firm June rebound from above a key March support at 159.28 (from 160.24) has neutralised the intermediate-term bear trend that was set up with … Continued
Intermediate
Stephen Pope interviewed by Bill Hubard
Here we have an interview with FXExplained.co.uk contributor Stephen Pope (also Managing Partner of Spotlight Group PLC) and Trade.com Chief Economist Bill Hubard. They discuss the Fed Meeting Minutes released in early October and its impact on the US bond markets. Furthermore, the lack of follow-through on the fiscal side from the Trump administration. Also, … Continued